RolStoppable said: I am extrapolating month 3 sales based on month 2 sales and the knowledge that Switch is still selling through its stock quickly. There's no good reason to assume that month 3 sales will be notably lower than month 2 sales. But even ignoring that. VGC has been showing weekly sales of ~200k after the launch month. Wii U had weekly sales of ~40k. That's a huge gap. |
You're right about that. Maybe my prediction doesn't seem so realistic right now. But keep in mind that console sales tend to become more frontloaded as the generations pass by. I still think my prediction has a good chance to be close to reality.
RolStoppable said: Your Wii U breakdown combines 2012 and 2013 for a period of 14 months that includes two holiday seasons. This skews the numbers and is not an accurate or honest representation of how Wii U performed. |
13 months and that includes one and a half (or less) Christmas seasons. It skews the numbers a little bit but it's still far better than 2012 being 1 month.
RolStoppable said: My prediction for Switch lifetime sales is more than 100m units. I am obviously factoring in that Switch is the successor to both the Wii U and 3DS and that's the most blatant mistake in your prediction. You are aware that your prediction will be very wrong if Switch is also replacing the 3DS. |
Yes I am. I had to accept the risk. As you are accepting the opposite risk by assuming NS is replacing 3DS.
You're aware that you're predicting for NS less than a half of the 7th gen and little more than the 8th gen (worst gen in Nintendo's history), right?
RolStoppable said: My signature contains the link to one of my threads, but I post it for convenience because many members have disabled signatures in their VGC settings. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224719 The thread was created shortly after the Switch presentation in January and calls out all predictions of 50m or less. This means that I was and am so confident in Switch that I consider anything below 60m ridiculous. |
Very interesting. I didn't have the time to read it yet but I've noticed there's a topic just for NS's lifetime sales predictions. The poll isn't actually well conceived because the higher numbers are naturally more spread. Anyway, I thought people were more optimistic about NS. It seems that I'm not that isolated.
Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 100M XOne: 70M WiiU: 25M
Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 100M XOne: 50M WiiU: 18M
Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 90M XOne: 40M WiiU: 15M Switch: 20M
Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020: PS4: 110M XOne: 50M WiiU: 14M Switch: 65M