Nothing tragic about it, at least not of a magnitude that switch will sell below 30mil units as the OPs poll suggest.
And I see it as a missed oppurtunity for 3rd parties rather than a great loss to Nintendo. I'm sure that even some very late ports, such as GTA V, would sell millions on the system.
I also think that almost any AAA 3rd party game that would have been released in the period between zelda and MK8D would sell north of a million.
The current situation is a big win for Nintendo. If they manage to produce enough units, switch will easily surpass total Wii U numbers in its first year, and almost every full-priced million seller will come from Nintendo (except FIFA and maybe Skyrim).
It is also amazing how Nintendo is slowly covering many genres, producing highly reviewed games in any of them. I'm not saying that Splatoon and CoD are similar games, but I'm glad to see that they are experimenting with new IPs while constantly polishing and innovating in their established game series.