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Forums - Nintendo - Bloomberg: Nintendo Traders Signal Switch Could Be Bigger Hit Than the Wii

zorg1000 said:
i think alot of people on this site dont understand what a "casual" gamer is.

its the 8 year old boy who plays Minecraft & Skylanders. the 12 year old girl who plays Just Dance & Style Savvy. the 19 year old college kid who plays Call of Duty or FIFA with his roommates after class. the mom who plays Mario Kart to bond with her kids. the the lapsed gamer who doesnt play nearly as much as they used to because of work/family/etc but still plays occasionally to wind down and relax. and yes its the grandma who plays Wii Fit to try getting in shape.

all the comments like, "Switch cant sell Wii numbers without a Wii Sports level success", just dont make sense.

what a device needs in order to be a "casual" hit is to have an accessible/convenient concept with an effective marketing/advertising campaign, a price point that the market finds acceptable for what the device offers and a steady flow of software that appeals to multiple demographics.

whether or not Switch meets all these criteria and will be a huge success remains to be seen but considering that 3DS+Wii U will reach 85 million while not hitting all those critera than i dont think 100 million is out of the question.

Sorry, that's the casual audience people talk about. Those are just gamers who play mainstream games. Casual gamers means people who don't game like the senior citizens who bought a Wii for Wii Sports and never played any other sort of game.



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RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

Switch's first big test will be how it sells in May/June/July once the launch boom dies down but before Splatoon 2 hits. That should give us some idea as to where its baseline will end up.

The first big test is April. Lots of people expected this console to do as bad as Wii U or only marginally better.

Since Switch looks to pass this first test with flying colors, the real test has already been postponed to a later date. Don't say that Wii U had a good launch as well, because it didn't have one.

You are better off by postponing the next big test to June right away, because Mario Kart 8 Deluxe in late April makes a pretty good case for strong enough momentum through May.

I'm pretty sure a lot more people on this board were/are expecting the Switch to outsell the 3DS.



Lawlight said:
zorg1000 said:
i think alot of people on this site dont understand what a "casual" gamer is.

its the 8 year old boy who plays Minecraft & Skylanders. the 12 year old girl who plays Just Dance & Style Savvy. the 19 year old college kid who plays Call of Duty or FIFA with his roommates after class. the mom who plays Mario Kart to bond with her kids. the the lapsed gamer who doesnt play nearly as much as they used to because of work/family/etc but still plays occasionally to wind down and relax. and yes its the grandma who plays Wii Fit to try getting in shape.

all the comments like, "Switch cant sell Wii numbers without a Wii Sports level success", just dont make sense.

what a device needs in order to be a "casual" hit is to have an accessible/convenient concept with an effective marketing/advertising campaign, a price point that the market finds acceptable for what the device offers and a steady flow of software that appeals to multiple demographics.

whether or not Switch meets all these criteria and will be a huge success remains to be seen but considering that 3DS+Wii U will reach 85 million while not hitting all those critera than i dont think 100 million is out of the question.

Sorry, that's the casual audience people talk about. Those are just gamers who play mainstream games. Casual gamers means people who don't game like the senior citizens who bought a Wii for Wii Sports and never played any other sort of game.

nope, a casual gamer is someone who plays games casually as in maybe a few hours per week as a way to relax.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Lawlight said:

Sorry, that's the casual audience people talk about. Those are just gamers who play mainstream games. Casual gamers means people who don't game like the senior citizens who bought a Wii for Wii Sports and never played any other sort of game.

nope, a casual gamer is someone who plays games casually as in maybe a few hours per week as a way to relax.

Then what's the tern for the Wii owners?



iron_megalith said:
Nautilus said:

Except it is both a handheld and a home console.

No it's not. Mainly it is a handheld console. Like I said, the dock absolutely has nothing special. The whole hardware is inside the Switch "Handheld" device. Connecting it to the dock just removes the restrictions.

Another example Laptop is not a PC.

Except it is a hybrid.You dont need any chips in the dock itself for it to be a home console.It just needs to have the functionality of one.Home consoles are more of a concept, rather than a piece of tecnology.A home console is something that plays mainly games(as in it is optimized for that) and displays that image on the tv, while you control it via a controller, but the unit itself is not portable.And the Switch is ALSO that(you can treat it as only that, if you so like).If we dont take that concept as the definition, then the PS4 and XOne are actually just very limited PCs, that happens to only play games.

The Switch is both parts equal home and handheld console.I can understand why you would prefer using more one or the other, and thus being more of a handheld for you, but its a hybrid at heart.And hey, if you wanna go by the official statement, the Switch is a home console(according to Nintendo), so there is that.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

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Lawlight said:
zorg1000 said:

nope, a casual gamer is someone who plays games casually as in maybe a few hours per week as a way to relax.

Then what's the tern for the Wii owners?

most of them were casuals like i described a few posts back.

"its the 8 year old boy who plays Minecraft & Skylanders. the 12 year old girl who plays Just Dance & Style Savvy. the 19 year old college kid who plays Call of Duty or FIFA with his roommates after class. the mom who plays Mario Kart to bond with her kids. the the lapsed gamer who doesnt play nearly as much as they used to because of work/family/etc but still plays occasionally to wind down and relax. and yes its the grandma who plays Wii Fit to try getting in shape."

are you really pretending that people who bought a Wii for one game then never played again were the majority of Wii owners? sorry but they werent



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Lawlight said:

Then what's the tern for the Wii owners?

I'm a Wii owner. I own over 40 games for the system including titles like Resident Evil 4, Silent Hill Shattered Memories, Sin & Punishment 2, Xenoblade, and Fatal Frame, and I've clocked over a thousand hours on Monster Hunter Tri. Am I a casual?



zorg1000 said:
Lawlight said:

Then what's the tern for the Wii owners?

most of them were casuals like i described a few posts back.

"its the 8 year old boy who plays Minecraft & Skylanders. the 12 year old girl who plays Just Dance & Style Savvy. the 19 year old college kid who plays Call of Duty or FIFA with his roommates after class. the mom who plays Mario Kart to bond with her kids. the the lapsed gamer who doesnt play nearly as much as they used to because of work/family/etc but still plays occasionally to wind down and relax. and yes its the grandma who plays Wii Fit to try getting in shape."

are you really pretending that people who bought a Wii for one game then never played again were the majority of Wii owners? sorry but they werent

Even Nintendo themselves dileneates games by using terms like core and casual, look at the recent interview with Koizumi and Takahashi, he basically states Zelda is for core players, 1,2 Switch is for casuals. Everyone here who knows this industry knows basically what is meant by "casual". 

It's someone who doesn't have a big pre-existing interest in video games, doesn't play much on a daily basis, isn't even able to play most games with any real modern complexity, gaming is not a big part of their life, etc. etc. etc. 

A teenager who can hold his own in Call of Duty and NBA 2K is not a casual player. He simply likes the more popular games of the day, that doesn't mean he can't play something like ... Nier or some more niche style of game, he/she just doesn't want to on the basis of taste. 

The Wii is dead. And it's never happening again. Nintendo can't even get that audience, which has been cannibalized by smartphones/tablets to pay even $10 for a 2D Mario game anymore, even with a $0 hardware cost. Because iOS/Android has co-opted that audience and changed what they value gaming as to basically nothing but free. They expect nothing but free games now, won't even pay a $1-$2 for most games. 

We're seeing that with 1,2 Switch which is not really taking off in a big way with the audience that Wii Sports/Fit, or even stuff like Carnival Games or Just Dance scored big with. It's selling about on par with Nintendo Land in Japan (a bit worse actually), and we know Nintendo Land took the Wii U nowhere. 

Switch has to create it's own legacy, we need to just let the Wii brand (which includes Wii U) just stay dead. It's dead for a good reason. I'd argue Switch is much better off focusing on core gamers (as in people who already play complex games and like to play a lot of them) is actually a market for that and excitement within that market for Switch. Nintendo have no idea what casuals want anymore, their only huge breakout success with casuals since 2009 (going on 8 years now) has been Pokemon Go, probably largely because they had nothing to do with it. 



Nautilus said:
iron_megalith said:

No it's not. Mainly it is a handheld console. Like I said, the dock absolutely has nothing special. The whole hardware is inside the Switch "Handheld" device. Connecting it to the dock just removes the restrictions.

Another example Laptop is not a PC.

Except it is a hybrid.You dont need any chips in the dock itself for it to be a home console.It just needs to have the functionality of one.Home consoles are more of a concept, rather than a piece of tecnology.A home console is something that plays mainly games(as in it is optimized for that) and displays that image on the tv, while you control it via a controller, but the unit itself is not portable.And the Switch is ALSO that(you can treat it as only that, if you so like).If we dont take that concept as the definition, then the PS4 and XOne are actually just very limited PCs, that happens to only play games.

The Switch is both parts equal home and handheld console.I can understand why you would prefer using more one or the other, and thus being more of a handheld for you, but its a hybrid at heart.And hey, if you wanna go by the official statement, the Switch is a home console(according to Nintendo), so there is that.

Great post.

Its funny how people see Switch hardware and say it's handled not home console only because has mobile hardware in it or Switch itself has mobile form factor, but dont realise that whole Switch is made from ground that can act, to be used and to give full home experience also, and actual Switch does that.

It's very obvious that Switch is true hybrid console of home console and handheld console, and how it would be used depends only from each consumer.

 

Magnus said:
sethnintendo said:

NFS: Most Wanted U was superior to PS3 and 360 versions because Criterion actually put decent effort into the port.  Granted it wasn't launch day but if it was then it would have been like all the other rushed EA ports.  Best port EA did for the Wii U (and last game) which they then punished Criterion for the poor sales even though it wasn't their fault with the release without all DLC included, marketing and price.

"Criterion Games has used the Wii U to conjure up the definitive console version of Need for Speed: Most Wanted. It's not an overwhelming advance that matches the visual fidelity of the PC version in all regards, but additions and tweaks are numerous and well-considered. At no expense to the frame-rate, textures stand at the midway point in the quality spectrum, between the more blurry assets we're seeing on PS3 and 360 and the highest possible settings on PC. It's a worthwhile upgrade that extends to reflection draw too, with all other visual facets being identical, and the frame-rate coming away smoother regardless."

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-need-for-speed-most-wanted-wii-u-face-off

Need for Speed was not a CPU intensive game so it could run well on Wii U. But most 360 and PS3 games weren't like that. EA broke with Nintendo because the Wii U couldn't run Frostbite.

EA (like most other 3rd parties) abandoned Wii U because terrible sales of Wii U.



We shall see after the Ninty fanbase is exhausted and it needs to sale to the PS/X/PC crowd and the Phone crowd.

Zelda gave the Nin Base a reason to jump in hard to the Switch, something the wiiu failed to do. Shall see if they sales maintain when the droughts hit or the inferior 3rd party games are shunned and 3rd parties start announcing they are killing support.

on a plus side the faster they kill the 3ds the more games this gets, full ninty software firing pushing all out.