First of all, the point about games is a bit ridiculous. Of course it doesn't have the support of major franchises yet because it was only released 6 months ago, and games that are being released now started production way back when everyone thought the PS3 would be the market leader for the next generation. We're already seeing huge amounts of resources being diverted to the Wii, and where those "big" franchises you named go after their next part is anybody's guess. FF and MGS are probably under pretty hefty contracts to release their latest iterations only on the PS, but after that it's either move out to the Wii or loose even more money trying to help Sony.

Secondly, many of those games you list aren't all that significant anyway. Only the first DMC broke a million in all three major territories, and it's been in decline ever since. MGS and RE have been going downhill all the time as well, despite their latest parts being my personal favorites. The best selling franchises by far for the PS2 were Gran Turismo and GTA. The other isn't seeing a new games before 2008, and the other is multi-platform.

As for the competition, they're hardly much better than last round. Sony is doing undeniably far worse, and the Xbox 360 is just barely selling more than its predecessor was at this point of its life.

Oh, and since when has China been wealthier than Russia? GDP per capita is honestly a rather insufficient way to measure a country's wealth, but Russia's is almost twice that of China's.

Wii is all hype :( Put it this way who are the target audience? Nintendo Fans and New players. Now New gamers are not going to be committed to long term gaming, imo. I think that after 2 years we will see a decline. The other nintendo consoles ie Game Cube had some good games but was pretty much dead. The wii is the same just more of a gimick. I have tried the nunchuck and I say gimme the six axis any day. Ok I'm bias, but No controller can match the playstations :D now all we need is rumble in the six a xis and it will be unbeatable :D

I think in winning this console generation it has a decent chance, but in matching what the PS2 did I think that's probably a less than 1% chance. As the 360 and PS3 get cheaper over the next few years their sales will keep increasing, and the Wii I don't think will get as big a bounce from price cuts as it already is assumed as a reasonably priced system. The Wii I think slows down sales wise after 2008, not because of hype as much as the 360 and expecially PS3 making inroads to the casual gamer. The games will look so amazing and there will be too many big franchises to ignore them. I think the Wii's success is great, but the HD systems will shine eventually. The DS is a system capable of selling amazing for 4 or 5 years, but I don't see that with the Wii. You'll have two great years followed by decent sales the rest of it's lifetime I think.

The PS2 expanded the market, as a result more people play video games and sales are higher. The Wii is expanding the market. The Wii is simply not limited by the boundaries previously set as the PS2 was not limited to previous boundaries.

Based on the launch the Wii has had, it is possible. Look at the DS -- it's about to eclipse the PS2 in total installed base in Japan. If the Wii can follow in the DS' footsteps in terms of attracting new customers then it would have the potential to topple the PS2. However, it would require a library nearly as strong as the PS2's library to beat it. And that's not something we'll be able to accurately predict for years yet and something that could not become a reality for at least five or six years. The PS2 isn't selling in Japan anymore. Just the US. And the lack of new games should spell slowing sales for the system within a year or so.

Now if only Nintendo would include Dvd-player and bigger flash (like 1gb or 2gb or just enable playing from flash card, which is unlikely) to the Wii's next iteration... And don't come here saying that who needs Dvd-player anymore, now that HD/Br is out. Hd penetration is still way too small to threat regural dvd sales. (And it will still be in 2008 and also maybe in 2009)

Wii (GPU: 243) >Xbox (GPU: 233) >Gamecube (GPU:167). Wii is clearly a lot more powerful than the Gamecube, and slightly more powerful than the Xbox.

I think it could, it depends. If MS and Sony dont provide a good competition then it could. If MS or Sony take a big percent of the market then it would be tough.

The real reason that the Wii won't outsell the PS2: When you Wii breaks, you get it fixed for free When your PS2 breaks, you have to buy a new one Since so many PS2s broke, i would put the actual PS2 sales around 80 million. That is my guess at total PS2 sales, if nobody had to buy another one when theirs broke.

Look at the wii launch alligned with the DS ad PS2. http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=All&cons3=DS&reg3=All&align=1 The wii doesn't have to sell anything for 4 months, and it would still be outselling the PS2 and DS. Even if wii sales fall off considerably because supply finally meets day 0 demand and no one else wants one, and holiday sales remind us of 360 sales in japan during April, the graphs would cross about a year and half from launch dates. So I agree, that it is likely the wii will outsell the PS2. That said, the PS2 starts to pick up speed after 2 years on the market, and after 7 years it's still selling a respectable amount. Predicting the wii will oustell the ps2 for the first year and a half is a lot safer (would be hard not to happen!) statement then predicting it to outsell it during the entire lifetime of the systems... Plus, I think the wii is the best second console system. It's low price means a lot of people with a 360 will get one, and a lot of people with a ps3 will get one, and a lot of people with a ps2 will get one, and a lot of people who never would have wanted a video game will get one for bowling or golf. It has the potential to beat the PS2 sales in as short as 4 years.