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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD Prediction: Zelda BotW will do a Whopping 10mil Lifetime! Update 10mil Achieved

Geralt said:
TorterraBoy said:

Haha you'll be wrong again just like how you thought Zelda would score below 90

The reviews are rigged but consumers are not!

 

Not sure if you know this but your actually downplaying yourself right now. How?

Reviews are rigged right according to you, so why would you make that "zelda will be under a 90 on metacritic" thread?

 

Oh and when LoZ BotW sells over 4mil before summer ends lets not say that was rigged too



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From what I've seen, if you own either console you should own this game... so I'm not sure that 10 million is out of the question. Zelda has never been a launch title before, and I really think it will have about the highest attach rates with the Switch that we've seen from Zelda given the lack of alternatives.

Otherwise, people with Wii U's have been waiting ages for this one. 10 million seems plausible over the coming couple of years, especially as past Zelda's were often hurt by coming out later in their console's lifespans.



areason said:
RolStoppable said:

Those people wouldn't be handheld gamers in the past, because before Switch there was no such thing as a high quality open world RPG on a portable device. You cannot draw a definite conclusion that they have no interest in portability when we haven't had a scenario for a proper analysis yet.

I asked you for an estimate. You proposed that Nintendo should cripple their Switch marketing message in order to appeal to such gamers. You took issue with me saying that you are unreasonable. You kinda have to throw out a number to have any sort of argument, but I suspect that you begin to realize that your proposal didn't make sense. You'll be either stuck with a number that is too low to justify the obvious drawback of your proposal or you'll have a number that makes you prone to get ridiculed.

You can't assume that everyone wants to play on the go, just because their wasn't such games in the past doesn't mean they would get a handhed

How is it going to cripple the switche's marketing message, they should just simply announce that their is a seperate bundle, it doesn't needs adds or marketing. You're forgeting the millions of gamers on the internet who are exposed to gaming news every day through youtube, social media, and forums. 

My proposal makes perfect sense, i'm not a statistical firm in order to throw out numbers for you, and my proposal has no drawback at all. 

The sale numbers of the pro controller alone show that people do not want to play using the joycons. 

If  and it's a real big if, the market demand was still strong, after taking away people like me who bought their Pro controller to have another option rather than any dislike for the official controller and that  demand wasn't being satisfied by selling stand alone pro controllers, Nintendo rather than eliminating the joy cons need simply put a pro controller in the box and sell it at a price point that makes it cheaper than buying each separately.



Hmm, it's not impossible, but I don't think so. I think 7-8 million is a safe bet though, I won't be surprised to find that it may have a 60-75% attach rate on the Switch for the first two months alone. I also think the Switch version will sell the most, by a decent margin.



I so hope it does. Zelda deserved a 10m+ seller generations ago.

Anyway I don't dare to go against you on this, because your predictions are like, always right, no matter how ludicrous they at first seem lol.



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I'm 98 % sure it will!



Official member of VGC's Nintendo family, approved by the one and only RolStoppable. I feel honored.

That would be soooo cool! Would be great if it could break the 10m limit, but I'm kinda doubtfull honestly. 8m seems like a sure bet though



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Dark_Feanor said:
No, there is just no user base.

the reality is a massive # of people will buy Breath of the Wild when they get the system. So as the userbase grows over the next year or two, so do Breath of the Wild sales.

I think the critical reception of the game has sort of guranteed that Breath of the Wild may have a competitive chance of making it to like 10 million total. Bear in mind of the 13 million Wii U owners, we probably have to imagine at least a couple of million of them are going to pick up Breath of the Wild (and possibly bought a Wii U for that precise purpose originally, Zelda being mega delayed over the years).

We know that of the first batch of Switches (rumored to be like 2 million), the attach rate will probably be like 100% with Zelda. That alone puts like an automatic 4 million.

Lets say the system does so-so in the long run (i think it will do fairly well, but for the sake of argument), like 30 million in the hardware sold department- you have to imagine that Breath of the Wild is going to be one of those must have games for the system, sort of like a Mario Kart regularly, and will be purchased for like 1/4 of every Switch sold in the long run.

I think 10 million is very realistic.

Again, a lot has to do with critical reception. I'm kind of shocked the critics seem to like the game so much, I didn't anticipate it before, with it being such a departure from the past few installments of Zelda. But if most of the critics portray the game as potentially one of the best of all time- that's going to persuade an incrediblie amount of adpopters, and there already were plenty of people swayed before the critical response



Still no numbers yet. Seems to be off to a good start but it needs the legs to hit or get close to 10mil. Lets go BotW!



Ok soooo we got some numeros

US is 1.385mil and japan 475k as of now.

Its way over 2mil by now in Japan/NoA alone at this point sold. Only less than 8mil to go