I think there was a temporary boost in sales for the PSP when they cut the price, at least in the UK.

Kruze S, I love your signature by the way. "Reality has a Nintendo bias." Had me laughing off my chair when I first saw it.

Read my post history and look at the many times I made my predictions on the outcome of the consoles.

360 has been at 9 million for 5 going on 6 months. It's stuck in quicksand momentum wise. Wii's rushing like Niagara Falls. Worldwide it's a foregone conclusion and while most don't agree with me that Wii can beat XBox 360 in the Americas within month of July it is CERTAIN by nearly everyone that they can get 'em by end of year.

Wii will sell 20 million worldwide GUARANTEED. This puts them well over XBox 360 who only has Halo 3 to push sales for the most part. Holiday season. Think holiday season. Think months leading up to holiday season.

Wii won't slow down much at all and it will even be strong within the summer. By fall it's gonna hit its ""super smash power" so to speak (only referencing the game not talking about its release) and scare us all with its amazing numbers on the charts to the likes of how we see DS in Japan. Once fall starts it hits its superpowered stride and it will consume XBox 360 like Pac-Man on power pellets to a ghost. When it finishes eating the green ghost a "360" point graphic will pop up in the eaten ghosts place and then it will go for the cherry—the green cherry the color of dollar bills.

John Lucas 

But it's not just Halo. And I know the 360 seems stuck, but it's been selling consistently the same amount in the US throughout all it's life - it's not slowing down, and it won't slow down any time soon. That's except for the fantastic holiday season. That won't repeat itself, not with the same magnitude, but you will see a boost - we always do, and the 360's holiday lineup is good.

 john, saying the 360 only has Halo is like saying the Wii is only for kids. It's just plain wrong. Yes Halo 3 will be a major console seller this year (Probably the biggest), but there are still plenty more strong 360 releases lined up.  I know you're better than that man.

Prediction: PS3 price drops 100 dollars before holidays...

Prediction: It won't make a difference...

Your casual dismissal of Mass Effect, Forza 2, Bio Shock, Shadowrun, GTA IV (unmentioned) and Blue Dragon is pretty impressive. Those games will sell systems, just as Metroid Prime, SM Galaxy, and SSBB will. 

How about, instead of saying: "My system has great games and your system doesn't and my system will beat you all," we all admit that each system has some powerful and compelling exclusive titles for the Christmas season? I absolutely agre, Rolstoppable, that the Wii is very likely to sell the most systems this Christmas. I'd add that I'm likely to pick one up (and I haven't owned a console in almost 10 years). I'm not arguing with that. But this isn't black and white: it isn't as if Nintendo "wins" and everyone else completely "loses." Wii will probably sell best, and Xbox360 and PS3 will sell some, too, and all three systems will have great games. I know it's not as exciting when phrased that way, but it's also true. 

 Yeah, actually, I think another Zelda would sell more consoles (if there were more consoles to sell, that is).

I think people rarely buy a system for one, specific title. Meaning, quite literally, that they would pay 460 dollars to play Bioshock (400 for the system, 60 for the game. And I chose Bioshock only as an example). Instead, people usually have 3-5 (or more) titles that sound really good to them, and buy the system to play them collectively. Rather than say: "Mass Effect will convince people to buy an Xbox360 on the its strength alone," I would say something  more like: "These people were considering buying an Xbox360, and Mass Effect put them over the edge."

I'd agree that the absolute strongest sellers are probably games that break new ground for the system in question. But games in genres already fleshed out have historically had an important impact, too, and I wouldn't understate it. 

The question then is what did the 360 have the last holiday season to give it it's spike? I mean, was it just plenty of supply, one game, and no competition?

Well, this holiday season it'll sure have plenty of supply (and maybe even a new process and/or a price drop), at least two games (one exclusive, one on a far more expensive rival), and last holiday there already was some competition - launch competition.

I'm not arguing that this Christmas will be as good as the previous one for the 360, but it has no signs of just passing by either. The holiday season always sells, for no other reason beyond it being the holiday season. Anyone expecting the 360 to be a sitting duck in the US is just delusional.

And just looking at a 360 that's not slowing down, and adding a Christmas half as good as last year's, would need the Wii to do amazingly well, almost something like DS well, to pass the 360 this year in the US.

I don't. I just try not to overestimate it. That means not shooting for way more than Nintendo itself is.

And that's precisely the one reason why I don't think it will happen. Theres just no room for that kind of growth. Nintendo's own estimates sure aren't the ceiling, but given the supply constraint they're not that far from being the ceiling.

The problem with that is that the 360 sold a little over 1.7 million consoles in the last holiday season spike alone. Are you sure that with Halo, GTA, the holidays, people who were "wait and see" for the PS3, and a potential price drop, we can't see the same thing happening again this year? Cause if the 360 sells just half of what it sold the last holidays, plus an average of 40-50k a week, it will still beat your estimate.