I don't expect it to sell even 20 mil. Switch have too many negatives to be a smash hit.

The Wii came with a game and was priced lower than the Xbox 360 and the PS3.

The Switch doesn't come with a game and costs more than Xbox One and PS4 (which come with games).

I doubt it will be a runaway success.

Its not price that really matters. Its content as that creates value. Wii Sports created value that kept Wii sold out for two years where it fetched a continous price on eBay over $400, which was a lot more than PS360's prices.

NS is a home console that can be taken anywhere. It has superior local multiplayer support, superior rumble and motion technology, some of the best exclusive IPs in the industry such as Zelda, Mario, Pokemon and the many portable-only titles that are typically exclusive to Nintendo like Monster Hunter.

While it may not be a Wii-like explosion, it very well could be a DS-like ramp up where year 1 was steady and later years were amazing.

To be fair, neither Pokemon nor Monster Hunter have been confirmed as coming to Switch.

Yes games and we all by now accpet that its not gettting those huge AAA 3rd party games.

And its lacks a WiiSports.  So games more or less like the GC or wiiu had.  

So yahh future.  

Agreed.  I've owned every Nintendo home console, and almost all handhelds.  I love Nintendo games.  However, since I already own a Wii U, I see no reason to buy a Switch at launch.  I'll buy Zelda for the Wii U, and hold off on Switch until there are a few more games that I care about.  So, I think holiday 2017 is the earliest possible time for me.  I'll probably buy it if they offer an attractive bundle deal.  Otherwise, I may hold out even longer.  I could see waiting until holiday 2018 even.  

With that said, I do have a preorder in, just in case I change my min

Agreed.  At this point, the Switch has the highest cost of entry.  That's a much different situation than the Wii faced.

It also has a tiny launch lineup.

I see no reason to believe that it will be a hot seller in months 2 through 8.  

1. that has nothing to do with succes, good sales, invalid point

2. people are just as currious on yt as they were when the wiiu was launched, invalid point

3. no, the Switch is not inovative,  a gaming tablet that has side controlers and can conect to an external display/tv trough Hdmi has been done before,   invalid point

4. invalid point, the other consoles on the market are priced cheeper and are more powerfull spec wize, no chance at retail

5. I guess ... but you can buy it on the last gen Nintendo console ..

Many of those Switch games you mentioned are not new.  Plus, the Switch's "killer app", Zelda, is coming out on another system at the same time.  And, that system is one that many of the likely early Switch adopters already own.  

I think the Switch will outsell the N64 in lifetime sales, but it'll be tough to do much more than that unless it hits a mass-market price point ($200) within a year or so on the market. It will obviously sell out at launch and be scarce for about a couple months after (largely due to limited stock early in its life), but after the initial hype dies down I don't think the Switch will have the post-launch legs that the Wii had for several reasons.

#1 no ground breaking system seller like Wii Sports packed in. $300 is alot to ask the mainstream audience to plunk down for a console who's only real must-have launch title is Zelda, which generally appeals more the core Nintendo fanbase than the mainstream.

#2 everything you needed to play and enjoy the Wii came right in the box for $250. People aren't going to shell out another $50 for a glorified tech-demo game like 1-2-Switch like the types of numbers the Wii and Wii Sports did for its first year on the market, and an extra pair of JoyCons is going to set you back $80 on top of that (not counting an additional $30 for the grip/charging base).

#3 the Wii had plenty of software during its first year on the market, both 1st and 3rd party, that was a hit with both Nintendo fans and the mainstream audience, and that continued for several more years into its life. Other than Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey, there aren't many titles on the immediate horizon for the Switch that will be popular with both audiences, and like the Wii U 3rd party software is going to be very scarce throughout the Switch's lifespan.

E3 is going to be a crucial bench mark for the Switch, as by then we'll see if it manages to maintain its launch momentum going into the summer, and if there are any new major titles announced for it besides the usual Nintendo fare.