I think the Switch will outsell the N64 in lifetime sales, but it'll be tough to do much more than that unless it hits a mass-market price point ($200) within a year or so on the market. It will obviously sell out at launch and be scarce for about a couple months after (largely due to limited stock early in its life), but after the initial hype dies down I don't think the Switch will have the post-launch legs that the Wii had for several reasons.
#1 no ground breaking system seller like Wii Sports packed in. $300 is alot to ask the mainstream audience to plunk down for a console who's only real must-have launch title is Zelda, which generally appeals more the core Nintendo fanbase than the mainstream.
#2 everything you needed to play and enjoy the Wii came right in the box for $250. People aren't going to shell out another $50 for a glorified tech-demo game like 1-2-Switch like the types of numbers the Wii and Wii Sports did for its first year on the market, and an extra pair of JoyCons is going to set you back $80 on top of that (not counting an additional $30 for the grip/charging base).
#3 the Wii had plenty of software during its first year on the market, both 1st and 3rd party, that was a hit with both Nintendo fans and the mainstream audience, and that continued for several more years into its life. Other than Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey, there aren't many titles on the immediate horizon for the Switch that will be popular with both audiences, and like the Wii U 3rd party software is going to be very scarce throughout the Switch's lifespan.
E3 is going to be a crucial bench mark for the Switch, as by then we'll see if it manages to maintain its launch momentum going into the summer, and if there are any new major titles announced for it besides the usual Nintendo fare.
On 2/24/13, MB1025 said:
You know I was always wondering why no one ever used the dollar sign for $ony, but then I realized they have no money so it would be pointless.
