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Forums - Sales - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 111.08m by June 30th, Forecast for Current Fiscal Year Remains at 21.0m

Aeolus451 on 03 August 2017
RolStoppable said:
Aeolus451 said:

You brought up sony as a strawman then. I used those statistic when someone else brought up handhelds. You know damn well that nintendo is focusing towards certain demographics over the average gamer. I'll leave my prediction as is. 

Here's a link to read up what a straw man argument is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

By the way, the average gamer likes Nintendo games.

Maybe in your version of reality. 



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Aeolus451 on 03 August 2017
StarDoor said:
Aeolus451 said:

You brought up sony as a strawman then. I used those statistic when someone else brought up handhelds. You know damn well that nintendo is focusing towards certain demographics over the average gamer. I'll leave my prediction as is. 

So you think that the Switch will sell half of what the 3DS did even though the Switch is selling better in every market.

I see so you think it will sell like the 3DS? I'm being very skeptical of it after the wii u. We'll see, though.



StarDoor on 03 August 2017
Aeolus451 said:
StarDoor said:

So you think that the Switch will sell half of what the 3DS did even though the Switch is selling better in every market.

I see so you think it will sell like the 3DS? I'm being very skeptical of it after the wii u. We'll see, though.

There's no logical reason to think that the Switch will do worse than the 3DS, especially as we have months of sales data showing that the Switch is more appealing to consumers at $300 than the 3DS was even at $170.



AngryLittleAlchemist on 03 August 2017
Aeolus451 said:
RolStoppable said:

Here's a link to read up what a straw man argument is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

By the way, the average gamer likes Nintendo games.

Maybe in your version of reality. 

This is why I stopped replying. Some people just can't be reasoned with. I did have a huge wall of text I wrote yesterday, but I figured there just wasn't any point. You just can't reason with some people. 



Aeolus451 on 03 August 2017
StarDoor said:
Aeolus451 said:

I see so you think it will sell like the 3DS? I'm being very skeptical of it after the wii u. We'll see, though.

There's no logical reason to think that the Switch will do worse than the 3DS, especially as we have months of sales data showing that the Switch is more appealing to consumers at $300 than the 3DS was even at $170.

It's only been out for a little while. There's no point in being overly optimistic or overly pessimistic about it.  Besided, we don't know if it will sell like a handheld or home console yet.



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StarDoor on 03 August 2017
Aeolus451 said:
StarDoor said:

There's no logical reason to think that the Switch will do worse than the 3DS, especially as we have months of sales data showing that the Switch is more appealing to consumers at $300 than the 3DS was even at $170.

It's only been out for a little while. There's no point in being overly optimistic or overly pessimistic about it.  Besided, we don't know if it will sell like a handheld or home console yet.

Do you seriously think your prediction of 40 million or less isn't overly pessimistic?

Let's look at the NPD data:

Switch NPD 2017 Monthly Cumulative 3DS NPD 2011 Monthly Cumulative 3DS NPD 2012 Monthly Cumulative 3DS NPD 2013 Monthly Cumulative
Jan     Jan     Jan 160 160 Jan 281 281
Feb     Feb     Feb 262 422 Feb 191 472
Mar 910 910 Mar 398 398 Mar 200* 622 Mar 230 702
Apr 281 1191 Apr 194 592 Apr 125 747 Apr 115 817
May 165 1356 May 97 689 May 114 861 May 114 931
Jun 216 1572 Jun 143 832 Jun 155 1016 Jun 225 1156
Jul

Jul 90 922 Jul 119* 1135 Jul 150 1306
Aug

Aug 235 1157 Aug 176 1311 Aug 143* 1449
Sep

Sep 260 1417 Sep 273* 1584 Sep 193* 1642
Oct

Oct 250 1667 Oct 232* 1816 Oct 452 2094
Nov

Nov 795 2462 Nov 540 2356 Nov 770 2864
Dec

Dec 1650 4112 Dec 1250 3606 Dec 1100 3964

*VGChartz data was substituted because we didn't get 3DS data from NPD.

In the United States, the Switch is selling much faster than the 3DS ever did. The 3DS will reach 20 million in the US, possibly more.

Now let's look at the Media Create data:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=226216&page=1

In Japan, the Switch is selling on par with the 3DS. The 3DS will reach 24 million in Japan, possibly more.

So Switch can easily hit 40 million in just two countries alone. But you think that 40 million worldwide is reasonable? That's laughable.



Aeolus451 on 03 August 2017
SpokenTruth said:
Aeolus451 said:

It's only been out for a little while. There's no point in being overly optimistic or overly pessimistic about it.  Besided, we don't know if it will sell like a handheld or home console yet.

What is overly opimistic and overly pessimistic to you?

Under 40 is pessimistic and over 80 is just being overly optimistic to me. It's very subjective so I don't care if I'm necessarily "right". It's just my opinion.  



Aeolus451 on 03 August 2017
StarDoor said:
Aeolus451 said:

It's only been out for a little while. There's no point in being overly optimistic or overly pessimistic about it.  Besided, we don't know if it will sell like a handheld or home console yet.

Do you seriously think your prediction of 40 million or less isn't overly pessimistic?

Let's look at the NPD data:

Switch NPD 2017 Monthly Cumulative 3DS NPD 2011 Monthly Cumulative 3DS NPD 2012 Monthly Cumulative 3DS NPD 2013 Monthly Cumulative
Jan     Jan     Jan 160 160 Jan 281 281
Feb     Feb     Feb 262 422 Feb 191 472
Mar 910 910 Mar 398 398 Mar 200* 622 Mar 230 702
Apr 281 1191 Apr 194 592 Apr 125 747 Apr 115 817
May 165 1356 May 97 689 May 114 861 May 114 931
Jun 216 1572 Jun 143 832 Jun 155 1016 Jun 225 1156
Jul

Jul 90 922 Jul 119* 1135 Jul 150 1306
Aug

Aug 235 1157 Aug 176 1311 Aug 143* 1449
Sep

Sep 260 1417 Sep 273* 1584 Sep 193* 1642
Oct

Oct 250 1667 Oct 232* 1816 Oct 452 2094
Nov

Nov 795 2462 Nov 540 2356 Nov 770 2864
Dec

Dec 1650 4112 Dec 1250 3606 Dec 1100 3964

*VGChartz data was substituted because we didn't get 3DS data from NPD.

In the United States, the Switch is selling much faster than the 3DS ever did. The 3DS will reach 20 million in the US, possibly more.

Now let's look at the Media Create data:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=226216&page=1

In Japan, the Switch is selling on par with the 3DS. The 3DS will reach 24 million in Japan, possibly more.

So Switch can easily hit 40 million in just two countries alone. But you think that 40 million worldwide is reasonable? That's laughable.

Sure, it's pessimistic. I'm a pessimistic person in general. I like to think that the bad or not so great will happen in most in any given situation. I like to be wrong because it means the good outcome happened versus the bad or not so good. If i'm right then it played out like I expected.

For example, after the PS3, I expected sony to fuck up again by launching a overpriced console with features we don't want and maybe getting 60 to 80 mil in sales. I was hoping that wouldn't happened but I expected it but I'm gladly wrong about it. I could easily be wrong about the switch but we'll see. 



fatslob-:O on 06 August 2017
RolStoppable said:

First off, when you talk about the competitive advantage of exclusives, it's not only the number of titles you need to take into account, but also the impact they are going to have. In terms of first party software (which is exclusive by default) Switch has an advantage over 3DS because it's not going to miss out on high profile games that go to a different Nintendo console. Third parties need to be given some time, because the 3DS didn't get its waves of Japanese games in its first year either, which is why an extended drought forced a quick price cut of the 3DS. Considering how Switch is selling in Japan, it should convince third parties quickly to put games on the system.

It's looking likely that Switch will end up with a (much) bigger library than the 3DS. At the Switch presentation in January Nintendo said that over 80 games are in development. Now only half a year later you look at a list where this number has quadrupled. That's why I am not worried about Switch software support at all, because it has been ramping up at a rapid pace in the last few months. I don't think that I am overrating portability, because Minecraft is bound to have a bigger impact than the majority of exclusive third party games. The 3DS did not get Minecraft. Nowadays it's more probable that new hit IPs that can help Nintendo hardware sales come from indie developers rather than AAA third parties, so the Switch's development environment is set up to reap the benefits from this. The 3DS missed out on many indie games, Switch won't.

Hmm, I would say the Switch's advantage in having undivided support in comparison to the 3DS is negligible when we consider the fact that the 3DS already got the majority of software support from Nintendo. 3DS offered a similar set of titles, the only big unique games it lacked in comparison to the WII U was Splatoon, Nintendo Land (bundles) and arguably Pikmin. You can wish third parties and especially japanese third parties transitioning to the Switch as fast as possible but it's not going to make it any faster since game development cycles have only gotten longer so the Switch might well have to wait as long as 8-10 months or even upto a year before we see developers releasing games en masse for the Switch ... (longer dev cycles perfectly ties into my point why the lifespan of home consoles are extending) 

That's supposing that all of these titles will release and the Switch will recieve constant high volume of software support. (3DS already has just over 1200 games down right now while around half the number of announced Switch games are still in development until next year) I still maintain that AAA games are the main system sellers in comparison to indies and this will likely apply to the Switch too ... 

RolStoppable said:

Now for the perceived disadvantages:

1. Price - You are verifiably wrong. Switch has been selling well at $300 which means that the market sees high value in the product. The 3DS couldn't maintain its $250 price tag. Logically, Switch won't need to reach the lowest price regions of the 3DS in its lifetime because the market considers it a better product with more functionality.

2. Lower chance of big emerging third party exclusives - Considering that the 3DS had almost nothing in this category, this is an overexaggeration on your part. You mentioned Yokai Watch and Bravely Default (Monster Hunter doesn't count because it was already big before the 3DS), but the developers of these games are bound to continue their work on Switch, the Bravely Default makers' new game is a confirmed exclusive at the moment. Then there's the problem that the BD games never made any significant impact on hardware sales, so you are greatly overrating the importance of this point.

3. Less chances for revisions - That may be true, but at the same time Switch hardware is better designed than the original 3DS hardware. There is less of a need for revisions for Switch and the sales data backs that up.

4. Less new higher production value games in general - Did you forget that we are talking about Switch in comparison to 3DS? Point instantly dismissed, because it's nonsensical.

5. Lack of backwards compatibility - It's not hindering sales, so point dismissed.

Much of this discussion has been going in circles, so this was probably my last response. Looking at the big picture, I will win either way. Either I manage to convince you and have a convert, or you remain stubborn while being stuck in this thread that gets bumped every quarter to monitor the Switch's road of success. In time I will be able to say "Told you that the Switch will do better than the 3DS, but you wouldn't listen." because your contributions to this thread won't be forgotten.

Well sure the Switch is selling well at $299 right now but will it be able to maintain a price of $249 and above for the rest of it's life without adversely affecting hardware sales ? (That's why I'm not discounting the 3DS's price advantage and lower cost of production so soon.) 

Do you have a source to claim that Silicon Studio's new game is exclusive for the Switch ? (I haven't found anything regarding this subject on my end.) It's also far from certain that smaller players like Level-5 and Silicon Studio will be able to continue putting out higher production value games since it's getting harder for the smaller players to enter ...

Better designed in what metric ? We also haven't seen how the Switch will sell with an appreciable amount of extended time either when this comes into affect so the need for less hardware revisions to drive hardware sales is just an assertion on your part so far ... 

I did take into consideration that we are talking about the Switch in comparison to the 3DS but did you take into consideration that AAA games are taking longer to make on more powerful hardware such as the Switch ? (There's a reason why the Switch is getting more cross-platform releases early on than new AAA games in general.)

Do I have to pick sides in this argument ? Why can't I be on the fence ? 

Also is the Switch pulling off 3DS numbers supposed to be victory when that's a decline coming off from 3DS + WII U ? (There's also benefits to be had in having two seperate dedicated platforms like we see with WII/DS but I guess Nintendo forgone that option as the costs of maintaining two platforms outweighed the benefits for them yet there's still so much potential in it.) 



Rocketjay8 on 14 August 2017

I love this thread.