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Aeolus451 on 03 August 2017
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StarDoor said:
Aeolus451 said:

It's only been out for a little while. There's no point in being overly optimistic or overly pessimistic about it.  Besided, we don't know if it will sell like a handheld or home console yet.

Do you seriously think your prediction of 40 million or less isn't overly pessimistic?

Let's look at the NPD data:

Switch NPD 2017 Monthly Cumulative 3DS NPD 2011 Monthly Cumulative 3DS NPD 2012 Monthly Cumulative 3DS NPD 2013 Monthly Cumulative
Jan     Jan     Jan 160 160 Jan 281 281
Feb     Feb     Feb 262 422 Feb 191 472
Mar 910 910 Mar 398 398 Mar 200* 622 Mar 230 702
Apr 281 1191 Apr 194 592 Apr 125 747 Apr 115 817
May 165 1356 May 97 689 May 114 861 May 114 931
Jun 216 1572 Jun 143 832 Jun 155 1016 Jun 225 1156
Jul

Jul 90 922 Jul 119* 1135 Jul 150 1306
Aug

Aug 235 1157 Aug 176 1311 Aug 143* 1449
Sep

Sep 260 1417 Sep 273* 1584 Sep 193* 1642
Oct

Oct 250 1667 Oct 232* 1816 Oct 452 2094
Nov

Nov 795 2462 Nov 540 2356 Nov 770 2864
Dec

Dec 1650 4112 Dec 1250 3606 Dec 1100 3964

*VGChartz data was substituted because we didn't get 3DS data from NPD.

In the United States, the Switch is selling much faster than the 3DS ever did. The 3DS will reach 20 million in the US, possibly more.

Now let's look at the Media Create data:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=226216&page=1

In Japan, the Switch is selling on par with the 3DS. The 3DS will reach 24 million in Japan, possibly more.

So Switch can easily hit 40 million in just two countries alone. But you think that 40 million worldwide is reasonable? That's laughable.

Sure, it's pessimistic. I'm a pessimistic person in general. I like to think that the bad or not so great will happen in most in any given situation. I like to be wrong because it means the good outcome happened versus the bad or not so good. If i'm right then it played out like I expected.

For example, after the PS3, I expected sony to fuck up again by launching a overpriced console with features we don't want and maybe getting 60 to 80 mil in sales. I was hoping that wouldn't happened but I expected it but I'm gladly wrong about it. I could easily be wrong about the switch but we'll see.