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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 111.08m by June 30th, Forecast for Current Fiscal Year Remains at 21.0m

Aeolus451 said:
newwil7l said:

You have to be joking. Mario is a far more recognizable brand worldwide than Pokemon (although Pokemon is much more lucrative) and it has been restricted to gaming since the mid 90s when Nintendo got more conservative with their IPs. It is definitely changing now with the future theme parks and rumored Nickelodeon show.

 

The anime isn't that popular anymore and you are really overestimating the exposure a cartoon will have especially when kids are less and less reluctant to watch TV these days. And are you seriously insane? How can you think Zelda is next in line? Nintendo has enough with Mario and Pokemon to get enough kids to buy into the Switch with their brand alone through gaming. They don't need outside exposure.

Mario could be argued that it as well known as pokemon but do people really care about it outside of gaming? No. A lot of people know of the beatles but do they listen to it or buy anything related to them? A few do but the mass majority of people don't care. Mario is like the beatles in that sense outside of gaming.  Pokemon is in a league of it's own in terms of brand awareness, the range of products that are attached to it and it's reach. Just look at how popular pokemon go is. 

That is wrong on so many levels that my head cant quite grasp it.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

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RolStoppable said:

UPDATE: July 31st, 2017

 

On July 8th Michael Pachter can see Switch selling 50m lifetime, but can't see 100m units because that would be 20m per year.

http://gametransfers.com/micheal-patcher-nintendo-switch-wont-be-as-successful-as-wii/

...

This concludes this quarter's update. The outlook for Switch has already become considerably more positive since half a year ago and at the time of this writing the vast majority of predictions and expectations have risen above 40m units lifetime.

I like how easy it is to condense Pachter's nonsense logic into one sentence of stupidity. What analyst thinks a console must sell/does sell in a straight, even amount without peaks? Oh, wait.

In other news, I think this is one of my new favorite threads.



RolStoppable said:

XL models of the DS and 3DS sold well and they were more expensive than the regular size models. There's no good reason to doubt that more convenient revisions extend the life of portable video game hardware.

Since Switch is Nintendo's only platform going forward, there's no good reason to be concerned about the amount of first party games. That leaves third party, but there is hardly any week without new game announcements for Switch. You are mistaken about the chances for new hit IPs from third parties to emerge, because pretty much every popular development engine supports Switch. And remember, every Switch game comes with the benefit of being portable by default, so it isn't detrimental for Switch if such third party IPs are multiplatform. Minecraft is going to be big on Switch despite its age, Rocket League too.

Your third paragraph seems to be derived from Nintendo's statistical data for Switch's launch quarter. You should not be surprised that males are much more likely to buy new technology and you should also not be surprised that adults are more likely to have the money for new video game hardware. The demographical breakdown for Switch ownership is guaranteed to change over time, because the hardware price will come down eventually, there are going to be gift-giving seasons and the software lineup will become more varied.

So many of the concerns you raise are pretty much a given to be properly addressed by Nintendo. It's like wondering if Nintendo will increase Switch supply to ease up the current shortages... it's something that they obviously work on, so it isn't a guessing game or something that warrants uncertainty. Maybe the approach needs to be changed. In which aspects do you see the Switch at a disadvantage in comparison to the 3DS?

The lack of engine support didn't stop third party games from releasing on the 3DS, the biggest change with the Switch is supporting Unreal Engine 4. (The 3DS already supported Unity.) I don't think I'm mistaken about lower chances of new hit third party IPs. (There's arguably less new games being made today on home consoles or portables then compared to back then. There's 1800+ games to be had on the DS compared to just over 1200 games on the 3DS and so far of the 320 or so announced games on the Switch around 40 are exclusive (3DS has just under 200) which translates to a lower ratio of exclusive games compared to the 3DS. The competitive advantage of exclusives cannot be denied when all of those 3rd party exclusives I listed for the 3DS benefited from are either full exclusives or signficantly timed exclusives.) In short, yes there's a benefit to the portability factor but you overrate it in comparison to having exclusive games when we look at the 3DS as an example ... 

I do realize that it's too early to measure the demographics of the Switch but it still remains to be seen whether Nintendo has improved upon that issue or not ... 

If you wanted to know from me what aspects the Switch has a disadvantage compared to the 3DS you should've asked me earlier but here's a list ... 

Price

Lower chance of big emerging third party exclusives 

Less chances for revisions (3DS had the XL line, 2DS line, new 3DS line and all sorts of other mixes where as I only expect two more SKUs with the Switch) 

Less new higher value production games in general (hole could be filled by just porting old AAA games from the last generation) 

Lesser important matters such as the lack of backwards compatibility (porting a few popular WII U games doesn't seem so bad but porting the a small portion of the 3DS library is a mammoth of a task unless they use sequels as a solution instead) 



I think M Pachter made one very good comment in one of his video interviews, which was that Switch is a handheld gaming device, not a console. The success of Switch is great news because it means that mobile phones have not entirely conquered the handheld space. I think Sony concluded with Vita that handheld market is gone, but perhaps the problem was more on the lacking of big titles to push the sales. At least Nintendo is really taking the first party commitment seriously. I think Nintendo could partially solve their pricing issue by selling a version of switch which comes only with the handheld part.



AngryLittleAlchemist said:
Aeolus451 said:

"That's part of it but hardly the only thing. Anyone who's objective about it can see and admit that Nintendo designs/markets their games towards that demographic in general. From the commercials, character designs, theme of the games, game covers, etc it's fairly evident that it is the case. That doesn't mean that the the older nintendo fans are immature or anything like that just because they play nintendo games. I know that part of the reason why a lot of nintendo fans are so defensive about this particular thing is that they think it's being implied or said that they are immature for playing those games."

(1) You make a good point here but I think it's rendered a little invalid for a few reasons. One - the Switch's marketing is still almost exclusively with adults and teenagers. If we were to make a false equivalency where a console's superficial marketing determines what the age bracket is, then the use of teenagers and adults over kids would take precidence over a "kiddy" art style because that's up to the game's developers, and is seperate from the console itself. There's two big reasons why Nintendo sticks with a cartoony art style even for something like Zelda - the uniqueness of it; most adult Nintendo fans have grown up with Nintendo and love their unique art styles, and along with that the fact that it reserves power. Nintendo would be in the shitter if they focused on realistic  graphics with the Switch, so while yes their cartoony sensibilities seem "kiddy" there's a lot of reasons to consider why they choose that style, and I don't think it's just to appeal to kids, although that has a small part in it.

"Anyway, I think their strategy is and has always been to get a kid to want it and he/she tells their about parents about it."

(2) https://youtu.be/tkI6c6MvBko  Literally a video addressing this  : D 

" I think they're flawed for the most part because of the people who are doing the surveys/data collecting aren't gamers so they're just lumping things together. Mobile and social shouldn't be included into the totals at all. I wouldn't call mobile/social players, gamers per se because most of them are completely ignorant of gaming culture and the other gaming markets. " 

(3) Previous response :  "Now obviously it's hard to know what are considered "games" but a lot of these studies specifically focus on computers and consoles titles , which is much better than including mobile titles."

Why are you pretending like you haven't read what i wrote? Anyways, it's hard to know because the study isn't very specific, but some of the stuff actually points to one thing and then another. For instance they say that only 29% of gamers are under 18, but then say tha 74% of k-8 teachers use learning games. To me, this means that the study is doing it's job and seperating mobile/learning games from real games, since the statistic would *HAVE* to be higher. 

Another study says that 65% of users own a video game playing device, while 48% own a dedicated game console. Of course this looks like a terrible pool until you realize PC might not be included in that bracket of dedicated consoles. To add to that, 47% of gamers in the study including mobile, pc and console games are between the ages of 18 and 49, which correlates nicely to the amount of people who own a dedicated console. And the average frequent purchaser of video games is 38. Again, this is not the be all end all of arguments, but I don't think that kids, or young teens take up as much of the market as you'd think. If studies didn't rule in mobile, the conclusion would still probably be that young adults to middle aged people are buying the majority of hardcore PC and console real estate, since most people who clog up the mobile database and don't play actual games are incredibly old people or incredibly young people. But again, I really think the rabid fanbase of adults regarding the Switch is more improtant than this argument. I've just simply seen more adults talk about the system tehn kids.

"I meant "It is the only IP, nintendo has that has reach outside of the gaming market" to be with "Pokemon is in a league of it's own with brand recognition and more importantly, people wanting to buy products in relation to it in comparison to the rest of nintendo's staple of games.".  i didn't mean that people don't know of nintendo's characters."

Right...which is what i'm addressing...

" People know of nintendo's staple of characters but that doesn't mean that want to buy anything related to them. They don't have the kind of consumer appeal/reach outside of gaming that pokemon does on a wordwide level with products related to it. it's why I used the show as an example. " 

(4) Here's where things get tricky. In order for you to be correct, you'd have to do mental gymnastics. If you mean to say that Pokemon is the only Nintendo series that has appeal in movies, animation, and playing cards outside of gaming ... then you are technically correct? But I assume we're talking about the abilitiy to take people outside of gaming and make them buy a game ... which is what I've been addressing this whole time. The first point of view has no place in a discussion about whether or not a series of games are niche, because a Mario game can still pull in people who aren't gamers, whether or not it has an anime.  We're talking about games and realistically speaking Mario, Smash Brothers and Mario Kart have just about as much of a chance to get people into games as Pokemon does. 

"We've been over niche before, haven't we? I'm sure it was you I had this talk with on it."

(5) Previously : " I know we already had this conversation before, but your points make even less sense now. You say it appeals to a niche part of the market - "gamers" - but Nintendo games have a much wider demographic than any other and beyond that "gamers" take up a majority of the console market. And then you say it wont sell to the general gamer. What? " 

"He says stuff like this consistently."

Have you just not read anything I posted ? 

"I used it in the way i did before in a different thread but yet again, you're conflating it as "the games being niche". I didn't call nintendo games or it's staple of characters niche. I was referring to the part of the market that nintendo focuses on being niche."

(6) Now this literally makes no sense. This ENTIRE discussion we've talked about how you believe that kids are the majority - "Nintendo focuses on children and young teenagers while the rest of the big 3/ third party game devs focus on teenagers and adults. So you could word it as "nintendo games have a much wider demographic than any other and beyond that gamers take up on a majority of the gaming market" and you wouldn't be wrong.  " 

And I stated "kids and young teens are actually a minority"(which to be fair is debatable, but even if it is wrong that doesn't really change my point since I believe Nintendo games cover almost all demographics), which made you defend the point that kids and young teens are a majority, and that Nintendo mainly focuses on that. And now you're saying that the section of the market Nintendo focuses on is niche? Do you have no consistentcy? This literally makes no sense. You've been saying this entire time that young teens and kids take up a majority of the market - hence why I could make the statement "nintendo games have a much wider demographic than any other" and you yourself said that would be in the right. That's not "niche" that is literally adressing a majority of the market.

Either way, a big problem I have with your arguments is that you focus too much on art design to make a coherent point about how Nintendo games are mainly made for kids. Yes, some Nintendo games are clearly easy games and a majority of their games are cartoony - but I think the latter has more to do with consistency and wanting to utilize hardware to the greatest potential. Nintendo games are quite often made with a wide demographic - from Kindgeraten to adults - in mind. It's why you have games like Breath of the Wild which is hard as balls, or Splatoon 2 which emphasises team work and down plays instant gratification, you'd also have to have much better motor skills and hand-eye coordination to play Splatoon than that of most kids. But look, even if Nintendo literally put a print on their games saying "THIS IS ONLY A KIDS GAMES! NO ADULTS ALLOWED!" that wouldn't change that kids, - and especially adults and older teenagers, are interested in the Switch. It's possible for a company to misunderstand their market share, hell it's what happened with the entirity of the Wii U era and its' why Nintendo rectified the marketing with the switch. All of this is to say that even if Nintendo only wanted kids to play their games, your point makes no sense anyways, because  there isn't a coorelation with your ideas - everyone from kids to young teens to old teens to young adults to adults play Nintendo games, and the marketshare in that respect has been becoming more even for a long time now, possibly even skewing to adults. Your point is detached from reality, no matter how much you think Nintendo's big game plan is to market just to kids, and no matter how accurate that idea is - because by law of the marketshare, there games wouldd still have a bigger demographic and wouldn't be niche. 

1. I disagree about what demographics nintendo focuses on (yes, i watched that youtube vid btw). I think they are including more teens or adults in their marketing but in general, nintendo focuses on what they've always had. I'm not arguing for nintendo to change their art style in their games at all but I was pointing out what nintendo is doing or has done since the NES. I rather just call an apple an apple and not dance around it because some people might see it as a burn and turn the conversation's focus on defending that. 

2. Ok, the vid. I watched the majority of it. He was mainly talking about the differences between the bad wii u commercials with horrible acting and kids being really annoying to the switch commercials with less annoying kids that are better thought-out. He did say there's still plenty of kids in commercials but they are just less annoying. i still think that nintendo is following that strategy. We can just agree to disagree on the strat. 

3. I wasn't addressing what you said about studies. I was just giving my two cents on studies/surveys on gaming trends in general. I wasn't trying to turn that into a topic with us. If you want, have at it. 

4. Yes, I was talking about it in this "If you mean to say that Pokemon is the only Nintendo series that has appeal in movies, animation, and playing cards outside of gaming" sense. It has more reach than mario outside of gaming. That's what I meant with "outside of gaming". It does help sell games and move consoles though with it's brand recognition. How many handhelds do you think pokemon help sell? Also, that pokemon go craze was pretty wild, right? . If I remember correctly, alot of ya were estatic about it because it was nintendo's baby doing well. I didn't say that mario couldn't pull in people into gaming. I'll agree with those three probably pulling in as much pokemon does.  

5. i don't know if I'm understanding you right but here's my response to what I think you're saying there. Nintendo is specializing toward or focusing on a certain niche part of the gaming market which is generally outside of the average gamers. Nintendo also makes a few games for the average gamer but not enough to pull the average gamr in numbers to nintendo consoles. With both specializing and making some offerings for older teens/adults, one could say that nintendo is going after a broader range of consumers but in actuality, it's not bringing them in. Most 3rd party devs and sony/ms focus on the average gamer and don't really pay attention to the portion of the market that nintendo focuses on.

6. 5 is also for this. i never said or implied that young teens and kids are the majority of the market. I've been saying the opposite of that. No wonder why you're so confused. Also stop putting niche and games in the same sentence when you know i don't mean niche in that way. 



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Aeolus451 said:
Wyrdness said:

They have with Portables and what logic dictates that a platform has to sell over 70m to not be niche.

That's good for handhelds but it only makes up only 17% of the total market (around there) according to statistics on gaming as a whole so it doesn't counter what I said earlier. More importantly, what about the other market they are in? I didn't say anything about niche in that context.

Mate what you posted here makes no sense in any context what's so ever, firstly what stats are you even on about and secondly if their IPs outside of Pokemon are selling 5-10m and the portables are selling 70m consistently then they're not niche. Are you seriously trying to argue that the aren't a lot of portable gamers now?



Thread is hilarious.



Wyrdness said:
Aeolus451 said:

That's good for handhelds but it only makes up only 17% of the total market (around there) according to statistics on gaming as a whole so it doesn't counter what I said earlier. More importantly, what about the other market they are in? I didn't say anything about niche in that context.

Mate what you posted here makes no sense in any context what's so ever, firstly what stats are you even on about and secondly if their IPs outside of Pokemon are selling 5-10m and the portables are selling 70m consistently then they're not niche. Are you seriously trying to argue that the aren't a lot of portable gamers now?

You really try to comprehend what someone is writing before you reply. Read more slowly this time.

I did not say that nintendo's IPs were niche. Ever. Got it? Good. So stop trying to get me to defend a position I never held. Stop getting triggered off of the mentioning of "niche". i used the word to the describe the portion of the gaming market that nintendo focuses on and not the IPs. Also, saying pokemon has more reach than nintendo's staple of IPs outside of gaming does not mean that nintendo's IPs are niche. it's saying that pokemon is more popular than nintendo's other popular IP's. 

There are not alot of gamers playing handheld (as in dedicated handheld gaming consoles) consoles in the gaming market as a whole compared to the other options. 

"Devices the most frequent gamers are playing on:

PC: 56%, dedicated game console: 53%, smartphone: 36%, wireless device: 31%, dedicated handheld system: 17%"

http://www.bigfishgames.com/blog/2017-video-game-trends-and-statistics-whos-playing-what-and-why/



Aeolus451 said:
Wyrdness said:

Mate what you posted here makes no sense in any context what's so ever, firstly what stats are you even on about and secondly if their IPs outside of Pokemon are selling 5-10m and the portables are selling 70m consistently then they're not niche. Are you seriously trying to argue that the aren't a lot of portable gamers now?

You really try to comprehend what someone is writing before you reply. Read more slowly this time.

I did not say that nintendo's IPs were niche. Ever. Got it? Good. So stop trying to get me to defend a position I never held. Stop getting triggered off of the mentioning of "niche". i used the word to the describe the portion of the gaming market that nintendo focuses on and not the IPs. Also, saying pokemon has more reach than nintendo's staple of IPs outside of gaming does not mean that nintendo's IPs are niche. it's saying that pokemon is more popular than nintendo's other popular IP's. 

There are not alot of gamers playing handheld (as in dedicated handheld gaming consoles) consoles in the gaming market as a whole compared to the other options. 

"Devices the most frequent gamers are playing on:

PC: 56%, dedicated game console: 53%, smartphone: 36%, wireless device: 31%, dedicated handheld system: 17%"

http://www.bigfishgames.com/blog/2017-video-game-trends-and-statistics-whos-playing-what-and-why/

Look at what your post said mate the's only one context anyone can get from that post no matter how it is read if you can't write your own views properly it's your own fault no one else's. What do you think saying IPs outside of pokemon are niche is going to come across as? What further calls you into question is your first reply to me as what you said in that post and what you're pushing now is in stark contrast as it seems you realized how the post came across and attempt to damage control the view, the first reply asking the 70m question further adds to the original context people thought you were saying.

Yes Pokemon has more reach than other IPs but that still doesn't mean that is the correct use of niche, Mario is recognized by more people on the planet than Mickey Mouse for reference.

Here's the flaw in those stats you're using firstly the's no indication of the sample size they got these numbers from, secondly the % don't make sense as they're not even out of 100 so how are they calculating these stats exactly as after PC and Consoles they've already gone past 100%, they even fall short of 200%. This indicates to me that these stats are portraying what you think they are, most frequent players means what exactly? If they're talking about the so called core group then that even spins the stats further away from your point.



NintendoPie said:
RolStoppable said:

UPDATE: July 31st, 2017

 

On July 8th Michael Pachter can see Switch selling 50m lifetime, but can't see 100m units because that would be 20m per year.

http://gametransfers.com/micheal-patcher-nintendo-switch-wont-be-as-successful-as-wii/

...

This concludes this quarter's update. The outlook for Switch has already become considerably more positive since half a year ago and at the time of this writing the vast majority of predictions and expectations have risen above 40m units lifetime.

I like how easy it is to condense Pachter's nonsense logic into one sentence of stupidity. What analyst thinks a console must sell/does sell in a straight, even amount without peaks? Oh, wait.

In other news, I think this is one of my new favorite threads.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=230280&page=1

Thread that shows users that agree with him.

No surprises.



 

 

We reap what we sow