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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 103.54m by December 31st, Forecast for Current Fiscal Year Revised Down to 23.0m (Semiconductor Shortages)

@Jumpin

I actually feel like 2021 is more like 2009. I could see holiday sales in 2021 edging out 2020. Essentially:

2020=2008 (peak year, coincidentally we got new Animal Crossing games and the global economy tanked. both were considered quiet years from Nintendo after Q1.)

2021=2009 (first year where sales declined YOY)

2022=2010 (pretty big year as far as releases are concerned)

2023=2011 (last major releases with SS on Wii and likely MP4 and Gen 9 on Switch)

2024=2012 (successor launch during the holidays)



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UPDATE: February 3rd, 2022

Switch family - 103.54m (+10.68m this quarter)
-Switch - 81.68m (+5.34m)
-Switch Lite - 17.87m (+1.35m)
-Switch OLED - 3.99m (NEW)

The most recent quarter fulfilled the expectations from the previous writeup. Switch has passed the 100 million mark and is now fifth on the list of the best-selling consoles of all time. It's on pace to move into third place by the end of calendar year 2022 with an additional chance of becoming the first Nintendo console to crack the 1 billion mark in software shipments.

The only negative news is that the semiconductor shortages persist and as a result Nintendo made another downward revision to their hardware forecast, now at 23m. On the other hand, software got adjusted up again, now expected to hit 220m.

Switch's biggest area left for growth (Europe) has responded well to the price adjustments from last fall, so declines in other markets, namely Japan, can be offset in the foreseeable future. Switch will turn five years old in a month and there's no successor in sight. The software pipeline going into year 6 is looking better than for any Nintendo system before it, so the pieces remain in place to make a run for the title of best-selling console of all time.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:

UPDATE: February 3rd, 2022

Switch family - 103.54m (+10.68m this quarter)
-Switch - 81.68m (+5.34m)
-Switch Lite - 17.87m (+1.35m)
-Switch OLED - 3.99m (NEW)

The most recent quarter fulfilled the expectations from the previous writeup. Switch has passed the 100 million mark and is now fifth on the list of the best-selling consoles of all time. It's on pace to move into third place by the end of calendar year 2022 with an additional chance of becoming the first Nintendo console to crack the 1 billion mark in software shipments.

The only negative news is that the semiconductor shortages persist and as a result Nintendo made another downward revision to their hardware forecast, now at 23m. On the other hand, software got adjusted up again, now expected to hit 220m.

Switch's biggest area left for growth (Europe) has responded well to the price adjustments from last fall, so declines in other markets, namely Japan, can be offset in the foreseeable future. Switch will turn five years old in a month and there's no successor in sight. The software pipeline going into year 6 is looking better than for any Nintendo system before it, so the pieces remain in place to make a run for the title of best-selling console of all time.

That said, it's still impressive that their downward revision was due to shortages and not demand. Looking at the stores around me, most of them are sold out of all Switch models aside from one color variant of the Switch Lite. Demand is still very high for the console, so it is possible we could actually see an almost flat year IF they fix the shortages. 

I don't think they'll have a flat year. I think they'll be down 10-15% personally. But I acknowledge it's possible. 



The fifth year is off to solid start.