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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Wanna predict how much the Switch will sell?

 

How much do you think Switch will sell lifetime?

<10M 39 4.03%
 
10M-20M 125 12.93%
 
20M-30M 137 14.17%
 
30M-40M 143 14.79%
 
40M-50M 121 12.51%
 
50M-60M 120 12.41%
 
60M-70M 70 7.24%
 
70M-80M 60 6.20%
 
80M-100M 60 6.20%
 
> 100M 92 9.51%
 
Total:967
Slownenberg said:
Hilarious to see the early predictions. I'm surprised people didn't expect it to at least do 3DS numbers. I guess just people were so focused on the failure of the Wii U they sorta forgot its a portable and just focused on the console side of things. Like, if you assumed handheld gaming will continue to shrink against smart phones, but then you add in Wii U sales since it is also the successor to the Wii U, guessing 60-70 or 70-80 million seems like it would have been the most reasonable. But seems like a good number of people were predicting a system that was a direct successor to the Wii U rather than a system that combined Nintendo's portable and console markets. And of course they knocked it out of the park so it's gonna put the combined Wii U + 3DS sales to shame.

To be fair, people were more optimistic after E3 that year:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=229499



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wombat123 said:

To be fair, people were more optimistic after E3 that year:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=229499

Switch was already selling well at that point though so the was a reason some were already back tracking I think by E3 it had hit something like 6m.



Pretty happy with my prediction of 85m (the doomsaying was insane, no way this thing was doing anything under 50m with a reveal that hype), but I'd revise that up now given it's current trajectory. Easily going to end up over the Wii and PS1 when all is said and done unless Nintendo cuts its legs prematurely.



Flilix said:

Posting a picture of the poll from March here, since people are still voting which changes the results.

 

Flilix took this picture November 15, 2018.  This gives an indication of the results at that time at least. 


EDIT: I just found an earlier post by Mnementh on January 26, 2017.  This gives the best indication how people were voting before release.

Mnementh said:

To give an update about the standings of the poll.

 lower than 10M 35 5.09%  
10M-20M 116 16.89%
20M-30M 120 17.47%
30M-40M 120 17.47%
40M-50M 93 13.54%
50M-60M 83 12.08%
60M-70M 45 6.55%
70M-80M 30 4.37%
80M-100M 15 2.18%
 bigger than 100M 30 4.37%  
Total: 687

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 13 January 2020

The_Liquid_Laser said:
Flilix said:

Posting a picture of the poll from March here, since people are still voting which changes the results.

Flilix took this picture November 15, 2018.  This gives an indication of the results at that time at least. 

I actually have no idea when I took that picture. I'm claiming that it's from March (2018), and I suppose I'm not making that up, but I don't know where or why I would have saved it for half a year.



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Oh wow, this poll didn't age well. 100m+ is looking likely for Switch, and yet only 9.15% voted for over 100m.



It says I never voted on this.

Before launch I’d have voted 40M, so 40-50 probably, though if I had been pessimistic the day I voted I’d probably have voted 30-40 instead. My reasoning was that the concept of the Switch would catch on in Japan, so it’d sell 3DS numbers there, but would fail in the west. I think I upped my prediction to 64M shortly after launch but obviously that turns out to be much too low as well.

Last edited by S.Peelman - on 13 January 2020

I need to eat crow..... I assumed it would be in the 60-70m range.
It looks like its going well over that hahhahaha.


Jan 2017, it was hard to guess, where the Switch would end up.



Two things I can't get my head around is people who seriously thought Switch would sell significantly less than 3DS and the idea that the cazualz all left Nintendo to play Wii Sports on their iPhone.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

It looks like i was 1 of a select group ,only 30 of us who voted for the higher figure and it looks like we may stand a chance of being correct in a few years time! At worst, i'm pretty confident I won't be 1 of those eating crow on this thread!



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