Well I know around 8 people interested in the Scorpio, with 4 (incl me) who will buy one.
I know 3 people interested in the switch buy waiting until at least mario.

I guess if there is a price drop combined with a good E3 and Mario turns out excellent the switch could do very well this year but as it is as launched its more for the people who either really want a hybrid console and not just a portable or home console and/or are really big nintendo fans and want to play their software at any cost

Official Nintendo shipped numbers:

Dec '12 3.06 million  (Wii U launched November 18, '12)
Mar '13 3.45 million
Jun '13 3.61 million
Sep '13 3.91 million
Dec '13 5.86 million
Mar '14 6.17 million
Jun '14 6.68 million
Sep '14 7.29 million

So first 4 quarters shipped numbers were 3.91, and after 5th quarter 5.86 million (including Christmas 2013).

These are the trailing 4 quarterly shipments for Wii U:

4 quarter ending Sep '13 3.91 million
4 quarter ending Dec '13 2.80 million
4 quarter ending Mar '14 2.72 million
4 quarter ending Jun '14 3.07 million
4 quarter ending Sep '14 3.38 million

From what I know, these are the dates when the numbers were reported, and are reports for the quarter before and not up to that date. 

But let's go with the numbers presented for the sake of argument. The line I bolded would be a full year (and maybe an extra couple of weeks) after the Wii U's launch. 5.86 million is much, much closer to 6 million than 3.5.

In an attempt to predict what I believe will be an incoming response, I should point out that both the financial reports and the sales wiki directly claim that these are units sold (and, yes, units sold to a consumer, not just to a retailer), not merely units shipped.

Those dates are not when they're reported, they're shipments through that date.  They are reported after the date.  Read the financial releases.

The line you bolded is not a full year, it a full year plus a second holiday.  Counting 13.5 months as one year sales is wrong.  Counting 13.5 months including two Decembers as one year sales is very very wrong.

If you want to get any kind of accurate one year (12 months) I would count first 12 months November-to-November which would be around 3.9 million, or first full calendar year January-to-January which is 2.8 million shipped.  Or you know, keep thinking Wii U ever sold 6 million in a year.

I'm expecting Switch to sell at least 7 million units this year, (more likely in the 8 to-10 million range), so the Xbox One family, including Scorpio, would have to sell more than 21 million units to achieve Op's goal. Considering even the PS4 isn't doing that, I find it rather doubtful. 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Switch outsells the Xbox One this year, to be honest, especially with the extra millions it will gain from Japan alone. 

Let's run with that logic for the sake of argument, then. Let's assume the Wii U sold a full two million during the holiday season (going January to January is entirely unfair, as that cuts out the launch period, which the Switch does have). Assuming that is the case, it would unfair to not include the second holiday season, as the Switch will have a launch boost and a holiday boost in the same year. Perhaps sticking in the first two weeks of Wii U sales (500 K or so) and then combining it with the usual holiday. Point is, it's unfair to just use a sole holiday season post launch when Switch's first year will include both launch day and holiday.

And that's assuming the Wii U sold 2 million during a holiday season where its biggest release in a two month span was Sonic Lost World.

I would use launch date to launch + 365 days... I wouldn't count two holidays since those are the highest sales periods of the year.

The biggest release in holiday 2013 is 3D World (Nov 21).

I'm sorry I feel like you're trying to fudge assumptions... and I don't think that will lead to any kind of accurate estimate.

There is an element of fudging things to this, because the Switch is in something of an...unusual predicament due to its launch window being delayed. The gist of what I'm trying to do is separate the Wii U's launch boost from the 2012 holiday boost, and then combine those numbers with the 2013 holiday sales to get a more accurate picture (combining them with 2012 holiday seems unfair as well, as the launch window is also when the fewest games are avaliable).

So, yeah, the estimate probably isn't going to have a great deal of accuracy. With that said, this is a sales prediction thread, no? We don't have a great way to predict sales for a console with its launch window not in a holiday season (I think the last one to do so was the PS2 back in 2000, and even that was relatively close to holiday in October). So we take a stab given the information we have, and if it's wrong, then, hey, we know better for next time.

And you're right about SM3DW. I keeping thinking that it was launched in 2014 since seemingly everything else Nintendo had lined up for that holiday season was.

I believe xbox scorpio will sell around what xbox one did during it's release. If you're getting a 4k tv, you will want an xbox scorpio to show it off. My most anticipated games are RDR 2 and Crackdown 3.

Switch has Japan so i think no.