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I'm expecting Switch to sell at least 7 million units this year, (more likely in the 8 to-10 million range), so the Xbox One family, including Scorpio, would have to sell more than 21 million units to achieve Op's goal. Considering even the PS4 isn't doing that, I find it rather doubtful. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Switch outsells the Xbox One this year, to be honest, especially with the extra millions it will gain from Japan alone.