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MTZehvor on 04 March 2017
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ICStats said:
MTZehvor said:

Let's run with that logic for the sake of argument, then. Let's assume the Wii U sold a full two million during the holiday season (going January to January is entirely unfair, as that cuts out the launch period, which the Switch does have). Assuming that is the case, it would unfair to not include the second holiday season, as the Switch will have a launch boost and a holiday boost in the same year. Perhaps sticking in the first two weeks of Wii U sales (500 K or so) and then combining it with the usual holiday. Point is, it's unfair to just use a sole holiday season post launch when Switch's first year will include both launch day and holiday.

And that's assuming the Wii U sold 2 million during a holiday season where its biggest release in a two month span was Sonic Lost World.

I would use launch date to launch + 365 days... I wouldn't count two holidays since those are the highest sales periods of the year.

The biggest release in holiday 2013 is 3D World (Nov 21).

I'm sorry I feel like you're trying to fudge assumptions... and I don't think that will lead to any kind of accurate estimate.

There is an element of fudging things to this, because the Switch is in something of an...unusual predicament due to its launch window being delayed. The gist of what I'm trying to do is separate the Wii U's launch boost from the 2012 holiday boost, and then combine those numbers with the 2013 holiday sales to get a more accurate picture (combining them with 2012 holiday seems unfair as well, as the launch window is also when the fewest games are avaliable).

So, yeah, the estimate probably isn't going to have a great deal of accuracy. With that said, this is a sales prediction thread, no? We don't have a great way to predict sales for a console with its launch window not in a holiday season (I think the last one to do so was the PS2 back in 2000, and even that was relatively close to holiday in October). So we take a stab given the information we have, and if it's wrong, then, hey, we know better for next time.

And you're right about SM3DW. I keeping thinking that it was launched in 2014 since seemingly everything else Nintendo had lined up for that holiday season was.