Prediction: Xbox One will outsell Switch 3 to 1 this year

[ICStats]

MTZehvor said:

ICStats said:

Those dates are not when they're reported, they're shipments through that date.  They are reported after the date.  Read the financial releases.

The line you bolded is not a full year, it a full year plus a second holiday.  Counting 13.5 months as one year sales is wrong.  Counting 13.5 months including two Decembers as one year sales is very very wrong.

If you want to get any kind of accurate one year (12 months) I would count first 12 months November-to-November which would be around 3.9 million, or first full calendar year January-to-January which is 2.8 million shipped.  Or you know, keep thinking Wii U ever sold 6 million in a year.

Let's run with that logic for the sake of argument, then. Let's assume the Wii U sold a full two million during the holiday season (going January to January is entirely unfair, as that cuts out the launch period, which the Switch does have). Assuming that is the case, it would unfair to not include the second holiday season, as the Switch will have a launch boost and a holiday boost in the same year. Perhaps sticking in the first two weeks of Wii U sales (500 K or so) and then combining it with the usual holiday. Point is, it's unfair to just use a sole holiday season post launch when Switch's first year will include both launch day and holiday.

And that's assuming the Wii U sold 2 million during a holiday season where its biggest release in a two month span was Sonic Lost World.

I would use launch date to launch + 365 days... I wouldn't count two holidays since those are the highest sales periods of the year.

The biggest release in holiday 2013 is 3D World (Nov 21).

I'm sorry I feel like you're trying to fudge assumptions... and I don't think that will lead to any kind of accurate estimate.