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Forums - Sales - Analyst: GTA IV may sell 5.8 mln week one

NJ5 on 01 April 2008
Legend11 said:
NJ5 said:
Legend11 said:
He's actually predicting sales to consumers. The $360 million he has mentioned before* and the $110 million he mentioned is for the sales revenue generated for GameStop (somewhere between 1.222 million and 1.833 million units sold depending on the sales distribution of regular and special edition SKUs).

When he originally made the prediction he expected around a 25% attachment rate. But considering the combined size of the 360/PS3 installed base by the time GTAIV launches the 5.8 million would be around 19-20% attachment rate.

*source:
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9511&Itemid=2

Not if he's talking about America only... See my post above.

 


No he's talking WW numbers. He mentions Halo 3's WW first week numbers and attachment when he is comparing his expected GTAIV's first week numbers and attachment rate. He talks about a 25% attachment rate (in the link I provided) which makes no sense if he just meant North America (there simply aren't that many 360/PS3 consoles in North America).

Sorry, I hadn't read the link. But now that I have, I'm even more confused...

Going by vgchartz data (which should be pretty correct for Halo 3's launch, there was a lot of data about that), Halo 3 had a 37% first week attach rate in America, and 31.6% worldwide.

The link talks about Halo 3 having a 50% attach rate... Do we have another case of a confused analyst here? He seems to be mixing up first week sales with LTD attach rates, it doesn't work.

 



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Pete_Beast on 01 April 2008

Impossible, as hyped as the game is it wont get those sales... That is saying EACH console will sell more than what Halo 3 did in its first week, which was 2million, meaning each would have to sell 2.9million units.

Since its a worldwide launch and multiplatform, I think it can get around 3.5million units... maybe 3.8M.



pichu_pichu on 01 April 2008

thats a little too high, maybe over 2.5 million first week



Legend11 on 01 April 2008
NJ5 said:
Legend11 said:
NJ5 said:
Legend11 said:
He's actually predicting sales to consumers. The $360 million he has mentioned before* and the $110 million he mentioned is for the sales revenue generated for GameStop (somewhere between 1.222 million and 1.833 million units sold depending on the sales distribution of regular and special edition SKUs).

When he originally made the prediction he expected around a 25% attachment rate. But considering the combined size of the 360/PS3 installed base by the time GTAIV launches the 5.8 million would be around 19-20% attachment rate.

*source:
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9511&Itemid=2

Not if he's talking about America only... See my post above.

 


No he's talking WW numbers. He mentions Halo 3's WW first week numbers and attachment when he is comparing his expected GTAIV's first week numbers and attachment rate. He talks about a 25% attachment rate (in the link I provided) which makes no sense if he just meant North America (there simply aren't that many 360/PS3 consoles in North America).

Sorry, I hadn't read the link. But now that I have, I'm even more confused...

Going by vgchartz data (which should be pretty correct for Halo 3's launch, there was a lot of data about that), Halo 3 had a 37% first week attach rate in America, and 31.6% worldwide.

The link talks about Halo 3 having a 50% attach rate... Do we have another case of a confused analyst here? He seems to be mixing up first week sales with LTD attach rates, it doesn't work.

 


 Yeah you're right, his numbers don't make sense the way he's talking about them.



DOATS1 on 01 April 2008

one thing is sure certain about gta 4, it will have insane legs. it may no do expected first week sales, but the legs will make up for it.




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CaptainPrefrences on 01 April 2008
Rath said:
CaptainPrefrences said:
to high. maybe 3?

i also wanted to say that the gta series was the best series EVER made, specially gta san andreas imo

Urgh no. Not the best series ever made and GTA:SA was the worst in the series. Even the 2D top down GTA and GTAII were better than that rubbish. Vice City is the best in the series.

Zelda, Mario, GT, Half Life, Warcraft, Total War - lots of better series.


 how was SA the worst? you could everything in that game.



dsoverpsp on 01 April 2008

waaaay to high
not even Brawl got that first week (America + Japan). And u expect Ps3 (smaller userbase) to sell around 2.4 million?? outrageous



ChichiriMuyo on 01 April 2008

San Andreas pushed 2.25 mil in NA on the PS2 alone in launch week. So, yeah, 5.8 is high, but it's not all that ridiculous if we're talking EU and NA and multiplatform release and a handful of other factors. I'd actually say the people guessing as low as 2.5 mil for the first week are being ridiculous, if we're going to count both regions in, even if more than Halo3's first week sales isn't at all likely either.



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bigjon on 01 April 2008

5.8 is too much, it would have to go Halo on 2 consoles at the same time... not going to happen.

4 million WW First week max. 2.4 million on 360, 1.6 million on PS3



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Retrasado on 01 April 2008

5.8 million? most likely not going to happen. 3-4 million is more likely with 1.1-1.7 mill on PS3 and 1.9-2.3 on 360



Not trying to be a fanboy. Of course, it's hard when you own the best console eve... dang it