By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming Discussion - The Michael Pachter Prediction Tracker Thread

RolStoppable said:
Miguel_Zorro said:
I've made a number of updates. Some of these have some opinion involved - particularly #1 and #8. What do you guys think?

2017 Predictions:
Several made December 20th, 2016 at http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-12-20-what-to-expect-in-the-games-biz-for-2017

1. PS4 Price to $199 within 2017 - Verdict: I'm going with Incorrect. It did it $199 in some sales but I don't believe the ongoing price was $199. However, they did make the default system 1TB instead of 500GB, so this one is debateable.

2. No Rockstar games other than Red Dead Redemption in 2017 - Verdict: Correct. And not even Red Dead Redemption!

3. Call of Duty returns to glory (tough to measure): Verdict: Correct. Call of Duty World War 2 did really well.
- Part two "With a Modern Warfare Title": Verdict: Incorrect. It was World War 2.

4. Switch demand will be high. The Switch will be sold out through September. I believe this prediction as based on a price of $249. Verdict: Correct. Even at a higher price.

5. XBox Scorpio will be $399: Verdict: Incorrect. It's more than that.

6. New Elder Scrolls in 2017 - Verdict: Incorrect

7. No New Half Life game in 2017 - Verdict: Correct

8. "Microsoft will continue to support their systems, including Scorpio, with first party games"
http://gamingbolt.com/scalebound-cancellation-is-unfortunate-xbox-scorpio-will-see-lot-of-first-and-third-party-support-pachter - Verdict: Trending Poorly

4. Pachter overruled his prediction from December 2016 with a new one in January 2017:

http://fortune.com/2017/01/17/nintendo-switch-sales/

He pegged Switch sales at 1m through March 2017 and an LTD of 5m through March 2018.

Looking through this thread here, I pointed out an adjustment to his Switch prediction before. Said adjustment came after the 5m adjustment that I linked here. Giving Pachter credit for getting this one right isn't reasonable when he changes his mind so often. He made three notably different predictions for Switch within one month.

His Switch predictions are reminiscent of what he did for Vita where he had pre-launch predictions that covered "will sell better than the 3DS at $250" and "Vita will be dead on arrival in America."

Ok, I'll put them both up.  I know there were a lot of people who though the Switch wouldn't do well in December and changed their tune in January.  He should know better though.