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Forums - Nintendo - I flew too close to the 1TF sun and my Switch wings melted.

potato_hamster on 04 January 2017
Soundwave said:
If 3DS had sold 100 million units this gen like the PS4 is going to, I would agree this gen would be successful for Nintendo no matter how poorly the Wii U did, but Nintendo is going to come up well short of 100 million 3DS'.

No doubt the evaporation of the PSP market hurts Sony, but it was also only a one generation thing.

Otherwise their console sales have remained best in class by a large margin.

Also rightly or wrongly winning the console race is generally considered "more important", because the majority of software sales occur on the console side, not the portable side. So the company that wins the console race usually has the largest influence on the industry because that's where the majority of software is sold.

It's not just the, the lead platform tends to have significantly more in software sales, so that steers the market heavily. By the end of the generation, it's like the PS4's software will be higher than the X1, Wii U, 3DS and Vita - Combined. That's a huge pile of money.



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Barkley on 04 January 2017
potato_hamster said:

PS4's software will be higher than the X1, Wii U, 3DS and Vita - Combined. That's a huge pile of money.

Yeah I noticed that the other day, it's quite the feat but also not a first for Sony. PS1 and PS2 also sold more software than every other gaming device of the generation combined.



zorg1000 on 04 January 2017
potato_hamster said:
zorg1000 said:

Yes, you are making it look worse than it is, a 80-90 million to 75-80 million decline is not a massive difference. Everybody knows their home consoles have declined with the exception of Wii, nobody will deny that but their overall hardware sales have remained relatively stable, gen over and year after year with 3DS+Wii U showing a modest decline.

What are you talking about? Nobody said they should aim for Wii U sales, you're just spouting nonsense at this point.

Sure, go ahead and use FY93 to FY13, its about a 25% decline, I just said in my last post 3DS+Wii U are down but its not a huge amount, its a modest decline from non-DS/Wii generations. Lets also compare FY94 (10 million) to FY14 (12 million) or FY95 (10 million) to FY15 (10 million).

Overall Nintendo of the last 5 years has seen a modest decline from the early 90s, the late 90s or the early 00s.

You might be content with a 25% decline in overall sales over a 20 year period, but I guarantee you Nintendo's shareholders aren't.

So instead of admitting what you said was wrong, you deflect and change the subject? Good for you.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

potato_hamster on 04 January 2017
zorg1000 said:
potato_hamster said:

You might be content with a 25% decline in overall sales over a 20 year period, but I guarantee you Nintendo's shareholders aren't.

So instead of admitting what you said was wrong, you deflect and change the subject? Good for you.

I already clarified that my 150 million (approximate) is from 1997-1998 when I feel the PS1 started to take over the industry, and not the release of the PS1. I'm not sure what else you want from me.



Soundwave on 04 January 2017
zorg1000 said:
potato_hamster said:

Ohh man, I took the two Nintendo flagship consoles (home console and handheld) when the PS1 was released and compared them to the latest two Nintendo flagship consoles. I'm a monster. But you're right, I must be obfuscating the data to make it look worst than it actually, I guess. So I'll keep them seperate. I should have just talked about home consoles, but then you're comparing SNES lifetime sales (49 million) or N64 (33 million) and compare it to Wii U sales (14 million). Or maybe just handheld sales, but then we'd be comparing Gameboy sales (118 million) and 3DS sales (61 million).

Yeah... that's totally consistent!

Nah you're right. Nintendo should be aiming to about equal Wii U sales with the Nintendo Switch. They should be totally happy with that, right? They have nothing to worry about. They're doing just as well as they were when they were selling Super Nintendos and Gameboys. Of course they are. Also, really cute that you chose FY92 and FY12. Great job. Perhaps you didn't choose FY93 and FY2013 because that's 23.7 million units vs 17.5 million units. Oops.

Yes, you are making it look worse than it is, a 80-90 million to 75-80 million decline is not a massive difference. Everybody knows their home consoles have declined with the exception of Wii, nobody will deny that but their overall hardware sales have remained relatively stable, gen over and year after year with 3DS+Wii U showing a modest decline.

What are you talking about? Nobody said they should aim for Wii U sales, you're just spouting nonsense at this point.

Sure, go ahead and use FY93 to FY13, its about a 25% decline, I just said in my last post 3DS+Wii U are down but its not a huge amount, its a modest decline from non-DS/Wii generations. Lets also compare FY94 (10 million) to FY14 (12 million) or FY95 (10 million) to FY15 (10 million).

Overall Nintendo of the last 5 years has seen a modest decline from the early 90s, the late 90s or the early 00s.

There are some misleading things here though. 

Like you can look at 3DS versus GBA and say "well GBA sold 80 million and 3DS is at 63 million or so, this is not a big decrease". 

But the GBA had a shortened lifespan in which it sold most of its systems over 3 years before the DS came out. 

Imagine where 3DS sales would be if Nintendo launched the Switch or 4DS or whatever in 2014. 

GBA was on pace to hit 100 million, and fairly easily at that. Nintendo rushing DS to market skewed things quite a bit. 

The last time Nintendo had sub-10 million shipments of portables before 3DS was 1996/March 1997 when they shipped 7 million Game Boys. After 1998 with the push of Pokemon and launch of Game Boy Color they've shipped 11+ million portables every year since then .... until we get to the 3DS era. The last 2-3 years of the 3DS have all seen sub-10 million portable shipments, so the wheels have maybe not fallen off with the 3DS, but they've definitely gotten themselves stuck in mud. 

The 6.79 million shipment of 3DS last fiscal year is the lowest number for Nintendo portables in 20+ years. You have to go back to before Pokemon was created to find a lower portable shipment. 



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zorg1000 on 04 January 2017
potato_hamster said:
zorg1000 said:

So instead of admitting what you said was wrong, you deflect and change the subject? Good for you.

I already clarified that my 150 million (approximate) is from 1997-1998 when I feel the PS1 started to take over the industry, and not the release of the PS1. I'm not sure what else you want from me.

150 million is still way off from the real number.

Also what do you mean when PS1 took over? Nintendo shipped more hardware than Sony did in FY97, FY98 & FY99.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 04 January 2017
Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:

Yes, you are making it look worse than it is, a 80-90 million to 75-80 million decline is not a massive difference. Everybody knows their home consoles have declined with the exception of Wii, nobody will deny that but their overall hardware sales have remained relatively stable, gen over and year after year with 3DS+Wii U showing a modest decline.

What are you talking about? Nobody said they should aim for Wii U sales, you're just spouting nonsense at this point.

Sure, go ahead and use FY93 to FY13, its about a 25% decline, I just said in my last post 3DS+Wii U are down but its not a huge amount, its a modest decline from non-DS/Wii generations. Lets also compare FY94 (10 million) to FY14 (12 million) or FY95 (10 million) to FY15 (10 million).

Overall Nintendo of the last 5 years has seen a modest decline from the early 90s, the late 90s or the early 00s.

There are some misleading things here though. 

Like you can look at 3DS versus GBA and say "well GBA sold 80 million and 3DS is at 63 million or so, this is not a big decrease". 

But the GBA had a shortened lifespan in which it sold most of its systems over 3 years before the DS came out. 

Imagine where 3DS sales would be if Nintendo launched the Switch or 4DS or whatever in 2014. 

GBA was on pace to hit 100 million, and fairly easily at that. Nintendo rushing DS to market skewed things quite a bit. 

The last time Nintendo had sub-10 million shipments of portables before 3DS was 1996/March 1997 when they shipped 7 million Game Boys. After 1998 with the push of Pokemon and launch of Game Boy Color they've shipped 11+ million portables every year since then .... until we get to the 3DS era. The last 2-3 years of the 3DS have all seen sub-10 million portable shipments, so the wheels have maybe not fallen off with the 3DS, but they've definitely gotten themselves stuck in mud. 

The 6.79 million shipment of 3DS last fiscal year is the lowest number for Nintendo portables in 20+ years. You have to go back to before Pokemon was created to find a lower portable shipment. 

Sure, just like its misleading to say 3DS is a decline from Gameboy. A device with a 6 year cycle vs one with a 12 year cycle.

The whole argument started when he said 3DS+Wii U is a massive decline from pre-Playstation era sales, which is untrue.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 04 January 2017
RolStoppable said:
We get it, zorg. The Wii U and 3DS are your life and you would take a bullet for Nintendo.

thank you, finally somebody understands



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

potato_hamster on 04 January 2017
zorg1000 said:
potato_hamster said:

I already clarified that my 150 million (approximate) is from 1997-1998 when I feel the PS1 started to take over the industry, and not the release of the PS1. I'm not sure what else you want from me.

150 million is still way off from the real number.

Also what do you mean when PS1 took over? Nintendo shipped more hardware than Sony did in FY97, FY98 & FY99.

You're right. I forgot how back ended the Gameboy's sales were. it was closer to 120 million. My bad.


PS1 sales:

FY96: 9.2M
FY97: 19.4M
FY98: 21.6M
FY99: 18.5M

N64 sales:
FY96:  11.9M
FY97: 10.0M
FY98:  7.9M
FY99:  7.1M

I mean, I don't know about you, but it looks to me like something happened in FY97 where the PS1 sold almost twice as much as the N64. Since that point it's been a rare occurrance for a playstation home consoles to sell less than 18 million (combined) in any given year outside of the PS3's rough start. As for Nintendo? It's only happened a handful of times since when the Wii was at is peak. To me, that represents a shift.

 

 



zorg1000 on 04 January 2017
potato_hamster said:
zorg1000 said:

150 million is still way off from the real number.

Also what do you mean when PS1 took over? Nintendo shipped more hardware than Sony did in FY97, FY98 & FY99.

You're right. I forgot how back ended the Gameboy's sales were. it was closer to 120 million. My bad.


PS1 sales:

FY96: 9.2M
FY97: 19.4M
FY98: 21.6M
FY99: 18.5M

N64 sales:
FY96:  11.9M
FY97: 10.0M
FY98:  7.9M
FY99:  7.1M

I mean, I don't know about you, but it looks to me like something happened in FY97 where the PS1 sold almost twice as much as the N64. Since that point it's been a rare occurrance for a playstation home consoles to sell less than 18 million (combined) in any given year outside of the PS3's rough start. As for Nintendo? It's only happened a handful of times since when the Wii was at is peak. To me, that represents a shift.

 

 

haha dude you cant keep switching goalposts, you cant go from console+handheld sales to just consoles to support your arguments.

Nintendo shipped more hardware than Sony did in each of those years.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.