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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Is the game industry headed for a new crash?

 

A CRASH IS COMING?

Yes. 42 18.18%
 
No. 117 50.65%
 
Maybe. 44 19.05%
 
It is the smartphones. 28 12.12%
 
Total:231
Lawlight said:
pray4mojo said:

Society is moving to mobile and tablet gaming. Traditional gaming in front of a tv with a controller is going to continue to decline. So, it depends on how you define recession. 

When you think about it, people that enjoyed gaming in 2005 didn't stop. They just migrated. 

The same thing could be applied to movies and yet people still watch on a TV or go to the theatre. I'm not seeing any reason to think that traditional gamers' numbers are declining.

Movies have declined... by alot. One look at the inflation adjusted list and it's confirmed. Snow White and 101 Dalmations out earned Frozen and The Lion King. Actual ticket sales are nothing like they were back in the day. 

The same thing is happening in our industry. Line up all three consoles worldwide and compare them to the first three years last generation. It's down, by alot. When you look at handheld hardware, they're all but dead. So dead in fact that Nintendo saw fit to ditch their dedicated handheld business and merge it with their home console division. The writing is on the wall.

Does this mean the end? No. Like you said, movies are still popular. Console gaming will remain popular as well. But it's naive and flat out ignorant to suggest that there hasn't been a drop off. This is the first generation that didn't outsell the prior one. It's happening.



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Yet Splatoon, a new IP on a failed console shifts 5 million.



pray4mojo said:
Lawlight said:

The same thing could be applied to movies and yet people still watch on a TV or go to the theatre. I'm not seeing any reason to think that traditional gamers' numbers are declining.

Movies have declined... by alot. One look at the inflation adjusted list and it's confirmed. Snow White and 101 Dalmations out earned Frozen and The Lion King. Actual ticket sales are nothing like they were back in the day. 

The same thing is happening in our industry. Line up all three consoles worldwide and compare them to the first three years last generation. It's down, by alot. When you look at handheld hardware, they're all but dead. So dead in fact that Nintendo saw fit to ditch their dedicated handheld business and merge it with their home console division. The writing is on the wall.

Does this mean the end? No. Like you said, movies are still popular. Console gaming will remain popular as well. But it's naive and flat out ignorant to suggest that there hasn't been a drop off. This is the first generation that didn't outsell the prior one. It's happening.

Exaggeration at its finest. Where are the numbers exactly? What does it matter if Snow White out earned Frozen? How many options did movie goers have then compared to now? Do those numbers take into account Netflix, cable, dvds/blu rays and all the ways (that are profitable for studios, so no illegal streaming) that someone can watch a movie?

Seriously. Do people really not realise how comparisons work?



Splatoon feels like the only new franchise in like forever to really be birthed on traidtional gaming platforms to come out and be a hit and even that was kinda gimped by the Wii U.

The one concerning thing is we're 3 years into this gen and there isn't really a new huge breakout hit IP from anyone. Minecraft was from the last gen.

I do thing console gaming might be in some trouble, because there's too much entertainment available today. Netflix, Hulu, PVRs, smartphones with games/social media, etc. etc. there's too much to play, watch, consume that I think we're entering an era of like

In a funny way too I think Switch could accelerate the decline of the traditional console. Even if it's a temporary success, what's going to happen is Samsung and other tablet makers are going to make "me too" knock offs, and the hybrid idea of a tablet form factor device that can also serve as a home console is going to become standard for most tablets going forward because everyone will copy that.

So basically everyone who has a tablet or even phone in the future could have a decently powerful console rig right in their phone/tablet already, all they'll need is like a bluetooth controller and they can play.



naruball said:
pray4mojo said:

Movies have declined... by alot. One look at the inflation adjusted list and it's confirmed. Snow White and 101 Dalmations out earned Frozen and The Lion King. Actual ticket sales are nothing like they were back in the day. 

The same thing is happening in our industry. Line up all three consoles worldwide and compare them to the first three years last generation. It's down, by alot. When you look at handheld hardware, they're all but dead. So dead in fact that Nintendo saw fit to ditch their dedicated handheld business and merge it with their home console division. The writing is on the wall.

Does this mean the end? No. Like you said, movies are still popular. Console gaming will remain popular as well. But it's naive and flat out ignorant to suggest that there hasn't been a drop off. This is the first generation that didn't outsell the prior one. It's happening.

Exaggeration at its finest. Where are the numbers exactly? What does it matter if Snow White out earned Frozen? How many options did movie goers have then compared to now? Do those numbers take into account Netflix, cable, dvds/blu rays and all the ways (that are profitable for studios, so no illegal streaming) that someone can watch a movie?

Seriously. Do people really not realise how comparisons work?

If you are telling me that people aren't going to the actual theaters because there's so many other options like Netflix, cable, physical media for the home etc... then I am in total agreement. 

The gaming industry is changing in the similar ways. It's not dying out (the love of playing video games). It's just migrating and splitting up into many different areas. 



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I don't think the industry will crash, if it was going to, it would have during the financial crisis the world had several years ago and while Xbox360 had to replace all their stock because of a manfunction and PS3 was sold at a huge loss.

Sales at the moment are good. Ignoring the fact digital sales are on the up (and they are a rip off still), many games are selling as expected if not more in some cases. FIFA sold more than ever, CoD went down because people were tired of the direction. Battlefield 1 sold more than 4, first few weeks. Titanfall 2 and Watch_dogs 2 both sold poorly because of the reception of their first iterations and release date (generally both are considered improvements on the first ones).

But....

invetedlotus123 said:
The crash we may end up seeing is on the development side. With production costs skyrocketing so much that even selling 5 million you can't break even. 

I agree with this. I think gaming should move to more of a streamlined factory line setup. More and more developers are using Unreal Engine when they didn't before (Street Fighter 5 and Tekken 7 for example). Publishers licenced develoeprs should work with each other to produce the products on time and for good costs instead of shoving stupid amounts in for minimal profit.

 

Although your facts are little weird. Treyarch didn't make Modern Warfare 2, and don't remember any Call of Duty developer ever filing for bankruptcy. Those games made so much money (mainly for Activision) that I doubt they would have. THQ on the other hand.



Hmm, pie.

Yes, didn't you hear? He's coming back!



Soundwave said:
Splatoon feels like the only new franchise in like forever to really be birthed on traidtional gaming platforms to come out and be a hit and even that was kinda gimped by the Wii U.

The one concerning thing is we're 3 years into this gen and there isn't really a new huge breakout hit IP from anyone. Minecraft was from the last gen.

I do thing console gaming might be in some trouble, because there's too much entertainment available today. Netflix, Hulu, PVRs, smartphones with games/social media, etc. etc. there's too much to play, watch, consume that I think we're entering an era of like

In a funny way too I think Switch could accelerate the decline of the traditional console. Even if it's a temporary success, what's going to happen is Samsung and other tablet makers are going to make "me too" knock offs, and the hybrid idea of a tablet form factor device that can also serve as a home console is going to become standard for most tablets going forward because everyone will copy that.

So basically everyone who has a tablet or even phone in the future could have a decently powerful console rig right in their phone/tablet already, all they'll need is like a bluetooth controller and they can play.

The challenge, of course, is in how those other companies can get all the mobile developers to create games with real controllers in mind. That's the issue. Nintendo's console is going to feature all of it's games with real dedicated buttons and analog sticks. Mobile games are totally fractured.



niceguygameplayer said:

I got to looking up game sales for several game series. I saw a disturbing theme. Most series seem to be on a decline. I mostly compared first week sales for games in certain series, but also used other methods.

Multipltform games: Call of Duty is down. Assassins Creed down. Titanfall... fallen. Final Fantasy 15 in Japan, has only sold less than half of what 13 did. We will see about the rest of the world.

 

Xbox: Forza down. Halo down. Gears of War: grinding down.

 

Playstation: Gran Turismo down. God of War down. LittleBigPlanet: Littler! The only improvement I saw is Uncharted slightly up.

 

Nintendo: NSMB U is way down from NSMB Wii. Golden Sun down. Smash Bros.: Smashed. Well, compared to the last Wii version. Pokémon is slightly up from the last 3DS game, but that may be because of the Pokémon Go craze of summer. 

 

So what is going on? 

Maybe if you actually put thought into why each of those series is down, you might have come to different conclusions than repeating a silly doomsday scenario which has now been predicted for 5 years since mobiles rose up. Btw, the gaming industry in the 80s only crashed in North America, not Japan, Europe or elsewhere.

CoD down: fatigue of the franchise, bad games in a row, not giving what the fans want. Other shooters eating its share like Destiny, Overwatch and Battlefield

Titanfall: sandwitched between BF1 and CoD

FF15: Japan moving away from traditional gaming is a process that's been going for many years, did you live under a rock?

Gran Turismo down: last main entry came a week after the PS4 launched in Europe, no one cared for a ps3 game in that week. The only surprise here is that it still managed to sell 5 million.

God of War down: que? When ever did prequels sell more than main games?

NSMBU down: the game was never gonna sell as much as the Wii title, there are 2x less Wii U consoles in circulation than there are copies of that game

 

I mean if you're so worried about videogaming, why don't you actually do real research and look at the financial statements of the companies? Here I'll help you out with one, ActiBlizz's latest reports http://investor.activision.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1104659-16-154713&CIK=718877



pray4mojo said:

If you are telling me that people aren't going to the actual theaters because there's so many other options like Netflix, cable, physical media for the home etc... then I am in total agreement. 

The gaming industry is changing in the similar ways. It's not dying out (the love of playing video games). It's just migrating and splitting up into many different areas. 

That's part of what I'm saying.

The other part is, let's not compare isolated cases but total numbers (with or without inflation). Do we have total numbers for how much money movies (or video games) made in 2016 compared to, say, 1993?