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Forums - Sales Discussion - November 2016 NPD Thread! Hardware estimates in the OP!

Aura7541 said:
Has Zhuge said anything about Windows Central's numbers? This is probably the best way to vet WC. Otherwise, we need to wait until January and hope that Aquamarine reopens her account...

He hasnt tweeted in 5 days...

We could also wait to see.how close VGC estimates are to what Window Central is saying.



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jason1637 said:
Aura7541 said:
Has Zhuge said anything about Windows Central's numbers? This is probably the best way to vet WC. Otherwise, we need to wait until January and hope that Aquamarine reopens her account...

He hasnt tweeted in 5 days...

We could also wait to see.how close VGC estimates are to what Window Central is saying.

VGC estimates are also unhelpful, so depending on those is meaningless...



CGI-Quality said:
jason1637 said:

Thats not how it works.

Mind giving him a lesson on it, then? :p

Well first is that MS probably knows t he numbers. In yhe last few NPDs they have said they were the best selling console befote leaks come out. They just arent allowed to say the numbers but can claim they sold best. Also MS has never compared their hardwarr to their competitors in such a way Bandorr was saying.



Shadow1980 said:
1.1M for the PS4 and 1M for the XBO would be a disaster. That's a 28.5% and 22.8% YoY decline, respectively. Considering the release of the Pro, plus strong YoY growth for the XBO with the S, I find those numbers very, very hard to believe.

I'm going to wait for Aqua to release numbers. While her Twitter page is down, she did say she was going to be gone for the entire month of December, so she may have temporarily shut it down herself. We'll find out for sure come early January.

Just out of curiosity are consoles sales in Nov linked to how COD performs? 



jason1637 said:
Aura7541 said:
Has Zhuge said anything about Windows Central's numbers? This is probably the best way to vet WC. Otherwise, we need to wait until January and hope that Aquamarine reopens her account...

He hasnt tweeted in 5 days...

We could also wait to see.how close VGC estimates are to what Window Central is saying.

He's actually tweeting right now and has been over the last few days.

I tweeted him last night about it but had no reply. 



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SWORDF1SH said:
jason1637 said:

He hasnt tweeted in 5 days...

We could also wait to see.how close VGC estimates are to what Window Central is saying.

He's actually tweeting right now and has been over the last few days.

I tweeted him last night about it but had no reply. 

Oh. My apologies on my phone it showed that he hadn't tweeted in 5 days but i see his recent tweets on my laptop. 



Strange that Greenberg would retweet those numbers, whether true or not. "Hey look, our numbers are way down from last year but we didn't get outsold by as much as you might think!" Fact is, both systems would be down quite a bit.



Shadow1980 said:
1.1M for the PS4 and 1M for the XBO would be a disaster. That's a 28.5% and 22.8% YoY decline, respectively. Considering the release of the Pro, plus strong YoY growth for the XBO with the S, I find those numbers very, very hard to believe.

I'm going to wait for Aqua to release numbers. While her Twitter page is down, she did say she was going to be gone for the entire month of December, so she may have temporarily shut it down herself. We'll find out for sure come early January.

But this is strictly for Black Friday (the singular day) that we're talking here, a day for the value shopper... So why would we expect people to go out in droves to pick up a Ps4 pro, not only during the busiest shopping day of the year but also on a day when there were no ps4 pro bundles or sales? Now consider that Sony themselves said they were surprised by the amount of first time buyers for the Pro as opposed to early Og adopters double dipping. Would it be reasonable to assume that the pro is siphoning off the slims sales? I think that's reasonable. Again, Sony implied that they thought pro owners would more so be double dippers than people new to the brand.

Now, after taking all that into consideration...last year was Sonys best Black Friday ever for sales in the US. Something like 1.54 million on that day. Why would it be terrible if they didn't perform as well as their best Bf ever which was last year when we know that the Pro didn't have any sales yet people are migrating to the premium model in droves?

 

I just think it's too early to say much until we see how the month did. With the focus of Black Friday becoming more and more like a week of sales rather than a day, and where the information that we're speculating on only focuses on one single day out of that week, and knowing that there were no extra incentives for people to go after the pro during this day then it starts to become apparent that our dataset is skewed and incomplete.



aLkaLiNE said:
Shadow1980 said:
1.1M for the PS4 and 1M for the XBO would be a disaster. That's a 28.5% and 22.8% YoY decline, respectively. Considering the release of the Pro, plus strong YoY growth for the XBO with the S, I find those numbers very, very hard to believe.

I'm going to wait for Aqua to release numbers. While her Twitter page is down, she did say she was going to be gone for the entire month of December, so she may have temporarily shut it down herself. We'll find out for sure come early January.

But this is strictly for Black Friday (the singular day) that we're talking here, a day for the value shopper... So why would we expect people to go out in droves to pick up a Ps4 pro, not only during the busiest shopping day of the year but also on a day when there were no ps4 pro bundles or sales? Now consider that Sony themselves said they were surprised by the amount of first time buyers for the Pro as opposed to early Og adopters double dipping. Would it be reasonable to assume that the pro is siphoning off the slims sales? I think that's reasonable. Again, Sony implied that they thought pro owners would more so be double dippers than people new to the brand.

Now, after taking all that into consideration...last year was Sonys best Black Friday ever for sales in the US. Something like 1.54 million on that day. Why would it be terrible if they didn't perform as well as their best Bf ever which was last year when we know that the Pro didn't have any sales yet people are migrating to the premium model in droves?

 

I just think it's too early to say much until we see how the month did. With the focus of Black Friday becoming more and more like a week of sales rather than a day, and where the information that we're speculating on only focuses on one single day out of that week, and knowing that there were no extra incentives for people to go after the pro during this day then it starts to become apparent that our dataset is skewed and incomplete.

I'm confused, I thought the 1.0 and 1.1 figures were for the month, not for the BF weekend?



Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

Sooooooo pricecuts to both consoles and the release of new HW like the PS4 Pro is not what US consumers want?