I agree with both of you. Most big franchises now wouldn't have been the biggest selling when they first started. They need to establish themselves first, get talk going then riding that talk hearsay on a sequel... yet they won't count towards the new IP thing anymore.

Oh and new content is dead, gaming industry might have the same issue that Hollywood currently does. For every oscar winning film made which only just makes a profit, there are 15 licenced or sequels which make millions.

I kinda agree and kinda disagree. Yes, there's a lack of new AAA-games (IPs), and why that is is actually a good question. Quite a lot of new IP's are trying new things that just doesn't work out well (like Evolve), and that's on the developers and publishers. But there is a lot of new IP's out there that's doing really well, like a bunch of mobile games!

Destiny, Splatoon, Overwatch, No Man's Sky... All of them are new IPs that have been released in the last three years and have been a great commercial success. Of course there are more established IPs than new ones (mathematically would be difficult otherwise), so it's natural that most best sellers are old IPs. Lately, almost every year there is at least a new IP among the yearly best sellers, and a bunch of new IPs successful enough.

Just watch as Nintendo will release another awesome new IP soon enough..