I'd say 40-50 million.

Ask Nintendo.

A lot is going to depend on software sales. They're saving money by consolidating platforms but they'll need a high attach rate for it to be worthwhile. I'm not saying it needs to be as high as handheld+console numbers but it will need to be a good deal higher than either one alone--that shouldn't be hard with the Wii U but I don't know about the 3DS. If they end up selling way less overall hardware and way less overall software, then this will be a failed experiment.

That being said, I think dedicated Nintendo fans will keep them afloat, at the very least, plus those who were on the fence over Nintendo devices previously. I do not believe they'll hit pay-dirt with the young adult casuals they targeted with the reveal, however.

I think they'll be content with 40 million and a good, healthy attach rate. Not happy, but content.

The console part of that equation is not ... looking good. 

Lets be honest, unless they upgrade this thing significantly, it is going to look badly outdated and third parties will predictably treat it how they treat Nintendo consoles. 

Beyond that, Nintendo doesn't have a breakout novelty with this machine ... it's basically just a Wii U, but you can now taking it out of the house instead of just out of the living room. 

There is no Wiimote here that's new and different from anything else and changes the game play. The game is the same, whether you play at home or on the road. 

The only fundamentally new thing this gen is really VR, but VR is too expensive to be workable for the audience type Nintendo emphasizes. 

Yh i was thinking the same thing. It's a strange position they have put themselves in. I am inclined to believe they are really pushing for the mobile aspect of the console for differentiation. Because if you really look at it, it's not boding well for them on the home console front at all. Its not gonna be as powerful as the XB1, and even that machine needs to use a dynamic rez ranging from sub 720p under load to around 900p when runnig amodern game like Titanfall2. 

How will the NS run games like that? 540p to 720p? Nintendo made a choice, they are about to release hardware in 2017 that's weaker than hardware that was released over 3yrs ago (at the time it launches). I don't understand how or why they would do that, they seem to me to be taking a very very heavy gamble on the mobile aspect of the NS. 

Hope it works out for them....

If it were a regular Joe console, I would say the Switch would have to best the N64 in sales to be considered a success. As it may be effectively replacing two product lines, I would imagine Nintendo would see anything short of SNES numbers to be a failure.

As long as Nintendo makes enough profit to keep the company going then it is a success. As for the comparison between consoles, I think 50-60 million will be perfect. Not Wii status but honestly, I do not want it to be like the Wii, because it will just get shovel ware and low quality games just because third parties just want to make an easy buck. I do not want it to sell less than 50 million LT because that can hinder how third parties view the system in terms of profitability. Let us just hope for the best though.

Well, to be better than the WiiU 20 million will be fine.
To have a decent lifetime lenght, 30-40 million will be good.
To be impressive, 50 million.
To be a smash hit 70 million.
To be a shocking amazing awesome comeback, 90 million.

The hybrid approach should be synergistic for software sales. Console people will finally be able to play the handheld titles and vice versa. So I expect software sales per hardware unit should be higher than on the separate devices.

Depends on your perspective, doesn't it? From Nintendo's perspective; is it making money? From fan boys perspective; is it outselling every other console out there? From (moderate) fans perspective; is it doing well enough?

Personally, I'd say it has to do at the very least 30-40m to be somewhat successful, and selling 50m would be doing great, and selling more than the 3DS would be awesome, and selling more than PS4 would be crazy.