A lot is going to depend on software sales. They're saving money by consolidating platforms but they'll need a high attach rate for it to be worthwhile. I'm not saying it needs to be as high as handheld+console numbers but it will need to be a good deal higher than either one alone--that shouldn't be hard with the Wii U but I don't know about the 3DS. If they end up selling way less overall hardware and way less overall software, then this will be a failed experiment.
That being said, I think dedicated Nintendo fans will keep them afloat, at the very least, plus those who were on the fence over Nintendo devices previously. I do not believe they'll hit pay-dirt with the young adult casuals they targeted with the reveal, however.
I think they'll be content with 40 million and a good, healthy attach rate. Not happy, but content.
