Shadow1980 said:
Announcements of new systems don't ever have any visible effect on sales of systems they're replacing. However, the actual release of new systems does have an effect that is almost always immediate and pronounced. DS sales were already declining before the 3DS came out, but started to absolutely crater once the 3DS was released. The DS wasn't doing amazing when it first came out, but even then it caused GBA sales to have a noticeably sharp dive. We see the same pattern in other product lines besides Nintendo handhelds. Perhaps the only time a new system didn't have an immediate effect on its predecessor's sales was the PS3 in the U.S., and that might have had something to do with the $500 price tag at launch. It wasn't until the PS3 was reduced to $400 that the PS2's decline in sales started to experience a pronounced acceleration. But that was one exception for a rule that seems to be true in every other case. Since the Switch doubles as both a home console and a handheld, and will likely be marketed as such (the reveal video even focused more on its portability than the fact that it's also playable at home on your TV), I expect it to cause an immediate and pronounced YoY drop in 3DS sales. The 3DS is doing fine now, but it could very well be a last gasp. The 3DS will almost certainly be down quite a bit in 2017, by holiday 2018 it will likely be dead in the water sales-wise, and it could be discontinued before the end of 2019. |
The actual word and push from Nintendo though is that it is a home console that is portable, not a handheld. And yes, there is a difference. I bet it will be marketed straight at the console audience first because of 1) price (the Switch will be WAY too expensive for a handheld), 2) battery life (early models I bet will have ok battery life at best), and 3) the 3DS is currently riding a bit of a wave and is making them easy money. So they'll ride the wave until a price drop makes the Switch a more plausible option for the handheld devotees and then you'll see your handheld IPs make the jump in larger numbers and a shift in marketing tone. For now, portability will be pushed as a feature, but the system won't be framed as a handheld.
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