KBG29 said:
I don't think so. Next year will have sub $200 deals on PS4 Slim and XBOS. Plus the Pro will be $300, and as you said, the Scorpio will be available as well. I don't know where to put the switch, but I think it is better to look at the overall market regardless of generations. If you look at it that way, I think next holiday will be amoung the best in the history of the industry. In addition, next year will have a ton of push from VR being widly available, and the experiences spreading. Next year their will be a whole years worth the VR Games, Interactive Experiences, and Creative/Productive Software. Sony will be pushing PSVR very hard, and Micorosft will be touting VR with the release of the Scorpio. Finally, non gaming and non entertainment will really start to blossom on PS4 and XBO next year as Sony and Micorsoft continue to reach for larger and larger markets. Universal Windows Applications will really start to take off, and this will force Sony to offer similar abilities. PlayStation Vue will continue to expand it's offerings, and it will be joined by Hulu, Youtube, and Direct TV Now. By the end of next year, the breadth of content and ease of use will outstrip every other device on the market by a long shot. So, I fully expect next year to sell more than this year, but I also think we are many years away from consoles hitting their peak sales. The XBO and PS4 Family of platforms will continue to sell better and better for a long time to come. |
Well that's a very optimistic view of things.
Personally I doubt VR is going to amount to much until the head gear is significantly better and less intrusive (and ugly). I understand Vive is looking to release a wireless pack, which will help a lot. But there remain considerable barriers to entry for most people, even with PSVR being comparatively very cheap.
MS does seem to be pitching Scorpio at a market segment willing to pay a higher price, so even though it is VR ready, the relatively high price for Scorpio and the high price for Oculus seems like it's not going to do much for VR or be the go to VR combination. And the relatively higher price for Scorpio probably means Scorpio's imact on holiday sales will be modest.
If Nintendo markets Switch as a home console, I think it will start out disappointingly. If it is marketed as a handheld, which also plugs in to your TV then it has good sales potential. The main risk of producing one product to satisfy 2 markets is that you may end up disappointing both and end up with lower over all sales. As a home console it would be hard to do worse in sales than Wii U. But as it is a replacement for Wii U and 3DS, it's really 3DS sales that is the lower end of the benchmark, and arguably 3DS+Wii U sales that should be the minimum target. I like the concept of Switch, but it's unknown territory, so cautious optimisim is called for IMO.
I don't know if PS4Pro fropping to that $299 level is necessarily going to have the impact that consoles dropping into that price zone normally have. Since you can already get a PS4 for less than that and the cheaper PS4 does all the exact same things as the PS4Pro, only at a lower resolution. But still for the most part and for anyone without a 4K TV the experience will be close enough.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix
