They tired at the start with the Wii U and tired originally with the Gamecube. So I don't agree that is what will make them bite the dust. Infact they actually suffer the most if they did the exact same thing as the other companies.  

I think if they make a strong library, the device will do well. Now that they don't have to find ways of supporting both Wii U and 3DS, I think they can. 

Wii was a one time thing that won't be repeated probably ever again because no one was really making games for casuals at all, thus giving Nintendo a huge audience to themselves, and Nintendo caught lightning in a bottle with Wii Sports and Wii Fit.

Obviously today that has changed as there are probably more casual games being made than any other type thanks to thousands of games available on iOS, Android, and Facebook.

Its not casual enough for the NX. Im sure Just Dance and Skylanders will be leading the way in third party support.

I don't disagree that it is theoretically possible that the NX could beat PS4 and XB1 in their core market, I just don't think that Nintendo would be wise to attempt it.  It's a bit like the "why doesn't Nintendo release Mario Cart on mobile, they'd make lots of money" discussions - I agree it'd make shed loads of money, but it is a short term strategy that leads to Nintendo being "just another games publisher".

I don't think the console market could sustain three consoles in the core market.

You make it sound like third parties can't make a strong library.

The console market held perfectly fine throughout ten years of Wii, PS3 and Xbox 360.

Rockstar doesn't five two shits about Nintendo

Well , it means Nintendo fans who like RDR on Ps3 or Xbox 360 have to buy either PS4 or Xbox One ( it's not even coming to PC ) . Like i said before Nintendo will not compete directly with powerhouse console like PS4 and Xbox One. NX will just compliment to other console who already exist on the market, NX will not fail but it will not dominate either. So fans should not be worry.

Actually I do think Mario Kart iOS/Android will happen, eventually. Nintendo seriously threatening Sony/MS in the core market directly ... not so much. 

It's way too late this generation anyway, I don't know why some people are in such denial about this. The PS2 whupped the GameCube's ass hard with just an 18 month headstart, the NX is supposed to challenge the PS4 when it has a 3+ year headstart and probably close to 50 million sell through?

Are you kidding me? Who logically thinks this is possible? NX if it's just a home console is likely not catching the XBox One any time soon even. It would be a third place console. 

That's why the hybrid approach at least makes some sense, at least that's something different and more in the portable market rather than trying to compete head on for the home console sector. 

Not for Nintendo, I truthfully believe that. Actually lets scratch that, Western Library on Nintendo. They should and could try to establish third party in Japan. This is the best thing strategy for them.