Yeah I remember hearing 300,000 occulus rift and about 150,000 Vive, numbers that have been passed around.

It ll be quite a while until either OR or Vive break 1m units sold.

Lol, that's ridiculous, VR is years away from mainstream success with the prices we're seeing now. If all those VR devices combined move more than 2.6 million by year's end, it should be considered a success.

I dont expect OR or Vive to ever break 1M. According to this report vr adoption on Steam reached a standstill http://uploadvr.com/report-vr-adoption-steam-reached-standstill/

VR in its current iteration is going to die out before the 2020s roll.

VR might come back in 10 or 20 years when the technology is cheap and advanced enough, when features like wireless, featherlight headset, 4k screen, no SDE, no nausea are standard.

I think AR is gonna be the next big thing. Google Glass with the stupid camera integrated into the frame.

AR is a much more likely contender, but to me it's more of a gimmick for now, but it has potential for sure.

Vive is just insanely expensive, and the implementation of VR in gaming is simply too weak to have any kind of impact yet. I see the weirdest examples of VR ready games all the time. Then there's the added bonus of the relatively big performance demands for proper VR, as the icing on the cake, as very few actually have hardware capable of rendering proper VR images.

Yeah, too soon, way too soon.

all those things you listed possibly with the exception of wireless should/could already make it into the next revisions and I expect the PC versions of those to hit in 2-3 years

and so should the next PSVR, which I expect alongside the PS5 in 3-4 years

ofcourse those are my estimates if investment-lvl into VR remains high - if it's mostly abondoned by the market leading companies we could look at the time spans you are suggesting

Why would it die out by 2020. 4K wireless headsets will already be possible by 2020.

It's still bulky, pre production prototype, yet selft sustained wireless AR+VR headset
http://venturebeat.com/2016/08/17/up-close-with-intels-project-alloy-open-hardware-arvr-headset/
4 years is a long time nowadays in tech terms. Certainly won't take another 10-20 years.

Yeah no 4K120fps VR in up to date graphics is not gonna be possible for a long ass time and certainly not 2-3 years. In 3 years PS5 will define the new graphics standards again and gpus will soon need to cope with the new demands. Today we're barely getting 4k60fps on a single screen with $800 gpus on modern games like Forza Horizon 3 and Gears 4.

Like I say: long ass time before technology is up there at mass market price points.

It's gonna die because VR is not a grassroot medium, it's not gonna conquer the world bottom to top. The indies with their 5 minute "cool for once" demos aren't system sellers. PCVR is already dying, PSVR is gonna be a fad for some time, and then it will die and we will look back on it as that expensive accessory for PS4, maybe it'll be relevant enough to be compatible with PS5 with a new updated version. But slowly it'll fade away like Kinect and Wii.

We're also reaching a point where technology isn't moving as fast anymore. The changes in the world between 1997-2007 are multiple times bigger than 2007-2017.

VR in the 90s died

VR in the 10s will die too

VR in the 30s might have a chance

2.6M would be insane for Playstation VR at the end of 2016!!!

with eyetracking and foveated rendering the processing costs will drop by a huge amount because only a small percentage of the screen has to be rendered at the highest resolution

and the eye tracking solution is rdy for production within the next year

All that is easily achievable within the next 5 years.

AR has even less possible applications than VR and as such is not even an option for consumers.