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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter: If the NX flops, Nintendo will still have 9.5 Billion dollars in the bank (They have 10 last time Pachter checked)

Stefan.De.Machtige said:

They need a minumum of two things to regain or even better retain their hardware market:

  • 40/50 million NX sales (with profit)
  • An enthousiastic, though a bit small fanbase who like talking about Nintendo products

If they fail in either these things, they might have one go left. But if that also fails, then Nintendo will be default 3rd party in some sort.

Sadly Nintendo has been attacking Youtubers who make video's of Nintendo's hardware and games, so that diminishes the fanbase/free advertising on that front.

Some of these "Fan Games" are also really really really good, Like Pokemon Uranium and Another Metroid 2 Remake.. Nintendo should really have hired these guys and released the games officially instead of just canning them outright, such a missed opportunity and bad publicity for Nintendo.

Then they closed down the Super Mario Bros X, The Legend of Zelda: The Hero of Time Movie, The Legend of Zelda Ocarina of Time 2D and dozens of other fan-based non-profit projects.
I get that Nintendo should Protect it's I.P. But they seriously over do it and that impacts the community in my opinion, especially considering that other companies will often support such efforts.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

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Pemalite said:
Stefan.De.Machtige said:

They need a minumum of two things to regain or even better retain their hardware market:

  • 40/50 million NX sales (with profit)
  • An enthousiastic, though a bit small fanbase who like talking about Nintendo products

If they fail in either these things, they might have one go left. But if that also fails, then Nintendo will be default 3rd party in some sort.

Sadly Nintendo has been attacking Youtubers who make video's of Nintendo's hardware and games, so that diminishes the fanbase/free advertising on that front.

Some of these "Fan Games" are also really really really good, Like Pokemon Uranium and Another Metroid 2 Remake.. Nintendo should really have hired these guys and released the games officially instead of just canning them outright, such a missed opportunity and bad publicity for Nintendo.

Then they closed down the Super Mario Bros X, The Legend of Zelda: The Hero of Time Movie, The Legend of Zelda Ocarina of Time 2D and dozens of other fan-based non-profit projects.
I get that Nintendo should Protect it's I.P. But they seriously over do it and that impacts the community in my opinion, especially considering that other companies will often support such efforts.

If find it difficult to say if those shutdowns have any effect. Sure, they can push great fan service, but on the other hand it also deludes the Brand/Range by having these versions. Someone with a free Pokemon Uranium might not buy the new version at all.



In the wilderness we go alone with our new knowledge and strength.

last92 said:
But excess cash is not a good thing per se. It means that Nintendo doesn't know how to invest it for profitable projects=lack of creativity and planning or a fucked up capital budgeting process. Or just plain management stupidity. Especially in a situation where a company is struggling on their core business and it still has such a high amount of cash.

Basically... why on earth aren't they spending all this money? It's just bad business.

But yeah Nintendo isn't going anywhere, but if the NX fails then their dedicated games hardware certainly is, or at the very least it's going to be going in a very very different direction to whater the NX is and their previous machines.



Stefan.De.Machtige said:
Pemalite said:

Sadly Nintendo has been attacking Youtubers who make video's of Nintendo's hardware and games, so that diminishes the fanbase/free advertising on that front.

Some of these "Fan Games" are also really really really good, Like Pokemon Uranium and Another Metroid 2 Remake.. Nintendo should really have hired these guys and released the games officially instead of just canning them outright, such a missed opportunity and bad publicity for Nintendo.

Then they closed down the Super Mario Bros X, The Legend of Zelda: The Hero of Time Movie, The Legend of Zelda Ocarina of Time 2D and dozens of other fan-based non-profit projects.
I get that Nintendo should Protect it's I.P. But they seriously over do it and that impacts the community in my opinion, especially considering that other companies will often support such efforts.

If find it difficult to say if those shutdowns have any effect. Sure, they can push great fan service, but on the other hand it also deludes the Brand/Range by having these versions. Someone with a free Pokemon Uranium might not buy the new version at all.

Hence the alternative that I laid out instead of Nintendo shutting them down and gaining bad reputation.
I know Nintendo copped allot of vitriol on various social media outlets beause of it... Nintendo could do with positivity.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

kowenicki said:
NewGuy said:
Nice to know that Pachter has access to Nintendo's books!

He does. We all do. They are published every 3 months.

Having access to 10K or 10Q is not the same as having access to the books.



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i agree with you mr pachter



mountaindewslave said:
shikamaru317 said:
Nintendo will be fine if NX flops, but I doubt they'll try again honestly, they could end up going 3rd party if NX flops.

why though? If you have a failed system where you lose only like 5% of your company value (most likely, because even if the NX 'flopped' its not as if it would mean Nintendo wouldn't sell a decent amount of them to break even), why the sudden rush to go third party?

I mean just as an example look how long it took Sega. Sega was losing money and in debt for a few YEARS before they even decided to do that. Nintendo on the other hand, even if the NX did poorly, would be still way in the positive


people like to paint it black and white but its just not. Nintendo has too much clout with their IPs to feel pressured to go third party simply due to a few misteps.

Also bear in mind that a lot of Nintendo stock is owned by the the founding family of Nintendo and I am not entirely sure the board would even go for it

Nintendo is a publicly traded company. They're not in the business of breaking even, they're not even in the business of losing "only like 5%". They're in the business of making as much money as possible. Period. They're not going to put out money loser after money loser after money loser until they don't have a dime left and then decide "welp! Guess we're gonna have to stop making consoles!". That's not how that works.

Every dollar they spend is to make as many dollars as possible come back in it's place. So, it's not about whether or not the NX can make a little money, or break even. It's about Nintendo investing in the most probitable endeavours possible. You see Nintendo diversifying - getting into mobile games, and apps, and theme parks, and seeing what works. They're investiating other revenue streams. If at any point  where they as a company feel it will be more profitable to stop making hardware and invest more in those other revenue streams instead , and just make games for mobile, and other consoles, then that is what they will do.

The only reason they're making the NX is because they feel the NX will bring a bigger return on investment that any other potential investment at this time. They will not keep making consoles if they feel they can get bigger returns on investment elsewhere. Those are the facts. It's almost completely irrelevant how much money Nitendo has in the bank, and people fail to understand that.



They still can flop some consoles before really having troubles and I mean flopping them in sequence. Anyway, I think NX is not at risk of doing Wii U numbers since it's also a portable device, so even a massively disappointing performance would be something like 40 to 50M. The only way I can see it doing less than that is if Nintendo really have a absurdly stupid idea in mind.

I'm quite optimistic about its performance being quite decent. Being late to the gen will probably drive the numbers down a bit, but things like Scorpio and PS4K are indicators that this gen will be long, more akin to gen 7, so Nintendo still have some good years ahead.



Pemalite said:
Stefan.De.Machtige said:

They need a minumum of two things to regain or even better retain their hardware market:

  • 40/50 million NX sales (with profit)
  • An enthousiastic, though a bit small fanbase who like talking about Nintendo products

If they fail in either these things, they might have one go left. But if that also fails, then Nintendo will be default 3rd party in some sort.

Sadly Nintendo has been attacking Youtubers who make video's of Nintendo's hardware and games, so that diminishes the fanbase/free advertising on that front.

Some of these "Fan Games" are also really really really good, Like Pokemon Uranium and Another Metroid 2 Remake.. Nintendo should really have hired these guys and released the games officially instead of just canning them outright, such a missed opportunity and bad publicity for Nintendo.

Then they closed down the Super Mario Bros X, The Legend of Zelda: The Hero of Time Movie, The Legend of Zelda Ocarina of Time 2D and dozens of other fan-based non-profit projects.
I get that Nintendo should Protect it's I.P. But they seriously over do it and that impacts the community in my opinion, especially considering that other companies will often support such efforts.


There is absolutely no way Nintendo could ever release any of these games officially. Ever.

It simply doesn't work like that. Fan projects are never made to the same checks and balances as actual legitmate video games are. That's fine and dandy on PC, but consoles are different. You're talking a huge undertaking just to QA and certify the game, and if any bugs are found, the only people that can realistically fix it are the people that made the games originally, which means they have Nintendo over a barrel. Aside from that, the code base could be a complete mess, and the game could just barely be functioning. What do you do with a game that appears to be far more stable than it actually is? Remember, if Nintendo releases it, Nintendo has to support it.

It's a gigantic mess. You will never ever see it happen. The best you might see is some of the developers being hired by Nintendo to work on Nintendo's own projects, but that's it.



kowenicki said:
NewGuy said:

Having access to 10K or 10Q is not the same as having access to the books.

So you think Ninty are hiding something in their books? They aren't disclosing properly?

I am certain you have heard of creative accounting.