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Forums - Sales Discussion - PAL Charts week 13 (2008) Gt5 prologue begin

kamil said:
@BKK: Fifa 07 is a typo right? Should be Fifa 08?
Also it was second week for Fifa 08 when Halo 3 sold 98k for the first week it can be calculated (from chart track news and the fact that Halo 3 sold 465k first week) that Fifa 08 for PS2 sold around 174k for its first week.

BTW:
Halo 3 sold around 465k and it was 68% of X360 software sales for this week. But we also know that Fifa 08 and Halo 3 contributed 83% of X360 sales for that week so Fifa alone contributed 15% (from chart track news when Halo 3/Fifa were released). Thus we can calculate Fifa 08 debut (for 360):
Fifa 08 first week = (15%/68%) * 465k = 102.6k
There is of course margin of error so we can't be sure if Fifa really broke 100k or not but we can assume it was around 100k.
But Fifa 08 (X360) had worse debut than Geors of Wars, Assasin's Creed and Vegas 2. So this would put those games above 100k for first week.

Where did you get info that AC sold worse than Gateway which sold below 100k?

Ah, yes, I was looking at second week for FIFA 08, not first, and yes, that was a typo.

So we have:

Games Debuting to over 100k sales first week in UK (Incomplete):


WWF SMACKDOWN 2 PSX (January 01 2001) [100k-200k]
METAL GEAR SOLID 2 PS2 (March 2002) [100k-200k]
GRAND THEFT AUTO: VICE CITY PS2 (October 27 2002) [200k-300k]
THE GETAWAY PS2 (December 2002) [Fastest selling new IP on an individual format]
CHAMPIONSHIP MANAGER 4 PC (March 2003) [100k-200k]
FIFA 2004 PS2 (October 2003) [100k-200k]
PRO EVOLUTION SOCCER 4 PS2 (October 2004) [100k-200k]
GRAND THEFT AUTO: SAN ANDREAS PS2 (October 29 2004) [~660k]
HALO 2 XBOX (November 11 2004) [200k-300k]
GRAN TURISMO 4 PS2 (March 09 2005) [200k-300k]
FIFA 06 PS2 (September 30 2005) [100k-200k]
PRO EVOLUTION SOCCER 5 PS2 (October 21 2005) [200k-300k]
FIFA 08 PS2 (September 29 2006) [100k-200k]
PRO EVOLUTION SOCCER 6 PS2 (october 27 2006) [100k-200k]
GEARS OF WAR 360 (November 2006) [Fifth fastest selling 360 game ever)
WORLD OF WARCRAFT: The Burning Crusade PC (January 2007) [Second fastest PC game ever]]
HALO 3 360 (September 29 2007) [~465k]
FIFA 08 PS2 (October 2007) [~174K]
FIFA 08 360 (October 2007) [~103K, sixth fastest selling 360 game ever]
ASSASSIN'S CREED 360 (November 2007) [Third fastest 360 week ever]
CALL OF DUTY 4: Modern Warfare 360 (November 2007) [11th biggest first week ever, second fastest 360)
RAINBOW SIX: Vegas 2 (March 2008) [Fourth fastest selling 360 game ever]
GRAN TURISMO 5: Prologue PS3 (March 2008) [19th biggest first week ever, fastest PS3]

So with FIFA 08 360 over 100k first week we can put several other 360 games over 100k too, including Assassin's Creed.

‘Assassin’s Creed’ was released on both Xbox 360 and PS3 with Microsoft’s format claiming 67% of sales and becoming the second fastest selling new IP on an individual format behind ‘The Getaway’ on PS2 (launched December 2002), as well as the 3rd fastest selling Xbox 360 game within a weekly sales period, behind ‘Halo 3’ and ‘COD 4’.

Link

This led me to believe that The Getaway was below 100k first week as it's not included on the fastest selling chart, even though it released in 2002 when other games from that year are included. If AC sold more than Fifa 08 360 then it should be on the list, but so should The Getaway.

Anyway, now we've already found over 18 games debuting to over 100k in sales, so we know GT5:P should be over 100k also. I shall keep this list as Chart-Track often say when a game is one of the fastest selling first week we can know in future roughly how much a new game sold first week.

 



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well since the UK is about 25% of the PS3's user base in others and GTPro sold about 100k k there I think 350-500k is the ballpark we are looking at for this week, with another 250k next week.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Well, we don't know how much over 100k it sold, so maybe the low end of 350k is a conservative estimate. SCEE said 22% of holiday PS3 hardware sales were in the UK, so I'd guess 500k would be in the ballpark. Also, the Chart-Track data doesn't include GT5:P bundles either.



Well I remember some one mentioned that Sony made a last minute hefty cut on the GT5:P shipment.

I wonder how it will turn out.



Nintendo & Sony supporter:

 Consoles: Wii & PS3.

bigjon said:
well since the UK is about 25% of the PS3's user base in others and GTPro sold about 100k k there I think 350-500k is the ballpark we are looking at for this week, with another 250k next week.

No I dont agree, the game will sell 800k at the lowest in OTHERS.

PS3 should be anywhere from 140-220k in sales in OTHERS when the numbers are in (today If the schedule has not been changed to tomorrow).



 

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I think 400-550K first week for GT5:P.



my gosh, these predictions are insane. the game came out on a friday! expect no more than 500k, at most!




@DOATS: Most of the games released in Europe are released on friday and some of them make really good numbers. I think that we are going to see second best debut for this generation games in Others (after Halo 3). It won't be 800k as leoj says but it can crack 500k.



For future reference I'll put current gen 1st week Chart-Track sales in order:

360:

1: Halo 3 ~465k
2: Call of Duty 4
3: Assassin's Creed
4: Rainbow Six: Vegas 2
5: Gears of War
6: FIFA 08 ~ 103k

PS3:

1: Gran Turismo 5: Prologue 100k+
2: Resistance: Fall of Man
*: FIFA 08 ~79k

WII:

1: Super Mario Galaxy
2: Legend of Zelda ~70k



Refined totals as Chart-Track used to be a bit more free with the numbers:

01:GRAND THEFT AUTO: SAN ANDREAS PS2 (October 29 2004) [~677k]
02:HALO 3 360 (September 2007) [~465k]
03:HALO 2 XBOX (November 11 2004) [~260k]
04:GRAND THEFT AUTO: VICE CITY PS2 (October 27 2002) [250k-260k]
05:GRAN TURISMO 4 PS2 (March 09 2005) [250k-260k]
06:PRO EVOLUTION SOCCER 5 PS2 (October 21 2005) [200k-250k]
**:PRO EVOLUTION SOCCER 6 PS2 (october 27 2006) [186k-236k]
08:MARIO KART WII (April 2008) [174k-250k]
**:FIFA 08 PS2 (October 2007) [~174K]
**:FIFA 07 PS2 (September 29 2006) [125k-130k]
**:FIFA 06 PS2 (September 30 2005) [120k-125k]
12:CALL OF DUTY 4: Modern Warfare 360 [125k-200k]
**:THE GETAWAY PS2 (December 2002) [125k-200k]
**:PRO EVOLUTION SOCCER 4 PS2 (October 2004) [125k-200k]
**:CHAMPIONSHIP MANAGER 4 PC (March 2003) [~125k]
**:METAL GEAR SOLID 2 PS2 (March 2002) [~125k]
**:WORLD OF WARCRAFT: The Burning Crusade PC [~124k]
**:WWF SMACKDOWN 2 PSX (January 01 2001) [100k-200k]
**:FIFA 2004 PS2 (October 2003) [100k-125k]
20:GRAN TURISMO 5: Prologue PS3 (March 2008) [108k+]
**:ASSASSIN'S CREED 360 [103k+]
**:RAINBOW SIX: Vegas 2 (March 2008) [103k-149k]
**:GEARS OF WAR 360 (November 2006) [103k-200k]
**:FIFA 08 360 (October 2007) [~103K]