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Forums - Sales Discussion - May 2016 NPD Thread! Hardware and software numbers up!

Ryng on 10 June 2016
Aquamarine said:

Think about it this way for Overwatch:

Overwatch sold 50-100K PC retail sales. That's HUGE for PC retail nowadays.

Since PC retail is such a small fraction of the overall PC market (less than 10%), you can project that for a title to achieve a whopping 50-100K at PC retail, it must have HUGE digital sales (at least >700K on PC digital in the USA).

Isn't 700K still very low? I think 1 million seem right.



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Aquamarine on 10 June 2016
Ryng_Tolu said:
Aquamarine said:

Think about it this way for Overwatch:

Overwatch sold 50-100K PC retail sales. That's HUGE for PC retail nowadays.

Since PC retail is such a small fraction of the overall PC market (less than 10%), you can project that for a title to achieve a whopping 50-100K at PC retail, it must have HUGE digital sales (at least >700K on PC digital in the USA).

Isn't 700K still very low? I think 1 million seem right.

Yes, 700K is just a bare-minimum baseline given 50-100K in PC retail.

1 million is another projection that's less conservative but still equally valid.

 

So in that case:

Overwatch:

361K console physical

120K console digital (assuming 33% digital console share)

50-100K PC physical

700-1000K PC digital

=

1.2 million - 1.58 million first month in the USA

 

Something like that.



princevenom on 10 June 2016
iTzCharlie said:
The best selling Uncharted game did in 20 days almost the same the worst selling Halo game did in a week, considering also the 2x instal base. Halo 5 it's considered a flop, Uncharted 4 a success. Now hate on me I don't care, but watching the same people who say the halo franchise died, saying that Uncharted 4 is a great success (I think both are) is ridiculous.

halo 3 sold 3.3 m on its first on its first week i think with much smaller install base 

halo used to be a monster franchise  halo 5 sales  are very bad compared to other halo games 



Teeqoz on 10 June 2016
Aquamarine said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Isn't 700K still very low? I think 1 million seem right.

Yes, 700K is just a bare-minimum baseline given 50-100K in PC retail.

1 million is another projection that's less conservative but still equally valid.

 

So in that case:

Overwatch:

361K console physical

90K console digital (assuming 25% digital console share)

50-100K PC physical

700-1000K PC digital

=

1.2 million - 1.55 million first month in the USA

 

Something like that.

Wouldn't it be fair to assume that Overwatch's console digital ratio would also be over the average? Considering it sold more on PSN than Doom, despite Doom selling more physically (well, I think. we don't have precise splits so technically PS4 Overwatch could be above PS4 Doom, unless you can say anything about this).



princevenom on 10 June 2016
Aquamarine said:

Think about it this way for Overwatch:

Overwatch sold 50-100K PC retail sales. That's HUGE for PC retail nowadays.

Since PC retail is such a small fraction of the overall PC market (less than 10%), you can project that for a title to achieve a whopping 50-100K at PC retail, it must have HUGE digital sales (at least >700K on PC digital in the USA).

 

Intrinsic said:

Only if we can have digital sales tracking. I'm beginning to feel digital sales are now a lot more than what we all expect, especially with things like preloading in effect. All 6 of my friends and I got the game digitally (we actually get all our games digitally cause we are based in the carribeans).

Just think of it, it sold 2.7M first week, did 800k for the month in NA, even if it does 1.2M eveeywhere else thats still around 500k-700k digital sales. Thats aroumd 30%!!!!

30% sounds about right for Uncharted 4 digital share. So when you include digital Uncharted 4 is approx. 1.17 million for May USA sales.

Remember, digital keeps slowly creeping upwards. In 2014 digital downloads were 15-20% of total sales. In 2015 it was 20-25%. Now in 2016 it's 25-30%.

thanks for the numbers Aqua i realy Appreciate your work 



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Ryng on 10 June 2016

 

Aquamarine said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Isn't 700K still very low? I think 1 million seem right.

Yes, 700K is just a bare-minimum baseline given 50-100K in PC retail.

1 million is another projection that's less conservative but still equally valid.

 

So in that case:

Overwatch:

361K console physical

90K console digital (assuming 25% digital console share)

50-100K PC physical

700-1000K PC digital

=

1.2 million - 1.55 million first month in the USA

 

Something like that.

I believe OverWatch on console should be way bigger than 25%. All times Sony and Microsoft promuoved this game digitally.



JRPGfan on 10 June 2016

We already have numbers? Aquamarine is a goddess!

PS4 over 200k... woaaah.. that year over year growth.
Wii U around 25k in one of its strongest markets... O_o



Dr.Vita on 10 June 2016

Noooo Uncharted 4 < 1M...... But it still did awesome!!!
Wii U is starting to die.




Dr.Vita talks about Playstation Vita in 2016!
Playstation Vita Media Create Sales (2014 vs 2015 vs 2016)
Playstation Vita Japan Retail Software Sales (2013 vs 2014 vs 2015 + 2015 LTD Edition)
Prediction: Nothing will outsell PSP anymore (except Playstation home consoles)

Aquamarine on 10 June 2016

Teeqoz said:

 Wouldn't it be fair to assume that Overwatch's console digital ratio would also be over the average? Considering it sold more on PSN than Doom, despite Doom selling more physically (well, I think. we don't have precise splits so technically PS4 Overwatch could be above PS4 Doom, unless you can say anything about this).

 

Ryng_Tolu said:

I believe OverWatch on console should be way bigger than 25%. All times Sony and Microsoft promuoved this game digitally.

Console audiences are very different than PC audiences...many still highly value physical copies.

Overwatch is a distinctly PC-oriented game that caters heavily to everything PC , so I don't think there is an abnormally high digital percentage here.

But I did miscalculate...what I meant to say was that I believe 25% of the *combined* demand was digital (or 120K was digital), which would give Overwatch a 33% digital share relative to physical sales. 33% is what I meant to convey in the beginning.

 

Overwatch would be 33% digital (or 120K digital) and Doom would be a lower percentage than normal (and with it being more of an Xbox-oriented title), therefore when you do the math Overwatch PS4 digital would sell more. I might give SKU splits later on.

But that's my opinion mixed with a few things I heard from people I know. It's not necessarily the correct one.



Dr.Vita on 10 June 2016

Don't hate me guys but is Aquamarine the person who is responsible to the NPD numbers we have?




Dr.Vita talks about Playstation Vita in 2016!
Playstation Vita Media Create Sales (2014 vs 2015 vs 2016)
Playstation Vita Japan Retail Software Sales (2013 vs 2014 vs 2015 + 2015 LTD Edition)
Prediction: Nothing will outsell PSP anymore (except Playstation home consoles)