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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Neo will outsell X1 (all models) LTD by end of gen? Also : Stategy

 

Will the Neo alone outsell X1?

Yes 79 54.48%
 
No 34 23.45%
 
Maybe 17 11.72%
 
Waffles 15 10.34%
 
Total:145
vivster said:
Not that we'd ever know its sales.

GIMME MAUs! lol



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If Neo is just a PS4 Slim of sorts, then I agree with you.If the PS4 is what is rumored to be, a more powerful PS4, then it has no chance of outselling XOne.And I mean, it would be a dumb move by Sony to just simply phase out the older model, which would be, by the time Neo releases, the cheaper model costing around 300 dollars, just to try to promote a a system that is much more expensive(Im thinking around 400), and that would essencially do the same thing as the older PS4 model.They would literally shoot themselves in the foot, and give a chance for Nintendo and Microsoft to regain some ground.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

zorg1000 said:
Bandorr said:
JUST the Neo outselling all versions of xbox 1?

Seems unlikely. First off the neo would have to sell at least 20 million or so. Then it would have to sell at least 1 neo for every xbox one.

All while competing with the ps4?

I'm going to go from "unlikely" to "quite unlikely".

Its very possible that Neo will eventually become the standard sku and the original PS4 will be phased out which has happened basically everytime a console/handheld has had a revision.

Neo is a very different situation though.The Ps4 slims and XBox 360 slims were basically just the same model but with cheaper components, or even some components taken out to cheapen it.The same could be said to the handhelds.And even when the new model were stronger or had new features, the older model were kept available through its lifetime.Just look at 3DS and DS for clear examples.

Neo would fall in the same situation as the handheld itinerations.I dont think Sony will phase out the older models, which are the cheaper ones, and make people buy the expensive ones.That is a recipe for PR disaster, and that could come back and bite them in the ass.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

small44 said:
I wonder if neo is going to sell a lot more than PSPGO.

That's a given.

The problem of the PSP Go was that it was taking something away: without UMD you didn't have the option for a retail version, buy or sell used games and some titles weren't even available digitally.

What features will the Neo take away compared to the "normal" PS4? Probably nothing.



Nautilus said:
zorg1000 said:

Its very possible that Neo will eventually become the standard sku and the original PS4 will be phased out which has happened basically everytime a console/handheld has had a revision.

Neo is a very different situation though.The Ps4 slims and XBox 360 slims were basically just the same model but with cheaper components, or even some components taken out to cheapen it.The same could be said to the handhelds.And even when the new model were stronger or had new features, the older model were kept available through its lifetime.Just look at 3DS and DS for clear examples.

Neo would fall in the same situation as the handheld itinerations.I dont think Sony will phase out the older models, which are the cheaper ones, and make people buy the expensive ones.That is a recipe for PR disaster, and that could come back and bite them in the ass.

There are so many ways Sony can go with the Neo... A wafer can only make so many chips. Going more powerful with the Neo doesmt actually mean the chip cost them more to make. or even that the console is going to be more expensive. Read (has to be more expensive). no doubt Sony will charge a premium for the Neo at first, but expect that to quickly come down. 

I see Sony most likely selling the Neo at $399. then come around the holiday when you probably won't see a single core PS4 anywhere, they will drop the Neo to $349 taking the current price of the PS4 and at the same time seeming like a price drop. 

I don't really see Sony supporting the core and Neo ps4 for the rest of the generation. or even for a year. 



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Intrinsic said:
Nautilus said:

Neo is a very different situation though.The Ps4 slims and XBox 360 slims were basically just the same model but with cheaper components, or even some components taken out to cheapen it.The same could be said to the handhelds.And even when the new model were stronger or had new features, the older model were kept available through its lifetime.Just look at 3DS and DS for clear examples.

Neo would fall in the same situation as the handheld itinerations.I dont think Sony will phase out the older models, which are the cheaper ones, and make people buy the expensive ones.That is a recipe for PR disaster, and that could come back and bite them in the ass.

There are so many ways Sony can go with the Neo... A wafer can only make so many chips. Going more powerful with the Neo doesmt actually mean the chip cost them more to make. or even that the console is going to be more expensive. Read (has to be more expensive). no doubt Sony will charge a premium for the Neo at first, but expect that to quickly come down. 

I see Sony most likely selling the Neo at $399. then come around the holiday when you probably won't see a single core PS4 anywhere, they will drop the Neo to $349 taking the current price of the PS4 and at the same time seeming like a price drop. 

I don't really see Sony supporting the core and Neo ps4 for the rest of the generation. or even for a year. 

Thats still a 100 dollars price difference(Taking reference here from the lowest official price that the PS4 had, that was last Black Friday).I mean, I agree with you that there is a chance that the basic model wont be shipped until the end of the generation, but only one year?No chance.Specially since that could implicate other problems, such as lower dedication on optimizing the basic model for any game version, since that version would be less used since, well, the basic PS4 model wouldnt sell at game stores anymore.

But we still need official confirmation on the Neo.And by that I mean if it is just a slim version or a beefed up PS4.That could make all the difference in this disscussion.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nautilus said:
zorg1000 said:

Its very possible that Neo will eventually become the standard sku and the original PS4 will be phased out which has happened basically everytime a console/handheld has had a revision.

Neo is a very different situation though.The Ps4 slims and XBox 360 slims were basically just the same model but with cheaper components, or even some components taken out to cheapen it.The same could be said to the handhelds.And even when the new model were stronger or had new features, the older model were kept available through its lifetime.Just look at 3DS and DS for clear examples.

Neo would fall in the same situation as the handheld itinerations.I dont think Sony will phase out the older models, which are the cheaper ones, and make people buy the expensive ones.That is a recipe for PR disaster, and that could come back and bite them in the ass.

Ok im looking at those

FY ending March 2009, DSi accounted for less than 10% of DS shipments.

FY ending March 2010, DSi accounted for over 60% of DS shipments.

FY ending March 2011, DSi accounted for over 80% of DS shipments.

Here is 3DS

FY ending March 2015, New 3DS accounted for over 30% of shipments.

FY ensing March 2016, New 3DS accounted for over 70% of shipments.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Nautilus said:

Thats still a 100 dollars price difference(Taking reference here from the lowest official price that the PS4 had, that was last Black Friday).I mean, I agree with you that there is a chance that the basic model wont be shipped until the end of the generation, but only one year?No chance.Specially since that could implicate other problems, such as lower dedication on optimizing the basic model for any game version, since that version would be less used since, well, the basic PS4 model wouldnt sell at game stores anymore.

But we still need official confirmation on the Neo.And by that I mean if it is just a slim version or a beefed up PS4.That could make all the difference in this disscussion.

Any dev making a game and making a "Neo" mode from when the Neo is available, will not just not focus on the basic model cause it's no longer being sold. That's simply cause even if the Neo sells 10 million units this year, it's still going be nothing compared to the probably 50M base consoles out there.  

But yh. We need more info. 



zorg1000 said:
Nautilus said:

Neo is a very different situation though.The Ps4 slims and XBox 360 slims were basically just the same model but with cheaper components, or even some components taken out to cheapen it.The same could be said to the handhelds.And even when the new model were stronger or had new features, the older model were kept available through its lifetime.Just look at 3DS and DS for clear examples.

Neo would fall in the same situation as the handheld itinerations.I dont think Sony will phase out the older models, which are the cheaper ones, and make people buy the expensive ones.That is a recipe for PR disaster, and that could come back and bite them in the ass.

Ok im looking at those

FY ending March 2009, DSi accounted for less than 10% of DS shipments.

FY ending March 2010, DSi accounted for over 60% of DS shipments.

FY ending March 2011, DSi accounted for over 80% of DS shipments.

Here is 3DS

FY ending March 2015, New 3DS accounted for over 30% of shipments.

FY ensing March 2016, New 3DS accounted for over 70% of shipments.

Well, there are some things that differenciates it.First, all those numbers you are giving are when the systems were already at the end of their lifes and the peak sales have come and gone by.PS4 is in its third year and may yet peak in sales, so having a cheaper(and the normal) model would be benefitial.And second and most important:In those numbers you gave me, none of the latter models overtook 100% of the sipment orders.In other words, there was always the base model available, even if in lower numbers, so I dont really understand how that is comparable with the PS4 base model being replaced in 1 year time like OP sugested.

Actually, your numbers goes to show that having a cheaper model, while having the premium for those people that are more enthusiastic about it, will be more benefitial to Sony,if the DS and 3DS success is anything to go by.Since well, it didnt do any harm at the very least.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Intrinsic said:
Nautilus said:

Thats still a 100 dollars price difference(Taking reference here from the lowest official price that the PS4 had, that was last Black Friday).I mean, I agree with you that there is a chance that the basic model wont be shipped until the end of the generation, but only one year?No chance.Specially since that could implicate other problems, such as lower dedication on optimizing the basic model for any game version, since that version would be less used since, well, the basic PS4 model wouldnt sell at game stores anymore.

But we still need official confirmation on the Neo.And by that I mean if it is just a slim version or a beefed up PS4.That could make all the difference in this disscussion.

Any dev making a game and making a "Neo" mode from when the Neo is available, will not just not focus on the basic model cause it's no longer being sold. That's simply cause even if the Neo sells 10 million units this year, it's still going be nothing compared to the probably 50M base consoles out there.  

But yh. We need more info. 

I said that thinking more in the long term, when the PS4 is 5 or 6 years old.Imagine if Neo did sell more than the normal PS4 version, I just imagine the "dedication" that companies like EA and Ubisoft would put in the basic version and how "beautifully" it would run.... it sends me shivers.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1