It all depends on what's meant by AAA. Do you mean the budget going in to the project? If so, how much does a AAA title cost to make? Is it critical acclaim? If so, how high must the average review score be? Is it sales? If so how much must it sell? It's too hard to combine all of these into one entity. I don't personally feel sales have anything to do with a title's status as AAA. If Mario Galaxy sold 50,000 copies, it doesn't stop it from being Mario Galaxy. I don't think budget should count either, because then there wouldn't be any AAA puzzle games since the budgets on them are increasingly lower. I think it should be strictly critical average. Assign a number, maybe 90% and run with it.

This makes Zack and Wiki and No More Heroes near AAA status. Monster Hunter 3 will never be it, because it's not well recieved critically outside of Japan, and Famitsu is not to be trusted. Fatal Frame wouldn't traditionally be so highly recieved, but with a new director coming off his own near AAA title, I think it's very possible. Unfortunately, I believe Nintendo is going to publish it, so it won't be counting towards this. I believe it will be Capcom, but I don't believe it's anything they've announced yet. I personally can't see any exclusive third party title announced for the Wii that may score over a 90%. The closest thing is probably Boom Blox, but I'm highly doubtful it'll be THAT good.

Do you think it has a chance of selling a million?

 The last one did, and in an RPG craving Wii audience, just like the GC audience, I have no doubt.

 Hey MH is a hell of a lot like Pokemon.  Last I checked this is the first time MH has been on a Nintendo system, so it could tap into that crowd.  

Capcom.

I'm with some other people in this thread who think it will be Square Enix.

This thread looks like it's suffering from how AAA is a stupid term that means something different to everyone who hears it.

Is the criteria good reviews? RE4 has 91 on Metacritic, while at least Zack&Wiki, Guiter Hero 3, and soon Rock Band are over 85. I've seen people call Ratchet and Uncharted on the PS3 AAA, so clearly games under 90 still count.

Big budget? Everyone knows games on the Wii cost a lot less to produce than the other consoles, but nobody seems to be quite sure how much. Ultimately these numbers are extremely hard to find, and are a very poor way to evaluate a game's quality, so I'm going to reject this answer. If you're looking for serious effort by a publisher's best dev teams, then there are several of those already, althought mostly from smaller companies.

High sales? There is already one game at 3M+, one at 2M+, and half a dozen others at 1M+. That's a helluva lot better than what you'd think from the way some people talk, and again a lot of games that sold under 1M on the PS3 get referred to as AAA.

My personal preference is to use AAA as a category for the very best games on a console. Thus, the question would be: "Are there any third party titles amongst the Wii's AAA games?"

I would say no.

While there are many great third party games on the Wii like Zack&Wiki and No More Heroes, they're clearly on a lower tier when compared to some of Nintendo's own first party games. Many of them would probably be AAA on a console with lower standards like the PS3, but don't quite measure up to the trinity of Galaxy/Twilight Princess/Brawl.

Is this a problem? I would say no, but the reason for it is kinda long, I'm going more and more off-topic by the word, and everyone ignores my posts anyway, so I don't feel like explaning. =P

I'm going to go with Capcom. They seem to be the third party that's put out the most effort so far on the Wii.

 Capcom can do whatever they want, but unless the game itself is good, I don't care if the game sells more than M&S, it's still not an AAA game.

 It doesn't matter which one from SE, SE is known to make highbudget game that is actually good. I forseen all FFCC will be the first one out so that is the game I'm betting my money for.

AAA games are games the are overall rated at 90%. Tales, Baten Kaitos, Fatal Frame, and Monster Hunter never had one game that rated that high. It is not based on sales