People really let the last gen cloud their judgement, it was a fluke

You are right; not easy to forecast, and VR could have a big impact.  We will see.

I think Sony is putting themselves in a very interesting position. 

They basically can make a PS4slim and have that retail for $200 with a top loading disc drive that will have the current components of the PS4 inside it albeit built on a 14/16nm process. Then have a PS4k model that takes the same form factor of the current PS4 and sell that for $350/$400 and people will still eat it all up. 

That aside, don't know why you even thought 2016 could be the PS4s peak year. it's peak year will be whatever year it's detailing for $200. 

Sure 2016 will be an amazing year for PS4, but I truly believe it's not gonna be the peak year;  2018 will most probably be when the cheapest PS4 Model could be at $200, the 'PS4K' at $300, and a much cheaper VR with plenty of games.

I Still don't think that there will be a PS4K, too Expensive to make, it make Developers go away, split the User Base, they can do much well with PS4, and PS4 Slim, until the End of the Generation, the PS2, sold Over 60 Millions of Units after PS3's Launch, this means that PS2, nearly out-sold PS3, in the same  years, even after 6 Years of Market.

i don't know what you think the PS4k is. There will be no aplittingnof the market. Devs won't be chased away and/or have to choose one PS4 over the other. It also won't cost Sony more to make per say....

To elaboarte on the cost. Sony has been making a profit from selling the PS4 from the day the console was launched. By the time the PS4 is released it would cost Sony probably no more than $200 to make each PS4. which they sell for around $250/$300. Making the PS4k will cost them no more than $350-$400 to make. which they can sell for $400-$500 and again still make a profit. 

Here's another way to look at it. so let's assume it cost Sony $50 for every single APU in the PS4 today using a 28nm process. it would cost  the same amount of money making a processed that's 4 times as powerful using a 14nm process as long as both chips have an identical wafer footprint.

And it Evolves from the PS4 ?, there is a Development cost of the New PS4, with no Reasons of Existence, your own Statement  say that.

Why Sony, would piss of a Install Base, to come from a 50-100$ Profit, to another 50-100US$ of Profit, spliting the User Base,  wasting Resources,  Time, and People, to Develop a PS4K ?, it need a New Development Kit, a New Balancement of  every single aspect of the Console, you  will not receive Much Result if only the CPU, or Only the GPU, got upgraded, and the 4K Bluray Player, already would make it Expensive enought,  they would make less Profit than with PS4.

Sony, and Microsoft, does not care about the Power of the Console for the Following Reasons.

1 If they are Making money from the Console, and we are already Mid Gen, so there is no reason to make another Console.

2 They only seek Power because of Games, Games bring Gamers, that Became User Base, that Bring Developers, that Bring Games, if all the Games are made for PS4 (that already is more powerful than the Computer of a Lot of people) so there is no use to Upgrade it, they will just move Resources for PS5, and Release it when the time is Right.

3 PS4K, isn't a VR Necessity, for a Console for Sony, to sell at a reasonable price, and make the same profit than the normal PS4, and that would make difference for VR, would cost Much more than just 500US$, they already stated that PSVR, will work with PS5, and Next Sony's Consoles, also, they already made a lot of Showcases in a lot of events with the PS VR, runing on PS4, there is no problem with this, will not be High Tech like Oculus, or Vive, but will Work.

And PS4, is Up YOY, in all the Places of the World, so there is no Reason to release a PS4K, a PS4 Slim, would boost Sales, not a PS4K, with the suggested Price, it would be a Niche Console, and the  first PS4, would not Drop the Price only because of PS4K, if PS4, is to have a Price Drop, is because of either a Slim Version, or because Sony, wants to, making a Ultra Expensive PS4, will not boost Sales.

and people are starting to think that the Console Market, is Like the Phone Market, Phone = Status = Futility, and people purchase Phones every year just to show how Rich they are, but Consoles are = Performance Parity = Games, if Someone have the Same console but run the game better, this would make some people Mad.

Daaaamn Daniel PlayStation. Back at it again with that 3:1 ratio.

That's what I thought. I don't think PSVR would have drove consoles sales.

With January's NPD's Data, we can assume that PS4, out-sold Xbox One, by Twice the ammount in the same Month, so isn't hard to believe that now PS4, sell more, with PSVR, 2 Exclusives coming, Dark Souls, that sell better on Playstation, than Xbox, No Man's Sky's Pre Order, and other things.

The Division, did little to nothing for Xbox One, was a Bad marketing campaing, they made the Bundle too Expensive.