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Forums - Sony - Is hype for the Last Guardian dead?

 

?

Yep, dead 74 40.88%
 
Nope! 107 59.12%
 
Total:181
maxleresistant on 13 March 2016

Completely dead? No
Mainly dead? Yes

I think the sales will speak for itself.



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Skratchy on 13 March 2016

Wow. See? This is the exact mentality that I hate about gamers nowadays. You just give up on a game, that you supposedly loved before?

I don't know about you, but I was A HUGE fan of ICO and Shadow of the Colossus. Why would I suddenly abandon hope on their next game, just because they run into tons of financial and development issues? There are OTHER games to play in the meantime, I don't hold their troubles against them.



Skratchy on 13 March 2016

Ultimately, who cares about hype? I care about quality games. I'm sure most people "hyped" for Last Guardian feel the same. They will want it regardless, and people will want to check it out, regardless, because quality matters over hype.



maxleresistant on 13 March 2016
BraLoD said:
maxleresistant said:
Completely dead? No
Mainly dead? Yes

I think the sales will speak for itself.

What kind of sales are you even expecting?
Between 1.5 and 2M should be a realistic number.

Even though I expect over 2M, closer to 3M, hopefully.

Probably 2 millions tops, But I guess it's a great number for a PS4 first party exclusive. 

Problem is, with what they sunk into the development of this game, they probably need like 5 million to break even. 

I think the game would have sold a lot more if they released it the following fall after the E3 re reveal. Now the game is going to be at E3, again, and people are going to be like : "this game? again?"

Maybe if they have something more to show than the original concept for the game, something that will surprise a little.



MARCUSDJACKSON on 13 March 2016

It's the buy now factor. It may be one of those things where you've waited so long it's like you already own it.



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John19 on 13 March 2016

Nope. It's just that there hasn't been any new gameplay/trailers for it, so people don't have anything to talk about. I know I for one am highly anticipating it, and can't wait for it to come out.



maxleresistant on 13 March 2016
BraLoD said:

Shu already said it didn't cost them too much as you may think it would, the fact is that the game was probably halted most of the time, there was no money being spent on it or a continuous and expensive cycle of production that made it very expensive, they already said it does not have a big budget behind it, nothing close to the likes of Uncharted or God of War for example.

2M should be plenty to push a nice profit over it.

For comparision, during the PS1 era The Legend of Dragoon was a huge project for Sony, it was really expensive compared to other games from them from that generation, over 100 people worked on it for 3 and a half years without a break, the game have sold a bit less than 2M and they still made a profit on it.

And maybe you could have went without sounding like you did with your first line, 2M sales are a good number to basically any first party exclusive new IP that's not top budget like The Last Guardian. It may be high on name, but it doesn't cost nearly close to actual Sony big first party titles, which 2M are ridiculously low numbers, by the way, check Naughty Dog, Santa Monica and Polyphony Digital main titles to tell me if 2M sales is nearly close to be great numbers compared with what they achieve with their games sales.

We're talking about a game with spent 10 years into development. The Team Ico, spent most of that time working on the game, and 1/2 years working on the HD port of IC & Shadow

We're talking an average of 25 people on the payroll for 8 years. You're going to add marketing cost etc to that. 2 millions is barely going to cut it.

And yes, I don't think 2millions is a great number for first party exclusive. I think great is upward 4 millions. Now as you said, it's a new IP. Well yes and no, because the IP here is the Team ICO, but let's say it's a new IP. Then yes 2 millions would have been great, if the game spent 3 years into development, not 8 to 10.



maxleresistant on 13 March 2016
BraLoD said:
maxleresistant said:

We're talking about a game with spent 10 years into development. The Team Ico, spent most of that time working on the game, and 1/2 years working on the HD port of IC & Shadow

We're talking an average of 25 people on the payroll for 8 years. You're going to add marketing cost etc to that. 2 millions is barely going to cut it.

And yes, I don't think 2millions is a great number for first party exclusive. I think great is upward 4 millions. Now as you said, it's a new IP. Well yes and no, because the IP here is the Team ICO, but let's say it's a new IP. Then yes 2 millions would have been great, if the game spent 3 years into development, not 8 to 10.

The thing is that it doesn't cost that much to Sony as you are thinking, for that "10 years in development" it must be around 3 to 4 tops in actual full development, Shuhei Yoshida himself told the game is not very expensive to them, it's still lower than an actual high budget title that takes around 2 or 3 years from beginning of development to release.
It's not a super expensive project just because it was so long to come, most of the time it was halted most likely, as that's already confirmed to not being an expensive title to Sony.

Well I guess the Team Ico had 5 years of vacations then. And unpaid vacations. That's neat.

Try do math. The PS3 version, had at least 3 years of full development. At least. And you can had 2 for the PS4 version. Now as I said, 25 people is an average, Team ICO is more like 50 people when in full development.

So you can count how you want, but the game cost a lot of money, enough so that "good sales for a new IP" will definitely not be enough. 

This is not 2002, the cost of making games has spiked, and a game like that? It's not cheap to make.



maxleresistant on 13 March 2016
BraLoD said:
maxleresistant said:

Well I guess the Team Ico had 5 years of vacations then. And unpaid vacations. That's neat.

Try do math. The PS3 version, had at least 3 years of full development. At least. And you can had 2 for the PS4 version. Now as I said, 25 people is an average, Team ICO is more like 50 people when in full development.

So you can count how you want, but the game cost a lot of money, enough so that "good sales for a new IP" will definitely not be enough. 

This is not 2002, the cost of making games has spiked, and a game like that? It's not cheap to make.

http://segmentnext.com/2015/06/26/the-last-guardian-is-a-small-team-low-budget-game-lower-than-horizon/

Shu is saying himself The Last Guardian "it's not expensive at all", that a new IP like Horizon is "a much bigger budget than TLG".

He says it's not "so small", that it's "much bigger than ICO and SotC" but that is still "not in an US or EU budget style (level)"

There is no other way to look at it, no matter how much time it's from the announcement or the beginning of development, in the end the game has a really small team working not all that time behind it, and it doesn't cost nowhere near a new IP from a big studio of themselves.

 

Do you even think for yourself? Try to analyze a situation , don't just regurgitate Sony's PR. Do you think they'll say that they sunk a lot of money into the game and need to sell 4+millions for it to be a success? 

You do know that these kind of declarations are here to reassurate the consumers and shareholders? Of course TLG is "low budget" if your scale goes from "Big budget" to GTA V budget. But that doesn't change that the game had a cost. And that cost, will not be met with only 1 million units sold.

When I say the game will break even at 2 millions, I'm low-balling it. 



maxleresistant on 13 March 2016
BraLoD said:

Don't go that way again. I'm letting it pass this time, but won't next time.

I'm presenting you what has been reported by Sony itself, if you believe it or not it's not my problem, but keep your shit down when talking about me.

Well, then try to tell me, do you really think a game that had a 10 years development, even not being in full production for a few years, is a low budget title?

You saw TLG, does it look like a low budget title?

Even if the game had been released on time on the PS3, I wouldn't have believe that this was a low-budget title. But now? Not a chance.