It all comes down to install base. If the NX ends up with anything close to a Wii U-like launch then all of this third party support will evaporate faster then you can say "Nintendo lock-out chip." It doesn't matter what kind of promises and commitments the NX has from 3rd parties at this point: of course third parties don't want to rule out the NX and there may even be handshakes and smiles for now. That said, if those same third parties start to smell a skunk when it comes to the NX's install base, they will slash their NX support even faster then they did with the Wii U.
I truly believe that the NX needs to establish itself as a success first and third parties will follow. Nintendo needs a decent piece of hardware with the NX and then follow up with at least one absolutely killer app that completely sells the hardware at launch. If you think about it, close to every time Nintendo has been successful they have done this:
- NES was complimented perfectly by the killer app: Super Mario Bros
- Gameboy was complimented perfectly by the killer app: Tetris (and it got a second life with Pokémon)
- Nintendo 64's goofy controller was perfectly sold by the killer app: Mario 64
- Nintendo DS was perfectly complimented by: Brain Age and Nintendogs
- Wii was perfectly complimented by: Wii Sports
- Wii U could have been perfectly complimented by Super Mario Maker but it came out too late and Nintendo botched it.
Nintendo has been most successful when they have followed the above formula. True, the SNES and 3DS are exceptions to the rule but this was mainly because they were riding on to coat-tails of a previous success. Nintendo has no coat-tails to ride on with the NX: the NX needs to re-establish a market which means Nintendo's only path to success is to follow the formula I have listed above. Nintendo having a killer app for the NX's "new concept" at launch is 10x more important then securing 3rd party support that could evaporate on a moment's notice. Third parties will only return when the NX has proven itself to be a safe ship to sail on.











