a) wii's big guns that we know about: smash, kart, fit...those will each sell more than any of the hd games on any one console (gta4 combined may beat 1-2 of the above wii games)

b) we don't even have wii's 2nd half lineup yet, but it should have other huge 5+mil sellers on it

c) wii has a much larger install base than either of the other 2 consoles, and should be hovering around the 50% market share range by the end of the year

d) so far this year:
30,825,382 wii software sold so far this year (not bundled wii sports)
24,395,129 360 software sold so far this year
12,725,724 ps3 software sold so far this year

so 360 is 6.5mil behind wii and ps3 is 18mil behind wii in 11 weeks

that projects out to 30.7mil ahead of 360 and 85mil ahead of ps3 for the wii

so ps3's big games have to do >85mil more than wii's big guns (kart, fit, rest of smash, animal crossing, kirby, other fall titles to be announced) this year to win and 360's have to do >30.7mil more



there is NOTHING based in facts or logic that projects wii to be 3rd place in software sales this year

Wii worldwide, NA will be a battle, I think the Wii will have a record cmas and take 08 at the very end however.

LOL. I read the first post and had a complete "WTF" moment... Then I realized that the OP was talking about software sales.

I still have to go with the Wii. Out of the PS3 and 360, you can flip a coin over which will sell the most software but given the userbase, I have to give the nod to the 360.

If the PS3 doesn't get Gran Turismo this year, I think the 360 will take second place walking away. GT5p and MGS4 should sell well but after that, there isn't much sitting in Sony's camp this holiday season to compete with Gears of War 2. Resistance should move a decent number of units but when stacked up against Gears 2, it has a lot going against it.

360 is projecting 55mil ahead of ps3 for software so far

i don't think ps3's big guns are gonna do that much better than 360's big guns to overcome that

ps3 will be last in software sales again imo

Kzin said:   Others software from Week Ending Jan 5, 2008 - Mar 15, 2008 Software Totals: Console Year Total 7,579,697 - 6,929,737 - 3,701,157 - 3,358,537 - 1,333,058 - 656,044 - Total 23,558,230   Edit: To remove bundled Wii Sports VGChartz Hardware data for the period 05th Jan 2008 to 15th Mar 2008: Console Wii Total Others 1,203,975

Where did you find those numbers? I know you can find NA and Japan yearly numbers by going to NA/Japan then clicking on Yearly, but Others does not have such an option. Did you manually go through each week and add them up? If you did, thanks a bunch.

My predicted Wii sales (approx figures)

End '08: 38M
End '09: 54M
End '10: 67M
End '11: 77M

I expect Nintendo's next machine to launch in 2012, possible late 2011 and Wii to sell a further 3-5M after 2011.

Its only a guess of course, my time machine is not yet perfected ;)

Most likely Wii, followed by PS3, followed by 360.

wii.

Wii, has the biggest userbase, it already has sold the most software so it will be hard to overcome for the HD consoles especially if Wii keeps outselling their hardware every week

2008 will be 360/Wii - 50%/50%