Thunderbird77 said:
JWeinCom said:
"Whatever replaces wii u won't be releasing in the "middle of a generation", it will be the start of the 9 gen and may be a little sooner than usual (if it launches 4 years after wii u). You can't say early adobters of the 8 gen will not want to upgrade. But as I said, they don't have to do so imedeately, many people still won't have upgraded their 7 gen systems."
Splitting hairs here, and that really doesn't address anything I said.. The point is they'll be launching in the middle of the PS4 and XBox One's lifecycle.
"the 7th gen market wasn't 150m between ps3 and 360. when factoring broken consoles and double dippers, it's 130m at most. adding wii buyers and factoring triple dippers gives us around 200-210m. most of those people are potential buyers for whatever nintendo releases and the people who already own an 8 gen system may consider wii u's successor as their 9 gen system after a while."
I don't know why we would factor in tripple dippers, because they're already counted in the PS3 and XBox 360 numbers. But this really doesn't change anything. They're still limited to about one third of about 140 million in a scenario where they take a third of the market. And Nintendo is not likely to get that. People won't consider the NX a next gen console if it is similar to the PS4 and XBox One in all regards as was suggested in the original post I was replying to.
"As for power, what does it matter if "it has been two years"? it will be a minimum of 3 years when the console launches and the tech inside ps4 and x1 wasn't even new in 2013. It's totally possible and probable to have a significant upgrade over those two without a much higher bill of materials."
Really? This is really basic stuff. The difference between two and seven years in technology is absolutely enormous in terms of price and power. It is neither probable to have a significant upgrade over the other two consoles in two years without being much higher in price, especially when you consider that those consoles have already dropped 50 bucks and will likely drop another 50 by the time NX is out. It is only possible if Nintendo takes a huge loss on each console.
Bottom line is, you're not going to make a significantly more powerful console without a significantly higher cost. The more powerful chips are not going to somehow get cheaper than the less powerful one in two years.
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The generation started in 2012. minimum of for years later isn't in the middle. again with the 2 year thing? it will be 3 years minimum and bear in mind that ps360 used top hardwrae for their time while ps4 and x1 don't. the power gap tends to get even smaller in the future for all consoles.
Of course the cost will be significantly higher but sony and MS are selling their consoles at high profit margins, if nintendo breaks even or take a small loss at launch, they can get more powerfull hardware retailing for similar prices. there's also the advantage of nintendo probably going with less hdd and better manufacturing deals to lower the costs.
Since this conversation isn't going anywhere, I'll stop here. Let's see how thing go.
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I'll repeat what I said. "Splitting hairs here, and that really doesn't address anything I said.. The point is they'll be launching in the middle of the PS4 and XBox One's lifecycle. "
It does not matter at what point in a generation the NX is launching. Generation is a meaningless marketing buzzword as it is used in gaming. What matters is where it is launching in relation to its competitors. And, if we assume the lifespan of the PS4 and XBox one will be similar to the 7-8 year lifespans of their predecessors, then that's basically in the dead middle.
When the Wii U launched is irrelevant. The NX is not in any real sense competing with the Wii U. Picking 2012 is picking a pretty arbitrary and meaningless starting point.
I said 2 years cause your question to me was "what does it matter if it's only been two years"? I answered the question you asked, not the one it didn't. If it makes you happy, change 2 to 3. That will only slightly change the economics.
You seem to be making up random stuff about Sony and Microsoft selling their consoles at a profit (unless there is a source you have). We know the console was not profitable at launch (ps4), we know it became profitable in about half a year, and then the price was dropped. We have no knowledge that I'm aware of regarding how profitable the system is. What we do know is that Nintendo, as a company that relies solely on game sales without other major divisions to prop them up, tries to sell hardware at a profit, or with as small of a loss as possible. It's unlikely they'll want to take a big loss.
There's no reason to suspect the NX would have a smaller HDD, if we assume it's going to be a similar console, and if this was the case. If the console is similar to PS4 and XBone, then that would be a major disadvantage that would make the console less appealing.
Better manufacturing costs is a completely wild assertion. I don't know why on earth we should assume that Nintendo is going to get better manufacturing deals than their rivals, who happen to manufacture way more electronics than they do.
