Kai_Mao said:
I didn't necessarily say it like that, unless you were referring to what others have said. I said the reason why Sega left the competition was because they were bleeding money and they could no longer support the Dreamcast or any future console long-term. Nintendo could possibly fare better than Sega as a third-party. But as you mentioned, fluctuating revenue would be a problem, especially if consumers are already fed up with too many Marios, Zeldas, and Pokemon at this point.
It's an interesting debate.
Btw, I apologize, again, for everyone who had to endure a long post. Just a lot of thoughts in my head regarding this topic.
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My comment about SEGA was more of a general response to something that's been said many times whenever this topic has come up.
My biggest question regarding the consequences of Nintendo going third-party would be, what happens to the Nintendo faithful?
Right now, Nintendo has millions of fans who are basically a captive audience. They identify strongly with the company. Some of them have little exposure to other markets. Some of them are "super-fans" who buy pretty much everything Nintendo produces, including toys. What happens when this consumer group is suddenly out of the pond and into the ocean? Will their interests become diluted with other games, genres, and experiences that weren't on the most recent Nintendo consoles? Maybe they don't buy every Nintendo title like they used to, maybe they develop attachements to other publishers and developers. I don't know.
On the other hand, Nintendo hasn't been doing a good job of creating new customers, which is really the life's blood of gaming. Hardcore fans are great but they won't make up for a lack of growth. Nintendo desperately needs to find a way to expand their fan base. That's something they must accomplish if they want to stay in the console market. I know Amiibo was a direct response to this problem but, so far, it hasn't quite been functioning as Nintendo wants.
Honestly, if I were in charge of Nintendo, I'd keep producing consoles as long as I could see a profit per unit at launch. I'd try to make sure all the browser and mobile games in Japan were on all my consoles and I'd try to keep a hold on the family market in the rest of the world. There is absolutely nothing wrong with being in "third place" in unit sales if you're turning a solid profit.