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Forums - Sales Discussion - What is the Sales Threshold for a Home Console NOT to be a failure?

 

How much must a home console sell to NOT be a failure?

10 million 7 2.37%
 
15 million 10 3.39%
 
20 million 49 16.61%
 
25 million 25 8.47%
 
30 million 55 18.64%
 
35 million 15 5.08%
 
40 million 22 7.46%
 
50 million 40 13.56%
 
80 million 12 4.07%
 
There are too many variab... 60 20.34%
 
Total:295

I would like to poll the gaming community and see what your personal sales criteria are for a console NOT being a failure.  For example, most people here seem to consider the N64 to NOT be a commercial failure whereas the Gamecube was largely considered to be a failure from a sales point of view.  The difference between the N64 and the Gamecube sales were as follows:

(Sales in millions)
Nintendo 64 Gamecube
North America 20.63 12.94
Japan 5.54 4.04
Other 6.75 4.77
Total 32.92 21.74

Do you feel that there is an static minimum number of sales that a console must ship in order to not be regarded as a failure?  If so, where do you feel that this line should be placed:

10 million:

This would place the Dreamcast into the failure category while a system such as the Wii U would not be regarded as a commercial failure.

(Sales in millions)
Dreamcast Wii U (*Q2 2015)
North America 4.64 5.21
Japan   2.66
Other 4.49 2.87
Total 9.13 10.73

 

20 million:

This would place the Wii U (likely to be less than 20 million, lifetime) in the failure category whereas the Gamecube (21.74 million) would not be regarded as a failure.

 

30 million:

This would place the original XBox in the failure category, while the N64 could be regarded as possibly being a success:

(sales in millions) Xbox (OG) Nintendo 64
North America 16 20.63
Japan   5.54
Other 8 6.75
Total 24 32.92

 

40 million:

This would place the Sega Genesis (40-45 million) above the threshold for failure while the N64 (32.92 million) would be a failure.

 

50 million:

This would make the original NES as a possible success while the SNES would be considered a failure:

(sales in millions) SNES NES
North America 23.35 34
Japan 17.16 19.32
Other 8.58 8.56
Total 49.1 61.91

 

Sources:

http://vgsales.wikia.com




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Lower than 20 million. IMO



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It depends on marketshare and sales not just sales. N64 had over 20% marketshare. Gamecube and Xbox did not. Wii U and vita don't.

30-40m and 20%+ marketshare is decent.



Personally I believe failure and success should be divided by profit and loss. Lest we count a war of attrition as a success. In terms of arm chair analysis 30 million makes the perceptual difference in the minds of gamers.



PS3 sold 80+ million copies and lost $3 billion. On the contrary GameCube sold 20+ million and made money. I will call GameCube a success. At the end of the day it's balance sheet that determines success.



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I guess it all depends on whether they make a profit in the long run.. but at the same time, how it does when compared to other systems as well



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30 million consoles and 20% marketshare is a relative success.

Depends on what the expectations for the console are as well, if the previous market leader only sells 30 million, then it's hard to spin that as a success.



I would say its a successful product if it sells past 40million, but a success if it has a net positive result economically, regardless of how many units it sells. Ofcourse there are other factors like how the low sales affect the brand long term.



It's relative, it is a failure relative to the sales of the current competition.



Miguel_Zorro said:

In my opinion, it's not one dimensional.  You have to take into account a few things:

- The total sales

- The relative size of the market

- How established the brand is

- What the expectations for sales were

- Profit/Loss on the console, and spin-off benefits to the company

For example, the market was smaller in 1986 and a bunch of players were new.  So the Sega Master System, which only sold about 12 million at the time, wasn't really considered a failure.  

The first XBox, which sold 24 million as a new brand, wouldn't be considered a failure in the same way that the XBox One would be if it only sold 24 million.

How I feel as well.   If someone entered the console market now and sold 15 million I think we'd all be impressed. Meanwhile we'd all expect more from three established companies/brands.