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Forums - Movies & TV - The Force Awakens Box Office Thread: $1,73B

I find the whole "but, but inflation!!!" arguments pretty ridiculous. Different times back then. There's literally no way Gone with the Wind would do 4b+ if released this year. Things have changed so much over the years, it's not even funny.

Just days after the movie hits the theaters, you find decent copies online either through streaming sites or torrents. And I have heard they're pretty good. If you check number of downloads you get an idea of how much it affects sales. With streaming it's harder to check, but I'm sure numbers are pretty high. Plus plenty of people have learned to wait for the dvd/bluray release. With Netflix and so many on demand services, there are so many different ways to eventually watch the movie.

Back in the day, going to the cinema was one of the few things teenagers used to do. Now so many of them prefer to stay inside and watch whatever they want whenever they feel like it.

Anyway, I enjoyed Avatar and to all the people who keep saying that it was not a "must watch again" kind of movie, all I have to say is that you're wrong (or at least that it doesn't apply to everyone). Almost every person I know told me that it was the only movie they've watched at the cinema 3+ times. I was in Edinburgh when it came out and had to wait a month!!! to watch it in Glasgow, since there was 3d Max there. It was literally sold out for an entire month. The person I went with was watching it for the third time and didn't mind traveling to another city just to watch the movie in a bigger cinema.

Some of you should consider taking you personal feelings aside before making statements about other people and how much *they* enjoyed the movie.



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naruball said:
I find the whole "but, but inflation!!!" arguments pretty ridiculous. Different times back then. There's literally no way Gone with the Wind would do 4b+ if released this year. Things have changed so much over the years, it's not even funny.

Just days after the movie hits the theaters, you find decent copies online either through streaming sites or torrents. And I have heard they're pretty good. If you check number of downloads you get an idea of how much it affects sales. With streaming it's harder to check, but I'm sure numbers are pretty high. Plus plenty of people have learned to wait for the dvd/bluray release. With Netflix and so many on demand services, there are so many different ways to eventually watch the movie.

Ty sir exactly my point, completly different context, the inflation argument just doesnt work.

And the Star Wars insanity continues as the numbers for Wedsnesday are released and the movie actualy made 1M more than it did on Thuesday, so ye this is gona break 1 billion on the USA by the end of its 5th weak if it continues on this path. Its now tracking almost 100 M ahead of Jurassic World, its likely gona be 150M + ahead of it by the end of its second weakend. Worldwide its over 760 M now without even having released on the worlds second largest movie market. 





Insidb said:
Wonktonodi said:
Insidb said:

Movies, like baseball games, used to be a very accesible form of entertainment. The price of each has risen significantly and outpaced the average American wage, making it easier to draw larger crowds for later films. When we adjust for inflation, numbers of tickets sold becomes the single-most important factor. Older films will always have an advantage in that area, until the wage-inflation trend reverses. Until it does, people will defer to other forms of entertainment, goods, or pirating, based upon each of those thing's greater cost effectiveness. You listed some key factors that have affected and hampered the effectiveness of theater showings, and I think those trends are significantly impacted by availability of disposable income. 



Much older movies have plenty of strong disadvantages as well. So I don't buy the disposable income argument. 

Much stronger competition within theaters. Hundreds of millions to tens of millions fewer people to see movies. And billions world wide.

 

Look at the top ten movies in the US adjusted for inflation. No one decade or set of circumstances is overly represented on the list. The first 7 movies, 7 different decades. So the price of movie compared to income doesn't overly favour one time period.

Pre television doesn't overly represent on the chart and in fact there are no movies from the 20s 

Releases don't explain it all either since 4 of the movies were only released once.

 

Expand the list 10 more places 6 decades covered and only two movies before the peak of minimum wages buying power,  though in this case only 2 movies weren't released, though avatar's is a bit of a joke considering it started like two weeks after it lay theaters and made only 10 million if it's 760 million.

 

Another 10 another 7 different decades. Another 7 that were released, though at least two of those releases were less than a million extra.

 

My conclusions from looking at that list is that no one time period is favored. No one set of circumstances less to any movie doing particularly better, other than movies being released making up a larger portion of the top 30 though they make up less than half of the top 100 with only 41 and of those 9 were from 2000 or later.

 

One further thing I've just observed. There are only 3 movies on the list from before 1940. Be that from the totals being unknown or fewer movies doing well I don't know, but considering the birth of a nation was the highest grossing movie before gone with the wind (unadjusted) I think data is missing.

I think the interplay has a significant effect: GWTW benefitted from multiple releases, over several years, and Titanic had a 3D re-release. The summer blockbusters (Star Wars, ET, Avatar, and Jaws) are well represented, but the others were pre-1975 fantasy/drama films that released to about half of today's population. In essence, movies have become more of a margin play today, because you just don't have the same volume of moviegoers. If we did, SWTFA would have already passed GWTW. I personally don't go to the theater often, because tickets seem overpriced to me and my friends, which indicates that there is a sentiment of a disproportion of the ticket cost to income. When I was younger and didn't make much money, tickets were about half to a third of what they are now and not a big deal to buy. This has only served to drive myself and others to spend money where it appears more effectively spent, as well as obtaining the media through other means.



 

On box office mojo, the average price now is double the price of 20 years ago. If you go to 3D Imax compared to the average it might be like that but it's also not hard to go to a matinee. I frequently go for $7.50 these days, or buy tickets at Costco 2 for 16 thought it might have finally gone up after a few years.

 

Yes GWTW benefited hugely from releases, but most movies on the list didn't. And no Star wars wouldn't have passed it already, GWTW was huge when it came out as well, with a huge level of hype from the book. And movies can't do that well on releases without ongoing huge popularity.

 

But we're starting to go in circles. I've made the points I want to make. Inflation is a valid form of comparison no matter what a few forum goers on vgchartz think.



Wonktonodi said:

But we're starting to go in circles. I've made the points I want to make. Inflation is a valid form of comparison no matter what a few forum goers on vgchartz think.

And ppl have unmade most of those points for you, youre stuck on the price of the tickets and how that should make it easier for movies to make money, but youre completly ignoring the context we live in x the context ppl lived in 30+ years ago. You see a movie from 1927 with a suposed adjusted to inflation gross of over a billion and you have to wonder if that movie nowadays would even pass the 100 million let alone get to the suposed 1 billion, with how everything has changed on ppls lives and how movie releases are handled. This is like doing a cientific experiment about a certain plant growth in the desert than wanting to use the statistics of that experiment to determine how the same plant would grow on the Amazon Rain Forest, completly different enviroments/contexts would make for completly different results, I cant aplly the data from one environment to the other, thats not how things work, movies made what they made because they released when they released, you take any movie, even Force Awakens that is beasting on the Box Office and might become the bigest gross ever, and change the context it was in when it released and the results every single time will be different.





Ruler said:
Hey great that it sold so much but yall who are cheering it wont see anything from this money.

Are you wondering why VGChartz's communitee cares about sale numbers?



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SlayerRondo said:
I personally like the Fore Awakens far more than the current top five grossing movies of all time.

It felt like the original three star wars all rolled into one.

Heh, not me.

Man, I feel like an alien. I legitimately feel like I'm the only one that just isn't a Star Wars fan.

Is there anyone else on this site that just isn't in to this whole Star Wars craze?

As a kid, I guess I was kinda strange. My heroes were Bruce Lee and Jean-Claude Van Damme. Movies like Bloodsport, Kickboxer, Way of the Dragon and Enter the Dragon give me all the nostalgia I need. I also really got into the ninja turtles. Michael Jackson was also my idol and will forever be so. He was the first person that just literally made my jaw completely drop. Both in his style and the way he presented himself and his skills as a songwriter.

For some reason, I never got into Star Wars and I didn't pick up on it from anyone I was around either. ALways heard about it just wasn't interested.





Teeqoz said:
LordLichtenstein said:
Do you guys think Avatar 2 has a chance at breaking $3 billion?

 


It has a snowball's chance in hell.

 

Hahahaha, I LOVE THIS!!! Really, it'll just make it so damn incredible if it actually DOES happen. Cameron's sequels do better than the original's. He's a master. He already said it himself he is going all out and wants to prove the original was no fluke.

Once the trailer hits.....BAMMM, everyone will be in! Mark my words. I'm betting all I have on this. :D And I cannot wait any longer. 



LordLichtenstein said:
Teeqoz said:

 

People don't care about Avatar anymore. It had like no staying power with the public. Last Avatar had hype to reach to the moon and back. Not gonna happen.

 

Come on man, keep 'your' own opinion out of it.

 

Exactly!!! I don't get it. Since when does a film need staying power to be successful??? Avatar was HUGE and it was a new franchise. It didn't have all the gimmicks of a Star Wars which is why it is so marketable and fan-crazy. Avatar is just an awesome movie that just so happen to have done really well because it WAS done WELL.

I think the foreign market AND ESPECIALLY CHINA will make Avatar 2 hit $3 billion+

Avatar 2 won't gross as much as the first one domestically. I think it'll look something like this. $400-600 million domestically. $2.4-2.6 billion internationally.

Avatar did $760 million domestically and $2 billion internationally.



Wonktonodi said:
StreaK said:

 

Yeah, but in terms of ticket sales Avatar didn't even come close to the 135 million sold set by Titanic. I think it did like half that lol. Titanic today would have over a billion domestically (without 3D like Avatar had) and I'm even afraid to say how much internationally. This is the most modern film that has accomplished such crazy numbers. You take a look at the top 20 inflation adjusted and well, Titanic is like the only 90's film on there. Many are 70' and 80's and even way before. I don't really consider Avatar topping Titanic...it's just EXTREMELY difficult to crown Avatar when the ticket sales were actually quite low.

Gone with the Wind had NUMEROUS theatrical releases...it was a whole different world back then and cannot be compared to Titanic's time. ALL people had then were movies for entertainment really as far as technology goes. Titanic did monstrous sales in the 90's when there were many other forms of entertainment options. In any case, BOTH were huge for their respective time periods. 

And yeah, you're right...6 years. It was pretty much released in 2010.

estimates I've seen for ticket sales in the US in millions

225 Gone with the wind

194 Star Wars

161 ET

156.4 Sound of Music

130 Ten Commandments

128.4 Titanic

78.3 Avatar hardly low, 24th on the list. While it is 50 million less tickets in the US I'm pretty sure the rest of the world more than makes up for it in the other direction.

Some other things to consider over ages, the population was much lower when some of these movies came out, and there were so many more movies coming out every year than there are now and while Gone with the wind has benefitted from rereleases people kept going back to see it. Not all rereleases do well also Titanic had a pretty huge 3D rerelease itself that added $58 million in the US and another $285Million in the rest of the world.



 

Hmmm, I think you're kinda off on those estimates. Especially with E.T and Star Wars.

I think E.T is closer to like 135-140 million according to boxofficemojo.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=et.htm&adjust_yr=1&p=.htm

And I think Titanic did better than Star Wars internationally. People say it grossed more than Titanic worldwide but I'm not buying it. 



The thing that will keep Star Wars international number a lot less than Avatars will be the difference in currency exchange, in 2009/early 2010 the U.S dollar was a lot weaker than it is now. Even if the currency exchange rate was the same, it still would have made less than Avatar in the international box office, but it would have been much closer than it will be now.



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