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Forums - Gaming - Prediction: Horizon Zero Dawn > Zelda BoTW

TheBlackNaruto said:
abroZ said:

 

According to this website 

Horizon Zero Dawn - 18 days on the market - sold 2,355,000

Breath of the wild - 16 days on the market - sold 2,384,000

These figures don't back your statement...care to elaborate or provide  link or something?

Well we KNOW(http://www.polygon.com/2017/3/16/14945792/horizon-zero-dawn-launch-sales-ps4) that HZD sold more than 2.6 million in the first 2 weeks so that alone should tell you the sales numbers don't include digital. Just pointing that out so you could know where Leo-J was coming from.

Digital is huge for hzd. I still believe hdz is ahead of LoZ. But LoZ will leg out better. We will see a better picture of this next npd.

 

As of right now (or end of march) i believe a good estimate of hzd+zelda shipped+digital is...

 

4.5mil-4.8mil HDZ

3.5mil-3.7mil LoZ

 

Next 1quarter LoZ will ship at around 50% more than hzd is my bet.

 



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Slownenberg said:
Uabit said:

Sure Horizon is very eyecandy but there are really shameful things about it.

 



Wow! Obviously the hzd ps4 graphics are much better than Zelda, thought Zelda graphics are still fantastic. But good lord zelda is soooooo much better made! So much more attention to detail and realistic! The difference between the two is pretty shocking. 

Oh man I was going to pick up Horizon after I had finished BotW but after watching that I ain't sure now. I mean no splashes when you walk in water? Setting fire to water? Does it also not have footprints I  snow cos that's a bugbear off mine



Wyrdness said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

Well we KNOW(http://www.polygon.com/2017/3/16/14945792/horizon-zero-dawn-launch-sales-ps4) that HZD sold more than 2.6 million in the first 2 weeks so that alone should tell you the sales numbers don't include digital. Just pointing that out so you could know where Leo-J was coming from.

BOTW sales don't include digital either though.

Oh trust me I know, I never said it did. I was just putting things into perspective for him about what Leo-j said. And logically it would be safe to assume that digital sales for HZD would be higher than that of BoTW so that is a slight edge for HZD. So with teh sales being so close if digital were to be included that would definitely put HZD in front. At least that is my line of thought.

tbone51 said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

Well we KNOW(http://www.polygon.com/2017/3/16/14945792/horizon-zero-dawn-launch-sales-ps4) that HZD sold more than 2.6 million in the first 2 weeks so that alone should tell you the sales numbers don't include digital. Just pointing that out so you could know where Leo-J was coming from.

Digital is huge for hzd. I still believe hdz is ahead of LoZ. But LoZ will leg out better. We will see a better picture of this next npd.

 

As of right now (or end of march) i believe a good estimate of hzd+zelda shipped+digital is...

 

4.5mil-4.8mil HDZ

3.5mil-3.7mil LoZ

 

Next 1quarter LoZ will ship at around 50% more than hzd is my bet.

 

Yeah I can see that being pretty close to the sales numbers for both as well inclusding digital. And I also think BoTW will have better legs than HZD and sell better. I just don't think it will be by a huge amount. I think they will both end of being pretty close when LT sales are said and done. And both well deserving as well!



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

TheBlackNaruto said:
abroZ said:

 

According to this website 

Horizon Zero Dawn - 18 days on the market - sold 2,355,000

Breath of the wild - 16 days on the market - sold 2,384,000

These figures don't back your statement...care to elaborate or provide  link or something?

Well we KNOW(http://www.polygon.com/2017/3/16/14945792/horizon-zero-dawn-launch-sales-ps4) that HZD sold more than 2.6 million in the first 2 weeks so that alone should tell you the sales numbers don't include digital. Just pointing that out so you could know where Leo-J was coming from.

Yes I knew he was basing that statement off of that figure....that was for the first two weeks, how about the txo weeks that came after that? Did he guess or does he have inside information? And to make that statement you also need worldwide sales figures for breath of the wild. I haven't seen a worldwide figure for march...and did he also count Zelda's digital sales? Where did those numbers come from? So unless Nintendo and Sony provide numbers for the whole month of march, I'm using the figures this site provides and by the looks of it with two more weeks on the counter. It doesn't seem very likely that HZD will outsell Zelda in its first month.



Think for yourself, question authority

BotW - 1.385 mil (Fastest selling Nintendo launch game and Zelda title)
Switch - 925k (900k retail, 25k digital)
Wii U - 460k
HZD > 1 million ( >646k physical)
1-2 Switch - ~172k
It seems HZD had great digital numbers.



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abroZ said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

Well we KNOW(http://www.polygon.com/2017/3/16/14945792/horizon-zero-dawn-launch-sales-ps4) that HZD sold more than 2.6 million in the first 2 weeks so that alone should tell you the sales numbers don't include digital. Just pointing that out so you could know where Leo-J was coming from.

Yes I knew he was basing that statement off of that figure....that was for the first two weeks, how about the tzo weeks that came after that? Did he guess or does he have inside information? And to make that statement you also need worldwide sales figures for breath of the wild too. I haven't seen a worldwide figure for march...and did he also count Zelda's digital sales? Where did those numbers come from? So unless Nintendo and Sony provide numbers for the whole month of march, i'm using the figures this site provides and by the looks of it with two more weeks on the counter. It doesn't seem very likely that HZD will outsell Zelda in its first month.

As I stated in my post below this one logically it would be safe to assume that digital sales for HZD would be higher than that of BoTW so that is a slight edge for HZD. So with the sales being so close retail if digital were to be included that would definitely put HZD in front. At least that is my line of thought. Because digital would be higher on PS4 than Switch or Wii U as I stated in the March NPD thread.

But since it is indeed likely that digital would be higher on PS4 than on Switch and Wii U then that would defintely give HZD the edge imo of course. I mean as the atricle stated it sold MORE than 2.6 million in under 2 weeks. So say if we use the 18 days from this website 2,355,000. We know it sold MORE than 2.6 million including digital in under 2 weeks. So that's almost 300k missing from the first 2 weeks alone for HZD with digital. And it is highly unlikely that there is another 300k missing from the Wii U for digital at best it would be half that number which still puts HZD in front.

But I said all that to say in cases like these where retail is so close digital plays a huge factor and with that HZD would definitely have the edge....for the first month anyway.

Edit: For instance HZD had 40% digital sales for March in the US alone. 40% digital.....



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

Nogamez said:
Slownenberg said:

Wow! Obviously the hzd ps4 graphics are much better than Zelda, thought Zelda graphics are still fantastic. But good lord zelda is soooooo much better made! So much more attention to detail and realistic! The difference between the two is pretty shocking. 

Oh man I was going to pick up Horizon after I had finished BotW but after watching that I ain't sure now. I mean no splashes when you walk in water? Setting fire to water? Does it also not have footprints I  snow cos that's a bugbear off mine

Water is the only one that bothers me a lot, but in general Horizon makes some interactive detail compromises in favour of other types of dynamics elements. They wanted to be able to do none-scripted stuff like this...  



and this http://i.imgur.com/lflc6tA.mp4 (can't embed this one) ...without compromising the game's graphical quality. Whether that was the correct choice is up for debate, but stuff like in the gifs is certainly a lot of fun when it's happening.



Nogamez said:
Slownenberg said:

Wow! Obviously the hzd ps4 graphics are much better than Zelda, thought Zelda graphics are still fantastic. But good lord zelda is soooooo much better made! So much more attention to detail and realistic! The difference between the two is pretty shocking. 

Oh man I was going to pick up Horizon after I had finished BotW but after watching that I ain't sure now. I mean no splashes when you walk in water? Setting fire to water? Does it also not have footprints I  snow cos that's a bugbear off mine

Don't knock it 'til you try it. HZD may not be as realistic as BotW but I've heard some praise it for its combat for example. And if you love graphics, HZD is miles ahead.



tbone51 said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

Well we KNOW(http://www.polygon.com/2017/3/16/14945792/horizon-zero-dawn-launch-sales-ps4) that HZD sold more than 2.6 million in the first 2 weeks so that alone should tell you the sales numbers don't include digital. Just pointing that out so you could know where Leo-J was coming from.

Digital is huge for hzd. I still believe hdz is ahead of LoZ. But LoZ will leg out better. We will see a better picture of this next npd.

 

As of right now (or end of march) i believe a good estimate of hzd+zelda shipped+digital is...

 

4.5mil-4.8mil HDZ

3.5mil-3.7mil LoZ

 

Next 1quarter LoZ will ship at around 50% more than hzd is my bet.

 

So we know that Vgchartz doesn’t track digital.

The figure they provide for HZD as of March 18th is

2,355,000

The figure Sony provided for the first two weeks is

2,600,000

Let’s say HZD sold around 400,000 units digitally in its first two weeks that sounds about right, right?

Thats 2,200,000 phisical and 400,000 digital as of march 15th. Now let’s add another 150,000 for the 16th, 17th, and 18th, (being optimistic) to line it up with Vgchartz. That would put it at 2,750,000 as of March 18th does that sound reasonable? So for HZD to reach around 4,7 million units (like you predicted), it would need to sell another 2 million units in the remaining two weeks of march.

That seems like a really big number when you consider that HZD in the week ending March 18th only sold 158,000 in retail, and let’s say about a fourth of that digitally, some 40,000 units so about 200,000 in total for the week ending March 18th. Let’s say for the two weeks following March 18th, HZD sells just as much (again being optimistic) so 200,000 for the week ending March 25th, and another 200,000 for the week eding april 1st .  it would put total sales of HZD at 3,150,000 for March. So if Sony says they sold 2,600,000 within the first two weeks. My reasoning would leave another 550,000 for the rest of the month. Since we know that the game is heavily front loaded I would say that is a far more realistic number, wouldn’t you agree?



Think for yourself, question authority

Andy97 said:
BotW - 1.385 mil (Fastest selling Nintendo launch game and Zelda title)
Switch - 925k (900k retail, 25k digital)
Wii U - 460k
HZD > 1 million ( >646k physical)
1-2 Switch - ~172k
It seems HZD had great digital numbers.

Ayy, that looks like my NPD thread

OT: I don't know if HZD will be a long seller. New IPs usually sell for a long time with word of mouth, but Horizon sold incredibly well from the moment it released, so maybe it won't have very good legs. I would say it depends on bundles and deals, but I don't see it going past 6 million (which is still fantastic, god damn it).

The benefit for Zelda and launching with a system, is that it will sell for a very long time. We saw this with TP, but now that Nintendo is more willing to support games after they release (through DLC, patches, amiibos, maybe events??), it should mean that BotW can and will sell alongside the Switch. I firmly believe BotW will be the Switch's GTA V (most consoles bought = 1 BotW sale).

Conclusion: they both did really fucking good. Everybody wins.



Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

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