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Forums - Sales Discussion - November 2015 NPD Thread! Hardware and software in OP!

Farsala said:
AsGryffynn said:
Farsala said:
In the end The Order 1886 (PS4) outsells Tomb raider (XB1) during the holidays and with a 20% less install base. Guess exclusives during the holidays matters more right?

Don't tell me... I was among those who slapped themselves after seeing MS releasing RotTR on the same day as Fallout 4. I remember we cancelled a bet the moment they announced the date...



 

Question is. What is the best release date for a game like that? February, September? Clearly all guns during the holidays isn't always the best choice.

Indeed. The next big release should happen on a drought. It happened with Splatoon and they won big time...

ZhugeEX said:
You guys should know that tomb raider underworld is really overtacked for Xbox 360. Game actually only did slightly better than Rise of The Tomb Raider did on 360/one combined. (US)

I hadn't heard much of Underworld, must've been rather low profile...





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Did PS2 did 2.7 million in December 2002? those are some serious numbers

can PS4 do > 2 million in December 2015?



AsGryffynn said:

Odd... I really thought I had seen 200 million around somewhere... perhaps I mistook them for generation wide numbers...

And those predictions were when I thought the PS2 sold 200M. If it sold 155M, then I need to revise them. The XONE ones were mostly me going by the ongoing trend of the XONE always trailing behind the PS4 by 10-15M units...

That said, if the growth stays the same, we know it'll be upwards of 80M for sure...



 

The ongoing trend is the XBO selling a bit more than half of the PS4. For the gap to remain at a constant 10-15 million, the XBO would have to right now start selling at the same pace as the PS4, which it isn't. The gap is constantly increasing.



Boutros said:

All new info:

Fallout 4 XBO bundle - ~158k
Splatoon Wii U bundle - ~140k
Rise of the Tomb Raider - ~201k; XBO: ~176k (~87.44%)
Star Wars Battlefront (PS4) - ~883k (~51.16%)
Call of Duty: Black Ops III (PS4) - 2.14m (1.89m + ~251k from bundle)
Call of Duty: Black Ops III (XBO) - 1.93m
Fallout 4 < 2.38m (without bundles); PS4 < 1.26m (~53.11%)
Mario Tennis: Ultra Smash - ~18k
Animal Crossing: Amiibo Festival - ~36k
Pokémon Super Mystery Dungeon - ~115k
Yo-Kai Watch - ~71k
Need For Speed < 390k; PS4 < 252k (~64.64%)
Super Mario Maker > 140k
Yoshi's Woolly World - ~97k
Splatoon - ~105k (without bundles)

The numbers I asked several days ago. Thanks for fetching them Boutros.

so 200k BOpsIII gap in favor of PS4 and basically a tie for Fallout 4 (both when bundles are considered)

Farsala said:
In the end The Order 1886 (PS4) outsells Tomb raider (XB1) during the holidays and with a 20% less install base. Guess exclusives during the holidays matters more right?

Or The Order is the better game =p Will people still use userbase and non-holiday as excuses for game flops?

Teeqoz said:
AsGryffynn said:

Odd... I really thought I had seen 200 million around somewhere... perhaps I mistook them for generation wide numbers...

And those predictions were when I thought the PS2 sold 200M. If it sold 155M, then I need to revise them. The XONE ones were mostly me going by the ongoing trend of the XONE always trailing behind the PS4 by 10-15M units...

That said, if the growth stays the same, we know it'll be upwards of 80M for sure...

The ongoing trend is the XBO selling a bit more than half of the PS4. For the gap to remain at a constant 10-15 million, the XBO would have to right now start selling at the same pace as the PS4, which it isn't. The gap is constantly increasing.

His numbers are all bogus asspulls. Every time I ask for evidence of source he run.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Teeqoz said:
AsGryffynn said:

 

 

The ongoing trend is the XBO selling a bit less than half of the PS4.

Fixed ;)

 

So Blops X1 being given away with x1s during half of the month (in case you don't know what i'm talking about, during week 1 and 3 of November you could get Blops 3 free with any X1 purchase, and it didn't count as a bundled copy because it wasn't a bundle, despite being paid for in full by MS themselves) only outsold non-bundled ps4 version by 50k? Yep, the switch is real. At this rate next year the PS4 version won't even need bundles to be the #1 sku unless MS extends the promo they did to all 4 weeks of the month

Also means the VGC numbers for the game are wrong (we already saw if was overtracked, now we know PS4 should be #1 sku, not 2, because VGC counts bundles.



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Roronaa_chan said:
Teeqoz said:
AsGryffynn said:

 

 

The ongoing trend is the XBO selling a bit less than half of the PS4.

Fixed ;)

 

So Blops X1 being given away with x1s during half of the month (in case you don't know what i'm talking about, during week 1 and 3 of November you could get Blops 3 free with any X1 purchase, and it didn't count as a bundled copy because it wasn't a bundle, despite being paid for in full by MS themselves) only outsold non-bundled ps4 version by 50k? Yep, the switch is real. At this rate next year the PS4 version won't even need bundles to be the #1 sku unless MS extends the promo they did to all 4 weeks of the month

Also means the VGC numbers for the game are wrong (we already saw if was overtracked, now we know PS4 should be #1 sku, not 2, because VGC counts bundles.

Call of Duty: Black Ops III (PS4) - 2.14m (1.89m + ~251k from bundle)
Call of Duty: Black Ops III (XBO) - 1.93m

maybe not even 50k. And in the end since people had options to buy bundles of different games for the same price we can say that the interest for PS4 version was 10% bigger. Not much, but reflect gap of HW in USA.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Farsala said:
In the end The Order 1886 (PS4) outsells TR (XB1) during the holidays and with a 20% less install base. Guess exclusives during the holidays matters more right?

that is crazy but great ^^





Anyone know if any uncharted numbers were given out including the bundle?



Shadow1980 said:
AsGryffynn said:

That means they'd have to sell over 100 million each, since the PS2 sold nearly 200 million units...

If anything I expect them to go slightly over the 360+PS3 figures. The PS4 by a sizable margin and the Xbox One slightly above it...

 

I meant in the U.S. alone. This is an NPD thread, after all. Globally, I suspect combined PS4+XBO sales to be in the neighborhood of 150-160 million, less than the combined ~180 million the PS2 and Xbox sold and a bit short of the combined ~170 million the PS3 & 360 sold. One reason is because Japan is a shrinking market and the PS4 will never touch the PS2's numbers there and the XBO is on track to be by far the worst-selling Xbox system ever. Also, the XBO is bombing in mainland Europe, making the region sans the UK almost a single-console market; according to VGC the PS4 is selling well over four times as much as the XBO. Another reason is because I doubt the PS4 & XBO will have the legs the PS2 did, nor do I believe this generation will be as protracted as last generation. But the PS4 & XBO should both do well enough in the U.S. to at least match and probably exceed combined PS2 & Xbox sales (~61.4M according to NPD).

 



Oh well, that changes things a bit...

Teeqoz said:
AsGryffynn said:

Odd... I really thought I had seen 200 million around somewhere... perhaps I mistook them for generation wide numbers...

And those predictions were when I thought the PS2 sold 200M. If it sold 155M, then I need to revise them. The XONE ones were mostly me going by the ongoing trend of the XONE always trailing behind the PS4 by 10-15M units...

That said, if the growth stays the same, we know it'll be upwards of 80M for sure...



 

The ongoing trend is the XBO selling a bit more than half of the PS4. For the gap to remain at a constant 10-15 million, the XBO would have to right now start selling at the same pace as the PS4, which it isn't. The gap is constantly increasing.

Figured as much. This one was less of a serious prediction and more of a joke prediction that I will keep for the inside joke...

DonFerrari said:
Boutros said:

All new info:

Fallout 4 XBO bundle - ~158k
Splatoon Wii U bundle - ~140k
Rise of the Tomb Raider - ~201k; XBO: ~176k (~87.44%)
Star Wars Battlefront (PS4) - ~883k (~51.16%)
Call of Duty: Black Ops III (PS4) - 2.14m (1.89m + ~251k from bundle)
Call of Duty: Black Ops III (XBO) - 1.93m
Fallout 4 < 2.38m (without bundles); PS4 < 1.26m (~53.11%)
Mario Tennis: Ultra Smash - ~18k
Animal Crossing: Amiibo Festival - ~36k
Pokémon Super Mystery Dungeon - ~115k
Yo-Kai Watch - ~71k
Need For Speed < 390k; PS4 < 252k (~64.64%)
Super Mario Maker > 140k
Yoshi's Woolly World - ~97k
Splatoon - ~105k (without bundles)

The numbers I asked several days ago. Thanks for fetching them Boutros.

so 200k BOpsIII gap in favor of PS4 and basically a tie for Fallout 4 (both when bundles are considered)

Farsala said:
In the end The Order 1886 (PS4) outsells Tomb raider (XB1) during the holidays and with a 20% less install base. Guess exclusives during the holidays matters more right?

Or The Order is the better game =p Will people still use userbase and non-holiday as excuses for game flops?

Teeqoz said:
AsGryffynn said:

Odd... I really thought I had seen 200 million around somewhere... perhaps I mistook them for generation wide numbers...

And those predictions were when I thought the PS2 sold 200M. If it sold 155M, then I need to revise them. The XONE ones were mostly me going by the ongoing trend of the XONE always trailing behind the PS4 by 10-15M units...

That said, if the growth stays the same, we know it'll be upwards of 80M for sure...

The ongoing trend is the XBO selling a bit more than half of the PS4. For the gap to remain at a constant 10-15 million, the XBO would have to right now start selling at the same pace as the PS4, which it isn't. The gap is constantly increasing.

His numbers are all bogus asspulls. Every time I ask for evidence of source he run.

No, this ones are. I have given you real numbers before...

And I have a life too, y'know?

Just don't use the ones on my sig... I never put real numbers on my sig...





Lawlight said:
I though console gaming was dying.

No one has ever said that. It is past its peak, but this gen should still end up with sales close to 6th gen, just with more Xbs sold, and fewer PSs and Wii Us compared to the 6th gen counterparts. The 9th gen will determine whether console gaming is dying.





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