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Forums - Gaming - Former Microsoft CTO says VR/AR at least 'a decade' away from being mainstream

Nem said:
Teeqoz said:


Setting up false premises in a question like that doesn't exactly cultivate a good discussion. TV might be superior for some types of games, but for others, it isn't even a competetion. Horror games, racing games, most first person games in general, especially those based around adventure and exploration, because immersion is just that much better.


Alright... but TV does all that, albeit a bit less imersively, but does the other ones better and doesnt make you look like a tool... and you dont need to spend an extra 300 or whatever if will cost.


Then you already have the answer: If you're willing to spend 300$ for a more immersive experience in quite a few types of games, then you'd get this. People are willing to spend 2000$ on gaming rigs able to run stuff at higher FPS and res, there's bound to be quite a few people who'd want to get the most immersive experience on console as well. Obviously it won't be mainstream any time soon, if ever, but there will be quite a few people who will want to have the most immersive experience on their console possible, because even though it may cost 250-300$, that is still very much affordable, and a much smaller investment than spending the money you'd need to get a VR capable PC.



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Teeqoz said:
Nem said:


Alright... but TV does all that, albeit a bit less imersively, but does the other ones better and doesnt make you look like a tool... and you dont need to spend an extra 300 or whatever if will cost.


Then you already have the answer: If you're willing to spend 300$ for a more immersive experience in quite a few types of games, then you'd get this. People are willing to spend 2000$ on gaming rigs able to run stuff at higher FPS and res, there's bound to be quite a few people who'd want to get the most immersive experience on console as well. Obviously it won't be mainstream any time soon, if ever, but there will be quite a few people who will want to have the most immersive experience on their console possible, because even though it may cost 250-300$, that is still very much affordable, and a much smaller investment than spending the money you'd need to get a VR capable PC.


Pretty much.

But without hitting mainstream its unlikely software support will get much better.



Nem said:
Teeqoz said:


Then you already have the answer: If you're willing to spend 300$ for a more immersive experience in quite a few types of games, then you'd get this. People are willing to spend 2000$ on gaming rigs able to run stuff at higher FPS and res, there's bound to be quite a few people who'd want to get the most immersive experience on console as well. Obviously it won't be mainstream any time soon, if ever, but there will be quite a few people who will want to have the most immersive experience on their console possible, because even though it may cost 250-300$, that is still very much affordable, and a much smaller investment than spending the money you'd need to get a VR capable PC.


Pretty much.

But without hitting mainstream its unlikely software support will get much better.

Racing wheels aren't mainstream, can only be used with one genre, and have plenty support for a little bit more immersion.
VR is a lot more versatile than a racing wheel.

VR is also a lot easier and cheaper to set up than 3 projectors or multiple monitors with capable hardware to run games at ultra wide resolutions, which still doesn't give you head tracking. I can see VR taking off quite well in Japan where living space is at a premium.

No more looking at virtual worlds with blinders on.



All technology need to start somewhere and grow or else it will never be better, that is why progress is so important but even trees and plants needs to be seed in a good enviroment to grow. I don't understand why people complain that VR are out too soon, better now then later, so that games can grow with it.



 

PSN: Opticstrike90
Steam: opticstrike90

All technology need to start somewhere and grow or else it will never be better, that is why progress is so important but even trees and plants needs to be seed in a good enviroment to grow. I don't understand why people complain that VR are out too soon, better now then later



 

PSN: Opticstrike90
Steam: opticstrike90

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Hes absolutely right



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Insidb said:
Normchacho said:


I'm not saying that the situations are necessarily comparable, I'm illustrating just how far tech moves in 10 years.

The actual tech behind VR is pretty much ready today. To expect it to take another 10 years for VR to become mainstream is failing to see how quickly these things happen.

I'm with you: in less than 10 years, the iPhone became the smart phone paragon. Prior to that, I was using an old school RAZR, like the rest of the world. Hell, I had a Rio player: the iPod revolution was just beginning. All this happened, in 10 years, with far less-developed builds out or releasing. Several VR platforms are products today, so I think a short term adoption would be unsurpising.

I still disagree with you both.  I get that technology can be adopted quicker than the 10yr timeframe.  BUT, you are talking about taking something that has a limited use and making it mainstream.  That was the point I was making with the iphone comparison.  In that it disproves the point that it can be adopted quickly.  THe iphone has a ton of benefits to a mass market user.  VR/AR has very few uses for 90% of the population outside of gaming.  Thats why the main theory is that "mainstream" adoption will take so long.  The tech existing doesn't give it a use by everyone.  It will take years of ever changing tech before it is really even feasible for easy use by mainstreamers, let alone practial uses being found for most users.



It is near the end of the end....

Landguy said:
Insidb said:

I'm with you: in less than 10 years, the iPhone became the smart phone paragon. Prior to that, I was using an old school RAZR, like the rest of the world. Hell, I had a Rio player: the iPod revolution was just beginning. All this happened, in 10 years, with far less-developed builds out or releasing. Several VR platforms are products today, so I think a short term adoption would be unsurpising.

I still disagree with you both.  I get that technology can be adopted quicker than the 10yr timeframe.  BUT, you are talking about taking something that has a limited use and making it mainstream.  That was the point I was making with the iphone comparison.  In that it disproves the point that it can be adopted quickly.  THe iphone has a ton of benefits to a mass market user.  VR/AR has very few uses for 90% of the population outside of gaming.  Thats why the main theory is that "mainstream" adoption will take so long.  The tech existing doesn't give it a use by everyone.  It will take years of ever changing tech before it is really even feasible for easy use by mainstreamers, let alone practial uses being found for most users.

Exactly, people acting like VR/AR is supposed to be the second coming of the iphone have no idea how tech actually works. What actually made smartphones mainstream, etc. If they did they wouldn't be comparing VR/AR to them.

At best we are looking at first gen Kinect sales projections for PSVR. Just because you can imagine a whole mess of things to do with a VR helmet, doesn't mean any of it is realistic or will be popular. 



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

SvennoJ said:
Nem said:
Teeqoz said:


Then you already have the answer: If you're willing to spend 300$ for a more immersive experience in quite a few types of games, then you'd get this. People are willing to spend 2000$ on gaming rigs able to run stuff at higher FPS and res, there's bound to be quite a few people who'd want to get the most immersive experience on console as well. Obviously it won't be mainstream any time soon, if ever, but there will be quite a few people who will want to have the most immersive experience on their console possible, because even though it may cost 250-300$, that is still very much affordable, and a much smaller investment than spending the money you'd need to get a VR capable PC.


Pretty much.

But without hitting mainstream its unlikely software support will get much better.

Racing wheels aren't mainstream, can only be used with one genre, and have plenty support for a little bit more immersion.
VR is a lot more versatile than a racing wheel.

VR is also a lot easier and cheaper to set up than 3 projectors or multiple monitors with capable hardware to run games at ultra wide resolutions, which still doesn't give you head tracking. I can see VR taking off quite well in Japan where living space is at a premium.

No more looking at virtual worlds with blinders on.


And how do those steering wheels sell? Selling 1 or 2 millions isnt enough to support what is basically a new platform. The Vita can't survive with 10.

If its an acessory and every game just has some functionality for it... you still have to deal with the fact that it makes you look like a tool.

I don't see it taking off at all. But we are both allowed our opinions.



VR is at the beginning. It will become a huge success as its a fundamentally different way to interact with technology and people.

I think communication will be the main draw for VR for the mainstream.

Oculus is actually realistic about the potential and expects hundreds of thousands maybe the low millions for the first headset,

However there is so much stuff you can do with VR its mindblowing.

It has to start somewhere and it will become a big thing in the next decades.

AR is technologically more complicated and I am not talking about the simple things like overlaying 2D Sprites over a picture like PS Eye games or AR phone apps.

But about a system that renders an object correctly and stable in an augmented reality. 10+ years I would guess.

Oculus Vive and PS VR is here and will build a dedicated fanbase that will slowly grow over the years.

I am confident it will happen and is the next big thing.

It might start out as a small thing not for everybody but Mobile+VR+Internet+more computing power will fundamentally change our society soon..

Most people will use it regulary for non gaming uses. Or maybe everything will be a game of some sort.

Throw self driving cars (right around the corner) + Carbon nano tubes + Space Elevator + Fusion+ medical advances in the mix and we will withness scifi of the 80s maybe around 2050-2060