Former Microsoft CTO says VR/AR at least 'a decade' away from being mainstream

[Dr.Henry_Killinger]

Landguy said:

Insidb said:

I'm with you: in less than 10 years, the iPhone became the smart phone paragon. Prior to that, I was using an old school RAZR, like the rest of the world. Hell, I had a Rio player: the iPod revolution was just beginning. All this happened, in 10 years, with far less-developed builds out or releasing. Several VR platforms are products today, so I think a short term adoption would be unsurpising.

I still disagree with you both.  I get that technology can be adopted quicker than the 10yr timeframe.  BUT, you are talking about taking something that has a limited use and making it mainstream.  That was the point I was making with the iphone comparison.  In that it disproves the point that it can be adopted quickly.  THe iphone has a ton of benefits to a mass market user.  VR/AR has very few uses for 90% of the population outside of gaming.  Thats why the main theory is that "mainstream" adoption will take so long.  The tech existing doesn't give it a use by everyone.  It will take years of ever changing tech before it is really even feasible for easy use by mainstreamers, let alone practial uses being found for most users.

Exactly, people acting like VR/AR is supposed to be the second coming of the iphone have no idea how tech actually works. What actually made smartphones mainstream, etc. If they did they wouldn't be comparing VR/AR to them.

At best we are looking at first gen Kinect sales projections for PSVR. Just because you can imagine a whole mess of things to do with a VR helmet, doesn't mean any of it is realistic or will be popular.