Depends on Splatoon's 2016 legs. You can discern patterns in a given moment but wrenches can break some gears. Just like most people expected more from H5, the assumptions you are making could also not be met (including the late NX launch). H5's UK numbers were a "wrench" and there could be some kind of wrench that hurts your prediction).
One thing though.. H5 will reach Splatoon's current number much faster than Splatoon. So.. I think "hands down" is not the right thing to say.