Given VGC has the whole month for Xb one at just 295K I can't imagine they have the week of the 20th being all that big. You've basically got 155K of console sales to split across 3 weeks. If you gave 100K to the week of the 20th, that would make the previous 2 weeks just 27.5K a piece, averaged. I dunno, maybe Xb one slumped for 2 weeks before Halo 5. You could expect a dip for a week or two before a game as big as Halo 5 launches. But not that much. I also doubt the 20th week is higer than the actual Halo launch week. I'd be more inclined to give the 20th week 70-80K and the previous 2 weeks at least 40K.

That's assuming VGC isn't undertracking by a large amount. Add another 50K to the Xb one US monthly total and you can  have 2 weeks over 100K for the Halo effect. And pretty much a tie for October between PS4 and Xb one.

ExactlY!

Don't be hesintant ,say it with confidece...

It's very reasonable, I said it first in the thread about ps4 shipping 29.3m units...

Look:

NewGuy said:

tak13 said:

What do you think about these?

It's almost a guarantee that Microsoft won't take Worldwide, ever, this gen.  They rely too heavily on the US market to fulfill make up for Europe/Asia/RoW, and they can't even get that the vast majority of the time.

I think X11 would have done 275k or more had the halo bundle not came out the week before.

If I recall correctly Xbox One was doing horribly in the first two weeks on the amazon thread. Even though the Halo bundle was not doing too good for the first 2 weeks. From the amazon thread we have:

Week 1 (Oct. 5 - 11)

PS4 Destiny bundle: #22
PS4 LE Star Wars bundle: #23*
PS4 TLoU bundle: #25
PS4 NDC bundle: #36
XBO Halo 5 bundle: #38
PS4 LE COD bundle: #57*
New 3DS XL: #88
XBO Madden bundle: #91
XBO Gears bundle: #96

Week 2 (Oct. 12 - 18)

XBO Halo 5 bundle: #19
PS4 TLoU bundle: #26
PS4 NDC bundle: #30
PS4 LE Star Wars bundle: #40*
PS4 COD bundle: #59*
XBO Forza bundle: #89
New 3DS XL: #92

Week 3 Oct. 19 - 25)

PS4 NDC bundle: #13
XBO Halo 5 bundle: #22
PS4 LE Star Wars bundle: #28*
PS4 COD bundle: #50*
PS4 Basic Star Wars bundle: #65*
XBO Gears bundle: #67
XBO Forza bundle: #100

Week 4 (Oct. 26 - Nov. 1)

PS4 NDC bundle: #11
PS4 COD bundle: #19*
XBO Kinect bundle: #23
PS4 LE Star Wars bundle: #24*
XBO Halo 5 bundle: #42
PS4 Basic Star Wars bundle: #49*
XBO Gears bundle: #46
XBO Fallout 4 bundle: #66
XBO Madden bundle: #68
XBO Forza bundle: #86
New 3DS XL: #91

In week 1, the bundles that would have counted for the week are at 91 and 96. For week 2 the bundle that would have counted are at 89.

Even amazon "suggest" that week 1 and 2 were probably weak. But with the pre order for the Halo Bundle, to me it feels like week 3 might have been bigger than week 4 or closer than 100k vs 140k

Yes, I read most of that back in the 29.3 million thread. And I more or less said similar things. I think 2.8 million in the retail channels as at 30 Sept is on the high side, but only 500K or so, certainly not outrageously out of whack like some people seem to be suggesting.

I always prefer VGC to under estimate sales anyway, if they do that then you will never get the ridiculous (but statistically valid) situation of the hardware sell through LTD on VGC being higher than the hardware sell-in LTD according to the company's own financial reports. And it is always better if the fanbase is able to say "Awesome, my favoiurite console is doing even better than I thought", than for the haters to have ammunition to talk shit when overtracking is involved.

People should also remember that a 1 million LTD error for PS4 only represents only a 3.6% error, and I personally think any LTD that is within 5% of actual is a reasonable performance level for VGC, considering it only ever presents itself as estimating sales. And I think end of Septmber numbers show that PS4 is not undertracked by more than 1 million.

There's an interesting project management costing tool that I wonder how good it would be for estimating hardware sales. A group of people write down their estimates for a project's costs. The group then looks at each estimate, the person with the highest estimate has to explain their estimate and the person with the lowest estimate has to exoplain their estimate, and then everyone does another round of estimates and reiterate the process until everyone estimates the same number. This has proven to be quite a reliable method of determing budgets for projects. It would be almost impossible to do in a virtual environment, but I wonder how well it would work for estimating weekly hardware sales from quarter to quarter. We generally know enough about quarterly shipment patterns to know roughly how many consoles will be shipped in any given quarter. So could a small group of self-appointed sales geeks come up with weekly numbers that cumulatively accurately align with quarterly shipments?

I'm inclined to think that VGC has lowballed Xb oe sales in the USA for October, as I seriously doubt early Oct numbers dropped below 30K per week, and that just does not leave enough consoles to fill what should have been a fairly big week for 18-24 Oct. Even if it was a lower week than actual launch week, it's still going to be a very big week.

Man your chart makes no sense for the PS4 numbers, we know Sony sold 29.3 million units as of Sept 30th!... you show them at 27.7 a month later...

Yes it does feel like the sales should be more than what we are seeing for the month for Xbox One

Sony shipped 29.3 million. Actual retail sales will be lower than that, and the gap will be pretty big heading into the holidayts compared to other times of year. The discrepancy is not as large or as bad as you think.