Hardware charts updated 31st October

[binary solo]

tak13 said:

binary solo said:

Intrinsic said:

wow!!!! so vgc numbers are even worse than I thought???!!!!

Actually I don't think they are as bad as people think. Sure VGC could be undertracking by 1.5 million. But it's also possible Sony is building up plentiful stock to guarantee no shortages for the holidays. I think the time to really assess VGCs tracking is when the December Q shipments get announced. You should expect sell-in LTD and sell through LTD to be fairly close if Sony was able to manage its stock. Right now >2 million in the retail channels (which will include retailer distribution centres, not shop floors) isn't completely unrealistic for this time of year. PS4 just had 2 months selling >1 million consoles (Sept and Oct). So at this time of year 2 million in the retail channels is only ~8 weeks of forward supply. Is 8 weeks forward supply really that outrageous? Doesn't seem that unreasonable to me.

ExactlY!

Don't be hesintant ,say it with confidece...

It's very reasonable, I said it first in the thread about ps4 shipping 29.3m units...

Look:

NewGuy said:

tak13 said:

Newguy you should first take into account the selling pace of a console to assume how much is the stock of it... 

It would be weird for 2.8m on the shelves (you never know) , I agree, but  2m isn't irrational, and sometimes companies overstuffing the channels! :P XBOX360 was used to have 2m on the shelves, that is proven!

You're implying that there are 1m on the shelves, that's way  low for a console that sells like ps4, this  is what 3DS has in its fourth year and ps4 ships the triple numbers...

SWORDF1SH said:

Lawlight said:
Now we know what well over 25M means - 29.3M.

I would say that they are 30M+ now, with about 29M in consumer hands.

tak13 said:

 

1m stock is very low for a console selling like ps4!

It might be selling 200k a week, with only 1m stock we would already have heard news about ps4 stock problems...

1m+ seems to be the stock of 3DS (based on a extrapolation with shipments/sale comparison in its best selling territory) that is in it's fourth year and sells 100k a week and ps4 shipped the triple numbers of what 3DS did in last quarter...    

 

What do you think about these?

Yes, I read most of that back in the 29.3 million thread. And I more or less said similar things. I think 2.8 million in the retail channels as at 30 Sept is on the high side, but only 500K or so, certainly not outrageously out of whack like some people seem to be suggesting.

I always prefer VGC to under estimate sales anyway, if they do that then you will never get the ridiculous (but statistically valid) situation of the hardware sell through LTD on VGC being higher than the hardware sell-in LTD according to the company's own financial reports. And it is always better if the fanbase is able to say "Awesome, my favoiurite console is doing even better than I thought", than for the haters to have ammunition to talk shit when overtracking is involved.

People should also remember that a 1 million LTD error for PS4 only represents only a 3.6% error, and I personally think any LTD that is within 5% of actual is a reasonable performance level for VGC, considering it only ever presents itself as estimating sales. And I think end of Septmber numbers show that PS4 is not undertracked by more than 1 million.

There's an interesting project management costing tool that I wonder how good it would be for estimating hardware sales. A group of people write down their estimates for a project's costs. The group then looks at each estimate, the person with the highest estimate has to explain their estimate and the person with the lowest estimate has to exoplain their estimate, and then everyone does another round of estimates and reiterate the process until everyone estimates the same number. This has proven to be quite a reliable method of determing budgets for projects. It would be almost impossible to do in a virtual environment, but I wonder how well it would work for estimating weekly hardware sales from quarter to quarter. We generally know enough about quarterly shipment patterns to know roughly how many consoles will be shipped in any given quarter. So could a small group of self-appointed sales geeks come up with weekly numbers that cumulatively accurately align with quarterly shipments?