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Forums - Microsoft - RUMOR: Halo 5 sold 1.4-1.5 Million in US

Puppyroach on 08 November 2015
SWORDF1SH said:
Let's do a summary.

1.5M in US for first week and according to VGC the ROW make up 32% of sales(Halo 4). This gives us a projection of 2.2M at retail WW.

Now add digital. 20% is the upper limit for digital and I believe that Halo will be pushing that or exceeding it slightly so we'll stick with 20% of sales being digital. That brings the total up to 2.75M digital and retail.

Now we can project the LTD sales. According to VGC, 1st week accounted for 38% of LTD for Halo 4. This will project Halo 5 to have a LTD of 7.34M

So if rumor is correct and VGC data is reliable LTD sales should be between 6.6M and 8M.

That's isn't too bad for halo, but puts it below 2,3,4 and Reach.

Except according to MS, it's the best selling digital title of all time on the Xbox store for the first week, and there digital titles that have sold more than 500000 the first week.



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SWORDF1SH on 08 November 2015
Puppyroach said:
SWORDF1SH said:
Let's do a summary.

1.5M in US for first week and according to VGC the ROW make up 32% of sales(Halo 4). This gives us a projection of 2.2M at retail WW.

Now add digital. 20% is the upper limit for digital and I believe that Halo will be pushing that or exceeding it slightly so we'll stick with 20% of sales being digital. That brings the total up to 2.75M digital and retail.

Now we can project the LTD sales. According to VGC, 1st week accounted for 38% of LTD for Halo 4. This will project Halo 5 to have a LTD of 7.34M

So if rumor is correct and VGC data is reliable LTD sales should be between 6.6M and 8M.

That's isn't too bad for halo, but puts it below 2,3,4 and Reach.

Except according to MS, it's the best selling digital title of all time on the Xbox store for the first week, and there digital titles that have sold more than 500000 the first week.

Ok but the if you look, digital adds 550k to retail. What are you expecting?



SWORDF1SH on 08 November 2015
Snoopy said:

Halo 5 attach ratio is pretty good. If it sold about 3 million in the first week with only 15-18 million xbox one (going with 16 million) basically 1/5th of the xbox fanbase already bought it on week one. Im sure if there was as much xbox ones as there are when 360s when halo 4  was released then it would be just as good if not better in terms of sales. Halo 3 was lucky due to the fact that there was no competition at all. COD4 wasn't a thing yet.

O you're still on this.

Stop it with the COD shit, you just look desperate trying to justify figures that we do not even know yet.



Puppyroach on 08 November 2015
SWORDF1SH said:
Puppyroach said:

Except according to MS, it's the best selling digital title of all time on the Xbox store for the first week, and there digital titles that have sold more than 500000 the first week.

Ok but the if you look, digital adds 550k to retail. What are you expecting?

Well. the previous record is held by Minecraft that sold 1 million first week



SWORDF1SH on 08 November 2015
Puppyroach said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Ok but the if you look, digital adds 550k to retail. What are you expecting?

Well. the previous record is held by Minecraft that sold 1 million first week

Yeah you're going have to give me a source. All I'm getting from google is 100k day one.

Edit: I found a source.

Do you believe it sold 1M digital?



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Farsala on 08 November 2015
Barozi said:
Farsala said:
Barozi said:
Aura7541 said:
Barozi said:
thread has really gone downhill.

People coming in without realising this is US only (and a rumor).

People claiming that UK = ~(Worldwide minus US) for X1 software sales.
CoD AW First Week (US 57.5%; UK 12.9%; Rest 29.6%)
Destiny First Week (US 59.4%; UK 12.7%; Rest 27.9%)
Halo MCC First Week (US 60.3%; UK 11.4%; Rest 28.3%)


People trying to act as if 10%, 20% or 30% digital sales of a game that sold about 2m retail WW (if the rumor is correct) is as insignificant as the same ratio for games that do well below 1m. (hint: even if the ratio is the same, the absolute numbers are quite different).

_______________________________________________________________

If the rumor is correct, Halo 5 should be around 2.1m retail and probably around 2.5m with digital.

Btw. does that 1.4-1.5m even include the bundle?

The bundle is not included as the number allegedly comes from NPD, so standalone physical copies only.

I made some calculations based on the numbers you gave. Halo 5 might have sold between 2.8 - 3.0 million worldwide. That's still lower than how much 3, Reach, and 4 sold in the US alone.

According to which source?

VGC has all of them at about 2.4m for the first week in the US. (none of them were digitally available at launch)

Halo 3 is obviously the pinnacle of the series in terms of sales. It had an insane first week considering how early it came out in that generation.
I doubt anyone was expecting Halo 5 to beat that when even Reach and 4 couldn't with a much higher userbase. And that brings me to my second point. Was anyone expecting Halo 5 to outsell Reach or 4 in the first week when there is this huge discrepancy in userbase?

Just because Halo 5 isn't close to the monster launch that was Halo 3 doesn't mean that the numbers are low.


Noone is saying the numbers are low. It is low for Halo: IE Halo 3 Halo Reach and Halo 4.

People generally overestimate Digital. Especially for a game that sells massive numbers Digital % of 30% would be straight insane.

And honestly u use VGC for your SW, but then discredit them for SW. So the percentages could very well be just as untrue. (unless u cite a different source)

Show me a few established big selling game series that have a current gen entry that have a higher first week than their predecessors on last gen.

Fifa? Nope, CoD? Nope, Mario Kart? Nope (MK Wii was released later in the US), Assassins Creed? Nope, Battlefield? Nope. etc.
You won't find many and the reason for that is simple. The generation is still very young or in the case of the WiiU, the userbase was never comparable. While userbase isn't everything, 50m people more can make quite a difference.

I never calculated with 30% digital sales, just saw it mentioned here and there. Then I compared x% of a high number to x% of a much lower number. Doesn't mean that I think that 30% is true.

Now, where do I discredit VGC numbers?


Fifa, CoD, and AC are selling higher then their first entry last gen, But Halo and Battlefield are not. Far cry is also not declining. Star wars battlefront will do great, and hopefully Fallout 4.

But even not, they would be lumped into the category of Declining franchises like Halo 5. 

Sure big shooter and racing franchises are mostly declining. But many smaller franchises are showing growth gen over gen from their first entries. Dragon age on PS4 is doing fine, Witcher 3 is doing Great, Samurai Warriors, MLB, MGS, Bloodborne> Demon souls,  Possible others.

@bold I thought you were making fun of VGCs  poor tracking, my bad.



hudsoniscool on 08 November 2015
SWORDF1SH said:
Let's do a summary.

1.5M in US for first week and according to VGC the ROW make up 32% of sales(Halo 4). This gives us a projection of 2.2M at retail WW.

Now add digital. 20% is the upper limit for digital and I believe that Halo will be pushing that or exceeding it slightly so we'll stick with 20% of sales being digital. That brings the total up to 2.75M digital and retail.

Now we can project the LTD sales. According to VGC, 1st week accounted for 38% of LTD for Halo 4. This will project Halo 5 to have a LTD of 7.34M

So if rumor is correct and VGC data is reliable LTD sales should be between 6.6M and 8M.

That's isn't too bad for halo, but puts it below 2,3,4 and Reach.


Nice breakdown, however I believe digital is a little higher. Maybe even 30 percent, here's why. The halo 5 consoles were all digital, and the LE's were digital. Also I feel like people wanted to play right at midnight(9pm here on the west coast). Buying it digitally allowed people to download the big patch early. Anyway I think it's at least 20%. Also I feel like the 38% of ltd is fw is too low for this game. It's early in the gen and there's only 15 million consoles sold. If 343 doesn't put out a halo fps in the next year or 2 it will help h5's legs. Although if we go odst2 or something next year that would kill it. Seams like halo wars might come out late next year if it doesn't get delayed. I don't think a era will hurt its sales. And with all the free content being added that can only help. 

 

Anyway if u are right

2.75 million Fw and 7.34 LT isn't that bad for a console that isn't in great shape. Some people act like its the end of the world but that isn't really that bad.



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.

jlmurph2 on 08 November 2015
SWORDF1SH said:
Let's do a summary.

1.5M in US for first week and according to VGC the ROW make up 32% of sales(Halo 4). This gives us a projection of 2.2M at retail WW.

Now add digital. 20% is the upper limit for digital and I believe that Halo will be pushing that or exceeding it slightly so we'll stick with 20% of sales being digital. That brings the total up to 2.75M digital and retail.

Now we can project the LTD sales. According to VGC, 1st week accounted for 38% of LTD for Halo 4. This will project Halo 5 to have a LTD of 7.34M

So if rumor is correct and VGC data is reliable LTD sales should be between 6.6M and 8M.

That's isn't too bad for halo, but puts it below 2,3,4 and Reach.

Kinda weird to use Halo 4. A year later Xbox One released and slowed 360's sales. Its a different LTD situation. But I guess that's the closest we have.



SWORDF1SH on 08 November 2015
jlmurph2 said:
SWORDF1SH said:
Let's do a summary.

1.5M in US for first week and according to VGC the ROW make up 32% of sales(Halo 4). This gives us a projection of 2.2M at retail WW.

Now add digital. 20% is the upper limit for digital and I believe that Halo will be pushing that or exceeding it slightly so we'll stick with 20% of sales being digital. That brings the total up to 2.75M digital and retail.

Now we can project the LTD sales. According to VGC, 1st week accounted for 38% of LTD for Halo 4. This will project Halo 5 to have a LTD of 7.34M

So if rumor is correct and VGC data is reliable LTD sales should be between 6.6M and 8M.

That's isn't too bad for halo, but puts it below 2,3,4 and Reach.

Kinda weird to use Halo 4. A year later Xbox One released and slowed 360's sales. Its a different LTD situation. But I guess that's the closest we have.

Yeah I used Halo 4 because that was the last release, here's how the other versions worked out.

Halo 3 - FW 30% of LTD

Reach - FW 37% of LTD

ODST - FW 35% of LTD

We also have to consider that it's improbable that the Xbox One will not grow at the same rate as the 360.



binary solo on 08 November 2015
jlmurph2 said:
binary solo said:
jlmurph2 said:


Looking at Amazon, the digital version of Halo 5 sold a really good amount for October. More than I've seen a digital console game for the monthly. And apparently this number isn't even counting bundle sales. There's more factors at play here these days.

Come on man, you're better than that. You can't link me to a Gaf post from a nobody and call that evidence. The Amazon information is interesting but hard to tell how significant. Still, lets say for argument's sake that H5G-D is 30%, which seems to be quite a high % and fairly rare, and possibly unprecedented for a major AAA release. It puts total US first week at just short of 2 million, if this rumour is correct, which is 20% lower than the 3 main Halo games on 360. If the digital numbers are going to totally make up the difference to past Halo games then the digital % needs to be 60% of Physical. That is massive and I doubt the digital % is over 50%.  So relative to past Halo games Halo 5 is going to be down by a reasonable margin even with digital sales factored in.

What does this tell us? It tells us Halo 5 sold well, but at least with Halo 5 it isn't the driving force it used to be. It also suggests MS needs to start thinking about something else as a premier franchise. Halo can continue to be produced but if they want 1st party games to be part of making substantial hardware gains they need a new powerhouse franchise as well as putting out regular smaller impact games that have a cumulative effect.

You're comparing Halo 5 sales to the Halo 3 days when COD was starting to get it's mass appeal and sold like 1.5m in it's first week WW. And then to the days when Xbox 360 had 43m sold with Halo Reach and 71m sold with Halo 4. To only look at "Oh these Halos sold more" is not a logical way to look at it. I'm sure if XB1 had 43m sold Halo 5 could sell more than Halo Reach and if it had 71m then Halo 5 would sell more than Halo 4.

It doesn't work that way. In the USA Halo's sales have been more or less static since Halo 2. And globally it didn't grow by nearly the same amount as 360 growth over Xb og. Halo sales did not grow in proportion to hardware sales gen on gen, so the lower Halo 5 sales has very little to do with the install base. The Halo demographic is largely gamers who bought Xb og, and therefore Halo is fairly install base immune. As long as the install base is substantially over 10 million Halo will sell Halo numbers.

The rise and rise of CoD is significant, but it seems CoD is well off its peak too. So if CoD was a negative influence on Halo sales, that ibnfluence should be diminished for Halo 5. All that aside the fact remains, the Xbox brand is considerably diminished compared to last gen, and also the Halo brand appears to be somewhat diminished. This means Xbox can't help Halo 5 rise back to it's glory days, and Halo can't help Xbox rise back to its glory days. MS needs to look elsewhere.



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